Here’s a late Christmas present from the BFW staff. Enjoy!
Heading into the first winter break under the leadership of Vincent Kompany, Bayern Munich is atop the Bundesliga table, mildly comfortable in 10th place of the Champions League, and eliminated from the DFB-Pokal. Given the intense scrutiny of hiring a young manager at a big club, Kompany has effectively balanced the pressures of squad management, performance, and rotation.
It would be a little self-serving to give Bayern an A+ after Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen side went undefeated until the very last match of the 2023/24 campaign, but the BFW staff has offered its collective expertise on the following topics:
- Most Valuable Player
- Biggest Surprise
- Biggest Disappointment
- Bundesliga Prediction
- Champions League Prediction
- Tactical Change
- Start/Sub/Sell (a fun exercise where the BFW writer will move players into a different category for the Rückrunde)
LoneStar249
Most Valuable Player: Jamal Musiala
If Musiala took Bayern’s penalty kicks, he would have 23 goals that are only bested by Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski in the Big Five European leagues. Musiala has already surpassed his goal tally from last season and only needs four more goals to set a new career high.
More importantly, Musiala is playing the best soccer of his career. Bayern needs to revamp the offense to maximize Musiala’s strengths and give him the freedom to continue his upward trajectory. That probably means ditching every winger on the current squad, besides Michael Olise, and even a more appropriate counterpart at the number nine position.
To nitpick at his game, he will need to learn how to battle through the relentless fouling from opponents and lack of help from referees. He’ll quickly turn into an international villain if his game starts to suffer because he spends half the game complaining (even justifiably) to the officials.
Biggest Surprise: Alphonso Davies
Six months ago, it was a foregone conclusion that the underperforming Canadian left-back would be leaving for Real Madrid next summer. Instead, Davies has reclaimed his world class form and is on the verge of signing a lucrative extension that will keep him paired with Jamal Musiala as the face of the club for the rest of the decade.
Biggest Disappointment: Mathys Tel
Pegged as Biggest Surprise at the beginning of the season, Tel has underwhelmed rather than having a breakout campaign. He’s only earned 356 minutes and even that feels generous from Kompany. He’s produced zero goals, zero assists, and a mere four shots on target. The French teenager is poised for a January loan to rebuild his confidence and determine if his potential will convert into quality minutes at Bayern.
Bundesliga: 1st Place
The preseason prediction remains unchanged: “There’s literally zero chance that Leverkusen pulls off another immaculate season. Bayern will jump out of the gates quickly and have the Bundesliga wrapped up before May.”
Bayern is sitting comfortably in first place, four points clear of Bayer Leverkusen plus a massive goal differential advantage. Even with the injuries piling up, Bayern has lost only once in the Bundesliga and shaved off three potential matches with the unfortunate loss to Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal.
Champions League: Quarterfinals
Also an unchanged prediction from the preseason, Bayern has not performed well enough this season against elite clubs to expect a deep run in the Champions League. The quarterfinals will count as a solid outcome that can be parlayed into better results in the upcoming five-year window where Bayern will reasonably compete for a double (or treble) every season.
Tactical Change: Primarily defend in the final third against top teams, then counterattack
Vincent Kompany’s squad has been wildly successful against the mid-level and bottom feeders in all competitions. They have been inefficient in the final third but still tend to win comfortably. No change needed in those matches.
However, the constant high line against the top opponents has not yielded the desired results. Wins against PSG and Stuttgart do not come close to balancing out the losses to FC Barcelona, Leverkusen, and Aston Villa, let alone the draws against Dortmund and Frankfurt.
Bayern does not seem to be particularly skilled at playing a low block either. Perhaps the solution is a compromise of philosophies that allows Bayern to drop defensively into the middle third of the field without pressing too high or dropping too deep.
This defensive strategy will give opponents a false sense of security in possession that will also create space behind the opponent’s backline. Upon winning the ball back, Bayern can push high and fast. This plays more to the strengths of Musiala and Leroy Sané rather than Harry Kane but that is a strategic thought that Kompany will have to weigh.
Start/Sub/Sell: Daniel Peretz/Raphaël Guerreiro/Serge Gnabry
As Manuel Neuer recovers from his broken rib, Peretz will be awarded some valuable minutes over the next month. However, Peretz should earn some Bundesliga starts even when Neuer returns to keep both players healthy and in form.
Guerreiro has started 14 matches this season. Besides the wonder goal against Dinamo Zagreb, he has not done anything spectacular. Granted every club needs solid, reliable role players like him. At age 30, it is time for Guerreiro’s minutes to go to younger players like Adam Aznou.
Through 12 starts and over 1,000 minutes, Gnabry has only produced two goals and four assists this season. Bayern simply cannot afford to pay the 29-year old attacker for another two years of substandard play. The major downside is that there will be very few clubs willing to pay his €40M market value or his absurd €19M salary.
RIPLT
Most Valuable Player: Harry Kane
Looking at the stats of Kane and Musiala, you could argue that both players are Bayern’s most valuable players. For the sake of variety, I’ll go Kane on this one. When Kane isn’t playing, you could see that the team plays differently and, to a certain extent, struggles against half-decent opposition (like against Borussia Dortmund). The 31-year-old is after all the main source of Bayern’s goals, and fortunately enough the rest of the team is up to the task of scoring goals when Harry isn’t there.
Biggest Surprise: Alphonso Davies
I’ll admit that I was critical of Davies’ sloppy performances, at the same time confounded as to why Real Madrid wanted this version of him. He’s clearly had his Weetabix because he’s delivering solid outings again and even indicated a preference for extending with Bayern past 2025.
Biggest Disappointment: Leon Goretzka
In what world is two goals and one assist in 15 games an acceptable statistic for someone paid in the upper echelon of Bayern’s wage structure? He’s scored goals, sure, but has he done anything else besides that? If Bayern wants a midfielder/center-back, Javier Fernandez and Lennard Becker are right there waiting to get promoted to the first team.
Bundesliga: 1st Place
Bayern is what some call the Herbstmeister or winter champions—a name given to the team who is top of the Bundesliga that has a high chance of winning the league. Bayern is currently top of the league (only one loss so far) and although they have faltered at times, not a single club in the league has managed to take all three points from them. Leverkusen’s fate seems to have caught up to them as they’re no longer the surprise invincible team from last season.
Champions League: Winners
I know I should be more objective and realistic in this prediction but Bayern are on a good run of games and Vincent Kompany’s tactics gives me enough reason to believe that Finale Dahoam can be won by the host team for the first time in three attempts.
Tactical Change: Step-down backline whilst maintaining high pressure
Stretching back to the days of Hansi Flick, Bayern like to defend high up the pitch. Often this highline is bypassed leaving the Rekordmeister brutally exposed, something that has happened during Vincent Kompany’s time. The Bavarians were in for a rude awakening on MD3 of the Champions League, after which Kompany made the game-changing move of shifting his defense backwards to give them time to deal with attacks and counters from the opposition. While it’s not entirely infallible, the difference is there to see as Bayern have not lost a single game since then.
Start/Sub/Sell: Sacha Boey/Manuel Neuer/Leroy Sané
Boey is one of the few true right-backs that Bayern have at their disposal. After a lengthy absence, he has returned and made the position his own. Yes, there’s Joshua Kimmich and Konrad Laimer but Bayern haven’t had a proper right-back since Benjamin Pavard (who insisted on playing in the middle).
LoneStar249 mentioned above that he’d like Peretz to start ahead of Manuel Neuer, the latter of which I want to pick to sit on the bench. Bayern need a starting-caliber goalkeeper as Neuer’s time is nearing its end. May it be Peretz or someone completely different (Tom Ritzy Hülsmann please!), the change of guard cannot be delayed further.
Even with his Bayern future under threat, Sané has still not shown a sign that he’s fighting for his spot. It’s almost as if he’s content that he probably won’t have a club next year, ditto Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, and Leon Goretzka.
Frank Mo
Most Valuable Player: Joshua Kimmich
After a really difficult 2023/2024 season, there were calls for Bayern Munich to sell Joshua Kimmich and start anew. Yet Vincent Kompany stood behind Kimmich from day one, and he has been repaid with some utterly extraordinary performances. The impact of some other standout players such Jamal Musiala and Harry Kane has been demonstrated by the team’s struggles during the time they missed, yet Kimmich does not have that problem. In fact, he has been on the field for every single minute of every single match. Not even goalkeeper Manuel Neuer can lay claim to the same. And is the only player who plays every minute of every match not the most valuable player on the team?
Biggest Surprise: Adam Aznou
Perhaps some might see this as cheating, considering the youngster has barely played for Bayern’s senior team. But the development Adam Aznou has undergone this season remains incredible, despite precious little game time in the Bundesliga. He was promoted to Bayern II just last season and struggled to nail down a regular spot in the starting XI. However, he had a phenomenal preseason and clearly come out as the winner of preseason, having gathered a lot of minutes in various friendlies. He then was given the captain’s armband to lead Bayern’s U-19s into the UEFA Youth League, was called up to the Moroccan senior team for the first time (despite being excluded from the U-17 Moroccan World Cup squad just months ago) and delivered a man of the match performance in his international debut. He even made his Bundesliga and Champions League debut. Nobody could have seen this kind of development coming in the summer.
Biggest Disappointment: Josip Stanišić
Josip Stanišić’s career at Bayern Munich has been a real rollercoaster, but one constant has been the Croatian’s ability to fight against and succeed over adversity. Nothing defined this fight more than when, after being carelessly pushed out to Bayer Leverkusen, Stanišić fought his way into Die Werkself’s starting lineup and pipped Bayern to the league title. Having signed a new lucrative, long term contract and having finally won recognition from his parent club, the Bayern academy graduate was set to finally succeed at the club. And then he got hurt and missed the entire first half of the season. What a disappointment. Hopefully, Stanišić will have more luck in the Rückrunde.
Bundesliga: 1st place
Vincent Kompany’s style has not quite been perfected yet, but it has demonstrated that even a half baked version of this style can see Bayern dominate Bundesliga games. How brilliant will this team be when Kompany finds the perfect balance and they start regularly clicking? Add that to Bayern’s solid four-point lead at the top of the table, and it is hard to imagine anything but the Bavarians taking back the crown from Leverkusen.
Champions League: Winners
Why not? People like to point out the poor record against top clubs, but poor fortune and sloppy finishing were the decisive factors in many of these games, not poor performances. The draw and loss against Leverkusen, the draw against Borussia Dortmund, the draw to Eintracht Frankfurt (and even the win against Paris Saint Germain) saw Bayern demonstrate their ability to dominate even very good opposition only for the team underperform their xG and get unlucky (Leverkusen scoring with their first chance, Neuer getting a red card, Frankfurt getting a last minute equalizer come to mind). Perhaps the universe will seek to restore the balance of luck and grant Bayern some good luck in the knockout rounds of the Champions League? Probably not, but Kompany’s Bayern are good enough that it is impossible to write them off at this stage.
Tactical Change: A different structure when building out from the back
Kompany’s Bayern are capable of utter domination. Once they are in the opposition half, the forwards will torment the defenders with their trickery, give them no chance to breathe the few times they lose the ball, the physically dominant defenders win the ball back and the whole cycle begins again.
But only they are in the opponents’ half. The team can be really bereft of ideas trying to build up play from their own half. PSG, Mainz and others demonstrated this very well. The team has this weird strategy where the two defensive midfielders run towards their own box during a goal kick, the ball is played out wide and the ball is just…launched up either flank. I don’t really get it. At times, it just seems as if Bayern hope the ball will magically make its’ way to the opponents’ half. Bayern also lacks either a physical presence or real pace up front, so there is no chance of booting the ball up the field and having physically dominant forwards secure the ball. It results in a team that struggled to progress the ball up the field.
Start/Sub/Sell: Leroy Sané/Adam Aznou/Serge Gnabry
I know Leroy Sané ended the year as a regular member of the starting XI, but I want it to stay that way. I retain faith that, of the three maligned wingers in Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry and Sané, the latter retains the most unlocked talent that could still be of use to Bayern. Give him the playing time he needs to get past his mental blocks and perhaps Bayern fans can finally see the best of Sané long enough for him to warrant a contract extension.
Kompany’s hesitance to give Adam Aznou game time irks me. He has had several perfect chance to reward Aznou for his phenomenal development and give him game time, but he has usually . Just treat him like a sub and give him some minutes! He won’t cause Bayern to somehow concede four goals in 10 minutes, no matter what Kompany believes.
Serge Gnabry’s time at Bayern seems to be nearing its end. His explosive start to the season reminded everyone why he is so special, with his incredible finishing and two footedness revealing an utterly lethal footballer. However, he has lost his speed and he just cannot consistently demonstrate his quality. Gnabry is still a talented footballer, but at this point in time I think both the player and the club would benefit from a fresh start.
Samrin
Most Valuable Player: Jamal Musiala
This does not require analysis. The stats show it, the eye test shows it, everything shows it. He is the most talented player at Bayern Munich. He was at the center of all good things at Bayern Munich; at times, he was unplayable, magical even. He is still only 21 but has taken a step up this season; Bayern needs to rest him more (so that I can watch Thomas Müller play the number 10 position) so that he does not become injury prone.
Biggest Surprise: Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka was down and out at the beginning of the season, down the pecking order. It seemed that everyone but Goretzka would play. He held it together and scored a goal against Dinamo Zagreb in a 9-2 win for Bayern in the Champions League. An injury to Aleksandr Pavlović saw the doors open for Goretzka. Preferred to João Palhinha eventually by Vincent Kompany, he often made late runs into the box which proved to add to Bayern’s attack. Welcome back Leon!
Biggest Disappointment: Decision making at the back
This cost Bayern massively in the Champions League and yet, it would be incorrect to say it was a failing. It happened in games and cost Bayern points but Bayern’s style of play almost leaves the door open for some defensive failings. Bayern remains at the top of the table in the Bundesliga and with a good chance to qualify to the quarterfinals directly in the Champions League. A defensive error (not a howler) might have cost Bayern in the Pokal though.
Bundesliga: 1st (tentatively)
Bayern’s performance against RB Leipzig showed that Bayern is championship material. Coupled with Eintracht Frankfurt’s recent failings and Leipzig’s poor run, the title seems within sight; Bayern is nine points ahead of both the aforementioned teams. However, Leverkusen is only four points behind and it is not time to discount them just yet.
Champions League: Quarterfinals
Every new coach takes time to learn and there is no competition in which experience matters as much as the Champions League; there are some exceptions to this of course. Kompany is new to this; a quarterfinal might be a good return for him in this competition. In any case, the prospect of Finale Dahoam is tasty but one that might bring up some horrendous memories for quite a few fans.
Tactical Change: Speed it up
Bayern played lightning quick football against Leipzig. Quite a few times this season, Bayern has been guilty of moving the ball around too slowly in the final third; let’s hope the speed against Leipzig remains a constant moving forward. Sometimes, slowing down the game is necessary but it might not be the smart thing to do when the team is 1-0 up and has a defense that is not quite a José Mourinho defense.
Start/Sub/Sell: Josip Stanišić/More rotation at center-back/Sacha Boey
Josip Stanišić was perhaps set to start in the backline but injury prevented him from doing so. He can play at right back as well as at center-back; he also has tactical flexibility, able to play in a back three and a back four. He can play at right back instead of Sacha Boey. Boey is not a bad player by any means; however, he has never quite managed to settle in at Bayern, especially due to injuries, and this squad might not need him. Sending him out on loan might be another option. As for Kim Min-jae, building a defensive partnership is important, but, perhaps Hiroki Itō should be given a chance once he returns from injury; Goretzka can also play as a center back of course. Min-jae should continue to play but some rotation at center back might keep him fresh and help with decision making. The same applies to Dayot Upamecano.
RuneKingThor
Most Valuable Player: Jamal Musiala
You’ve heard plenty about this boy, he has been a standout performer for club and country. There is of course lots of room to improve because the potential the kid’s shown has spoilt the fans. The expectations are nothing less than him growing into a stature of player belonging to the highest echelons of footballing performers on the biggest stages of the sport.
Biggest Surprise: Michael Olise
To be honest, the consistency and creativity of Olise betrays the fact that this is his first season at Bayern Munich. The linkup play with his teammates reflects the chemistry that he’s quickly built in the first six months at the club. He is the joint top assist provider alongside Harry Kane with nine assists in all competitions for Bayern. Olise’s finishing skills have also come very much in handy. His nine goals in all competitions is only behind Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala.
Biggest Disappointment: Bayern winger trio
Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry were the Bayern winger trio meant to replace the legendary duo of Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben. Not only have they lacked in productivity but also have not brought leadership in situations where everything seems to go south. Coman surprisingly or unsurprisingly continues to sky his crosses with hardly 17 percent crossing accuracy compared to the Olise who is at 27 percent. Gnabry’s prolonged dip in form has meant we miss his key ability — lethality in the box. Sané’s connection with Bambi aka Jamal Musiala last season was sight to watch. Leroy too has dropped off. The Bayern number ten created 12 chances in the Bundesliga. Olise, his primary competition at right wing position created 30 chances.
The fall in this trio’s contribution has led to the burden of creativity up front centered around Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise. However, concentrated source of attack makes it easier to stop as was shown in the Mainz game. Shutting down Bambi was enough to quell a lot of attacks before they even happened. Bayern need their trio back, but whether they can ever truly be back remains to be seen.
Bundesliga: 1st Place
Only one game lost, a four-point lead and a goal difference of 34(!), more than double that of second place Leverkusen’s 16. A good job by Kompany so far. If he can continue what he is doing, that should in fact get Bayern past the finish line. While his tactics for the cup games still needs plenty of work, that is not the case in the Bundesliga. Kompany has found his groove with the squad. Bayern have created 199 chances and scored 42 goals scored from open play in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen are a distant second at 167 chances created and no other team has crossed the 150 mark. Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt will be giving Bayern a run for their money, but fending them off and consolidating a lead is definitely possible.
Champions League: Semifinals
A repeated pattern of great performances that fell short due to either mistakes at the back, abysmal finishing and sometimes just poor luck has plagued Bayern Munich in their most coveted trophy, the Champions League. The only outlier was in the year 2020. That was four years ago. The fact that we have failed to break the pattern again has been a disappointing failure. With the current crop of wingers not stepping up to share the load up front, getting past semi-finals will need a miracle. Even a miracle can’t do much beyond the semis.
Tactical Change: Rotate more and develop the killing stroke in big games
My take on the tactical change is from a different viewpoint. First off, credit where it is due. Vincent Kompany’s hiring for the Bayern job was severely under the radar and rightly so. A young, unproven manager with little to no credibility in managing the very best teams was a potential disaster in the making. It is a major relief that six months past that, no catastrophe has occurred . Credit to Vincent Kompany, the board and the systems in place at Bayern that has helped the new coach find his feet.
Like with other young managers who have a relatively free hand to establish their styles, Kompany too has been constantly tinkering with his tactics. He has a long way to go before any “fine tuning” can be suggested.
Having said that, two general aspects are to be considered. First, the search for stability should not hamper fitness and therefore greater rotation is very much needed to manage workload and avoid injuries. Second, Kompany needs to navigate for the unwinnable situations.
It’s all too common a sight for Bayern fans. The team outplays the opposition, creates beautiful chances but the ball just refuses to go into the net. Developing super subs, penalty drawing plays, creating dead ball situations and finishing under pressure. For example, Leverkusen has won the most corners in the Bundesliga at 110, compared to Bayern at 99 corners. Being able to step up winning corners, drawing fouls near the box is often key to unlocking stubborn low blocks. Placing even more emphasis than we already do on the above could perhaps change our fortunes this season and we can make our own miracles happen.
TLDR: Let him cook.
Start/Sub/Sell: Aleksandar Pavlović/Mathys Tel/Kingsley Coman
Pavlovic and Tel need more game time. There is plenty of potential in the lads. Pavlovic has the calm and the skills to start against any team. Kompany playing Tel on the left has been a fruitless experiment. He belongs in the box. Coman’s injury prone record and unimpressive crossing makes it a difficult but required choice for the sell option. In all fairness the trio of Sané, Gnabry and Coman have all been below par and selling any of them is a viable option.
Looking for more thoughts and analysis on the Bundesliga title race? Awesome, then check out our Bavarian Podcast Works — Flagship Show on Spotify, or below:
