Written by billythekid
Evenly Matched Sides – Will Home Form Tell?
After our recent visit to Brentford before the international break, our side’s recent good run of results against the top six sides came to a halt. Their fans at home had been treated to 24 goals in five games. After our game finished 3-2, that total rose to 29 goals. Also, the Bees are the highest scorers at home in the Premier League with 18 goals and also top for conceding the most goals at home with 11.
Our next game back is at Dean Court on Saturday at 3 pm against another seaside club Brighton. This should be a close game between these two clubs, after eleven games, Brighton are 6th with 19 points and AFCB 12th with 15 points. Both sides recently beating Manchester City 2-1 at home. AFCB have won their last three home games.
AFC Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion
AFCB Win
Draw
BHA Win
This season Brighton have a new manager, Fabian Hürzeler. He is the youngest Premier League manager/head coach in Premier League history at 31-years-old. He was born in Houston Texas, but brought up in Munich, his father is Swiss and mother German. His previous club as manager, was Hamburg side FC St. Pauli.
He replaced Roberto De Zerbi who decided to move on to pastures new and joined Marseille. De Zerbi joined Brighton in September 2022 and had two seasons at the club. In his first season, Brighton finished 6th in the Premier League, the second season 11th.
Hurzeker’s first game was away at Goodison Park against Everton and his side won 0-3. Their only other away win was 0-1 against Newcastle United. Drawn 1-1 away against Arsenal. They have lost two games on their travels, 4-2 against Chelsea and 2-1 against Liverpool. At home they have beaten Manchester United 2-1, Spurs 3-2 and before the international break Manchester City 2-1. Drawn 0-0 with Ipswich Town and 2-2 against Nottingham Forest and Wolves. They are so far undefeated at home.
The last time our two sides met was towards the end of April at Dean Court. Marcus Senesi opening the scoring in the 13th minute and it was 1-0 at halftime. In the second half Enes Unal put the Cherries further ahead and Justin Kluivert added a third with two minutes of normal time to go. That was the final score.
In all our meetings in the league at home with Brighton, AFCB have W 27, D 17, L 11.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 45, D 29, L 41.
AFCB Team News
Unfortunately, Ryan Christie is suspended for this game. The latest injury addition is Antoine Semenyo, reported to have withdrawn from the Ghana squad due to an injury, also Milos Kerkez withdrew from the Hungary squad due to knee problems. Julian Araujo has undergone surgery on his hamstring. Hopefully, Antoine Semenyo, Milos Kerkez and Dango Ouattara will be fit for this game.
AFCB Player To Watch
Our Brazilian striker Evanilson has settled into the team and is now showing why our club signed him with 3 goals in his last three games.
Brighton Team News
They have nine players on the injury list. But some could be back for Saturday.
Brighton Player To Watch
Against Manchester City in their last game, it was two substitutes returning from injury that caught the eye. Joao Pedro and Matt O’Riley were also the Brighton scorers. Pedro has scored 3 goals and an assist in his last four league games, twice as a substitute. Another player is Danny Welbeck, 6 goals in 11 appearances, his highest tally in a Premier League season since he scored the same number in the 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, last season his tally was 5 goals. Kaoru Mitoma is also a threat on the wing.
The Referee
Stuart Atwell is in charge of this game. He was also the referee for our away game against Everton which AFCB won 2-3, with three late goals.
Matt Stevenson added…
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Brighton. These were two home games (Wolves and Man City) and two away games (Newcastle and Liverpool) which is a tough run. Brighton have gained 7 points, which is a good return, although the xG suggests that this should maybe have been 2. Newcastle were the better team but lost, and the games against Wolves and Man City were equal, with Liverpool being the better team. Brighton have scored 6 goals and conceded 5 with xG estimating 5.23 goals with 7.26 conceded.
Brighton have had 5 different goal scorers with only Welbeck having more than 1. 4 players have had assists, with Georginio having 2.
The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. The opposition has been so varied that there is not a clear pattern. In the away games, almost everyone was in the Brighton half for Newcastle, with a few more getting forward at Liverpool. At home, Wolves sit deep meaning that Brighton were advanced, whereas against Man City, Brighton were understandably, again defensive.
The following graph compares summary stats of Brighton and AFCB over the last 4 games, although our games have also been tough with Arsenal / A Villa / Man C / Brentford.
Goal attempts per game are similar, although Brighton have had more big chances, but have scored less goals. We have conceded significantly more attempts, but less big chances, with it appearing that a quarter of the chances Brighton concede are big. xG is in AFCB’s favour, as is xGc.
Neither side have had more than 50% possession with pass completion being about 80% for both teams. We have been creating more chances from open play, but conceding more chances from set pieces, which is a result of having played Arsenal and Brentford.
Your say…
Topfarrier said…
Thanks for that….interesting stats….I expected Brighton to have more possession than that….would suggest they’re playing a lot differently under their new manager……I think last seasons game was the only time we started with two up top….would we do that again?…..think Dango had another one of his mercurial games at left back….just saying….. don’t think Christie started either. – To join the conversation, click here.
