Reece James set the ball off on its arc, low beyond the far post, and then watched it bend back towards goal and sneak inside the bottom corner.
Off he ran in celebration. A beautiful finish, a rescued for point for Chelsea against Bournemouth but, above all, a collector’s item, something rarely seen in the Premier League these days: a goal scored direct from a free-kick.
James’s effort was only the seventh in the top flight this season. At this stage last term, we had seen just four. There were only 11 all season, the lowest in a Premier League campaign since 1997-98. Not a single free-kick was scored at the Euros in the summer.
Only five seasons ago, in 2019-20, we saw 26 scored across the season. In 2013-14, nearly 40. In 2007-08, more than that.
That season, when 41 free-kicks found the net, one in every 25 Premier League goals was a free-kick. Last season, it was one in every 111. This one, before this weekend, one in every 90. One of football’s most beautiful brushstrokes is now, sadly, a dying art.
Gone are the days bending it like David Beckham. Gone even are the days of whipping it like James Ward-Prowse. So, what happened? When did the free-kicks start to die?
Reece James became just the seventh player to score a direct free-kick in the Premier League when he netted a late equaliser for Chelsea against Bournemouth in midweek
VICTORY FOR THE NERDS
We see fewer goals from free-kicks because fewer players shoot. It’s that simple.
Go back to 2010-11 and for every free-kick a team won in the final third of the pitch, about one in 3.5 of resulted in a shot at goal. This season, it’s once in every six. The numbers are steadily falling.
That’s because, in an age of analytics and Expected Goals, the number bods are king, especially when there is so much at stake for Premier League clubs and managers.
How often do we hear commentators describe a player ready to ‘try their luck’ or who ‘fancies their chances’. There are too many riches riding on it to leave it to fate or fortune.
About five per cent of free-kicks go on, so says the available data that covers the past 22 seasons. That number rises or falls by the odd percentage point depending on the season but it’s remained steady enough. So, about one in 20 attempts.
That’s not great odds when you need a goal. Even Ward-Prowse only scores about one in eight.
‘Set pieces can turn games so you want to do things that statistically give you a better chance of scoring than a player trying to wrap it into the top corner from 30 yards,’ a head of performance at a top Premier League club told Mail Sport.
‘It’s now left less to “this player fancies a go” to what is statistically the best decision for each team and each moment. Set-piece analysts realise the xG to score is significantly low in situations like that compared to a cross that causes chaos in the box.
‘It just doesn’t make as much sense to go direct like Beckham in the old days.’
A good job there were no analysts within earshot when Becks lined up his famous effort against Greece all those years ago…
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GUNNERS DON’T GAMBLE
Arsenal are, perhaps, the biggest example of this change. The Gunners have won 128 free-kicks in the final third since the start of last season and gone for goal just eight times.
The last league free-kick they scored was Martin Odegaard against Burnley in September 2021, two months after their recently-muraled set-piece coach Nicolas Jover’s arrival. Since then, none.
With the Gunners a goal down to north London rivals Tottenham on Wednesday night, Odegaard won a free-kick slightly to the right of goal a little about 25 yards out. Very much ‘in territory’.
But instead of taking aim for the top corner, Odegaard instead clipped the ball to the back post towards his team-mates in the box.
Arsenal do not tend to shoot from free-kicks, and their last direct goal in the league from one was scored by Martin Odegaard in 2021
Compare this to the Arsenal side in Arsene Wenger’s final season that won 93 free-kicks in the final third and went for goal from 30 of them. They still scored none.
Some teams still like to chance their arm. Brighton have gone for goal with 28 per cent of their final-third free kicks this season, Chelsea nearly a quarter. The latter are the only side to score from more than one of them this term.
But the pattern is clear. Since the start of 2017-18, no Premier League campaign has ended with more than 400 shots on goal from a free-kick. Last season saw just 283. Before then, though, every season saw more than 400 taken going back to when data started being collected in 2003-04.
WILL WE SEE ANOTHER WARD-PROWSE?
There may be no Beckham these days but there are still players capable of putting a free-kick into the top corner. James, for one. Trent Alexander-Arnold, James Maddison, Kieran Trippier.
Ward-Prowse, on loan at Nottingham Forest from West Ham, is one away from equalling Beckham’s record of 18 Premier League free-kick goals.
He’s the last of the prolific era of free-kick specialists. He scored two in each of 2018-20 and 2019-20, four in 2020-21, another four the next season and another three the season after that. He’s not scored one in almost two years.
James Ward-Prowse is just one free-kick goal behind David Beckham’s record
James Maddison is the only player since 2018-19 to score multiple free-kicks in multiple seasons
Since the start of 2018-19, only Maddison has scored multiple free-kicks in multiple seasons but even he had to wait four campaigns to do it a second time.
Of the 13 players in Premier League history to score at least nine free-kicks, Ward-Prowse and Maddison are the only current players on that list.
‘The art of free-kicks is kind of being lost to the system a bit,’ added the analyst. ‘Ward-Prowse spent hours and hours as a kid practising it but it’s not a required skill that people look for as much anymore. There’s so much that supersedes it in the modern game, their work-rate, their ability in open play, all these things. It’s nice to have but it’s not a pre-requisite for what you need.’
So, enjoy those free-kick stunners whenever you see one and cherish them because they are becoming part of a bygone age. As is so often the case in football these days, when everything is on the line, analysis triumphs over artistry.
