A new study has revealed which club in the Premier League has been the biggest under-achiever in the 2023-24 season, based on their expected points compared to spending.
Manchester City pipped Arsenal to the title at the end of a dramatic title race that initially looked set to see Liverpool also vie for the championship on the final day before dropping away.
In doing so, Pep Guardiola’s side made it four in a row – the first side to ever do so – vindicating their heavy yet intuitive spending over the duration of the ex-Barcelona boss’ tenure once again.
In fact, Man City were one of 12 sides to see their transfer business yield positive results judging by a study from Twenty First Group for The Times.
The study calculates the expected points for each team in the Premier League based on figures from their most recent financial accounts (2022-23), to show which club has proven the best value for money over the course of the season.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City won the Premier League on the final day after beating West Ham 3-1
Manchester United were unsurprisingly among the biggest spenders according to the data
The expected tally of points is reached based on the historic impact of spending on accrued points. According to the Times, teams that spend double the median expenditure usually end up on 66 points, while those spending 20 per cent less earn 42.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given their huge expenditure in recent transfer windows, Chelsea have come out as the biggest underachievers in the list.
The Blues managed to secure Europa League football despite a very poor first half of the campaign, yet Mauricio Pochettino left on Tuesday night by mutual consent with his future having been under heavy scrutiny throughout the tail end of the season.
Yet after a total expenditure of £607million on wages and amortisation in 2022-23 and another £75m in agents’ fees in 2023-24 – a league-high total of £682m – the club were expected to earn 87 points, some 24 fewer than their actual return of 63.
‘Chelsea’s sizeable amortisation and agents fees costs — both at least 20 per cent more than the next-highest clubs — meant they had the highest overall costs in the league,’ said chief intelligence officer of Twenty First Group Omar Chaudhuri.
‘Their budget, relative to the average team in the league, would historically have delivered around 87 points, so 63 points represents a significant underachievement.
‘However, their form from April onwards was in line with an 87-point season, suggesting they might be on the path to performing closer in line with their budget next season.’
The Blues are joined at the bottom of the list by fellow big-hitters Manchester United whose 60 points were deemed 14 below their expected target following an outlay of £535m in the same three categories.
Mauricio Pochettino left Chelsea by mutual consent on Tuesday evening following a sixth place finish
The Argentine boss had lost only three games in 2024 in a brilliant climax to the campaign
Manchester United also fell far below their expected points after total costs of £535million
Sheffield United are sandwiched between the two giants with a -21 point difference from their £118m expenditure in a woeful campaign that sees the Blades immediately return to the Championship, with Burnley level with United on -14 although they spent far less (£129m).
At the other end of the table, the four teams that secured Champions League football in Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa take up the top four spots in the pound-for-pound success table.
The Gunners lead the way, having over performed by a stunning 27 points – more than the season tallies of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United – with their total costs of £399m predicted to earn them 62 points that would have placed them seventh in the 2023-24 final table.
Mikel Arteta’s side invested 25-40 per cent less than the likes of Chelsea and United, but out-performed them by 26 and 29 points respectively in the end.
Chaudhuri added: ‘Arsenal’s level of overachievement exceeds even the level Liverpool achieved as they competed for titles between 2018 and 2022, but it hasn’t been enough to tip them into the 90-point range needed to win the league.
‘Manchester City continue to overachieve. Their spending has been comparable to Chelsea and Manchester United, who have shown that £500million+ annual spend is not a guarantee of 80 points, let alone 90.’
Second were Unai Emery’s Aston Villa with a 14-point over performance, followed by Liverpool (+10) and champions City (+9).
Manchester City interestingly had the second highest overall spend – £629m – yet finished fourth in this study, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of their recruitment department.
Mikel Arteta’s side finished top of the pound-for-pound success table after over achieving by 27 points
Sheffield United finished the lowest of the newly-promoted sides in terms of under-achieving, finishing 21 points shy of their expected total
Newcastle and Bournemouth both finished seven points better off than expected with outlays of £292m and £157m respectively, ahead of four teams tied on +6.
West Ham (£216m), Crystal Palace (£182m), and Brighton (£172m) all spent roughly similar amounts and finished ninth (52 points), 10th (49 points) and 11th (48 points) respectively.
As for Tottenham, who also ended up six points better off than their expected tally, they splashed £379million to finish 10th in the pound-for-pound table behind the other three.
Fulham ended up three points better off than expected judging by the data after an outlay of £197m earned them 47 points, while Brentford performed exactly as expected ending up on 39 points after splashing £138m.
Both Everton (48 points) and Wolves (46 points) finished just a point worse off than they ought to have, with the Toffees’ actually ending the season on 40 points due to points penalties though the study has not taken this into account.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa pulled off a remarkable campaign to finish in the Champions League spots, some 14 points above expectation
Manchester City won a sixth Premier League title in seven years but only finished fourth
| Team | Wages (2023) | Amortisation (2023) | Agents Fees (2024) | Total costs | Expected Points | Actual Points | Difference | |
| Arsenal | £235m | £139m | £25m | £399m | 62 | 89 | 27 | |
| Aston Villa | £194m | £93m | £21m | £308m | 54 | 68 | 14 | |
| Liverpool | £373m | £108m | £32m | £512m | 72 | 82 | 10 | |
| Man City | £423m | £145m | £61m | £629m | 82 | 91 | 9 | |
| Newcastle United | £187m | £87m | £19m | £292m | 53 | 60 | 7 | |
| Bournemouth | £100m | £41m | £16m | £157m | 41 | 48 | 7 | |
| Crystal Palace | £131m | £40m | £11m | £182m | 43 | 49 | 6 | |
| West Ham | £137m | £65m | £14m | £216m | 46 | 52 | 6 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | £128m | £33m | £11m | £172m | 42 | 48 | 6 | |
| Tottenham | £251m | £109m | £20m | £379m | 60 | 66 | 6 | |
| Fulham | £139m | £46m | £12m | £197m | 44 | 47 | 3 | |
| Brentford | £99m | £31m | £8m | £138m | 39 | 39 | 0 | |
| Everton | £159m | £78m | £11m | £247m | 49 | 48 | -1 | |
| Wolves | £142m | £79m | £13m | £234m | 47 | 46 | -1 | |
| Luton Town | £61m | £16m | £2m | £80m | 34 | 26 | -8 | |
| Nottingham Forest | £145m | £41m | £13m | £199m | 44 | 36 | -8 | |
| Burnley | £86m | £36m | £7m | £129m | 38 | 24 | -14 | |
| Man United | £331m | £170m | £34m | £535m | 74 | 60 | -14 | |
| Sheffield United | £81m | £32m | £5m | £118m | 37 | 16 | -21 | |
| Chelsea | £404m | £203m | £75m | £682m | 87 | 63 | -24 | |
| *Data from Twenty First Group, via The Times | ||||||||
Luton and Nottingham Forest than fall in 15th and 16th place respectively, the Hatters spending a league low £80m in the three cost categories but finishing eight shy of their 34 expected.
Forest also missed out on their expected tally by eight points, having been predicted to reach 44 – the same as Fulham – having spent £199m.
Overall, as many might predict, the study suggests a trend of the clubs finishing higher up the table operating on the most efficient financial system, recruiting players for prices that either under or accurately equate to their output on the field.
Likewise, those that fell lower down the table seemed to spend inflated amounts on players that don’t necessarily seem to make as much of a difference on the field, Chelsea and Man United notably among the biggest spenders.
