Sports Mole takes a look at some of the key stats and facts ahead of Sunday’s top-of-the-table Premier League showdown between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield.
For the first time since April 2017, Manchester City will enter a football match as underdogs when they travel to Anfield for a top-of-the-table clash with Premier League leaders Liverpool on Sunday.
Who in the right mind would have envisaged European minnows San Marino winning more games than Pep Guardiola‘s side in the month of November? No one – not even San Marino themselves, but the Citizens are indeed reeling after a run of six matches without a win in all competitions.
After losing five games in a row, including a heavy 4-0 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League last weekend, Man City threw away a three-goal lead with less than 15 minutes remaining to draw 3-3 with Feyenoord in the Champions League on Tuesday.
In stark contrast, Liverpool have made a sensational start to life under new boss Arne Slot, who has won 17, drawn one and lost just one of his 19 matches in charge of the Reds across all competitions, leading his team to victory in each of their last six matches.
Liverpool secured a 2-0 Champions League win over holders Real Madrid on Wednesday and they return to Anfield seeking to end the week on an almighty high by beating reigning Premier League champions Man City, who currently sit eight points behind them in the top-flight standings.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at some of the key stats and facts ahead of Sunday’s showdown and what victory would mean for both clubs in the race for the title.
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What will a win mean for Liverpool in PL title race?
Liverpool may have only won one of their last nine Premier League encounters with Man City (D5 L3), but they will be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top against Guardiola’s injury-plagued and defensively frail Citizens side on Sunday.
Victory for the Merseyside giants will see them move a whopping 11 points clear of Man City, and in each of the previous 32 Premier League seasons, only three times have teams come from 11 or more points behind at any stage in a campaign to win the title – Manchester United in 1992-93 (12 points) and 1995-96 (12 points), and Arsenal in 1997-98 (13 points).
Man United are the only team in Premier League history who have had an 11-point lead after 13 games, and this was in the 1993-94 season when went on to win the title under former boss Sir Alex Ferguson.
Man City, meanwhile, have never managed to win the Premier League title after being behind by more than 10 points in a campaign, and defeat against Liverpool on Sunday would see them become the first Premier League champions to lose four consecutive games the following season.
Success over Man City would give Liverpool a huge advantage over the reigning champions and a psychological boost, as they continue to chase down their first title since 2019-20, but the gap at the summit could be nine points and not 11 at the end of this weekend if at least one of Chelsea, Arsenal or Brighton & Hove Albion win in their respective fixtures.
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What will a win or draw means for Man City in PL title race?
Many will argue that it is difficult to back Man City coming out on top on Sunday considering the plethora of flaws that have been exposed during a miserable slump, as well as their terrible record at Anfield in the Premier League.
Indeed, the Citizens have only won one of their last 21 visits to Liverpool in the top flight (D7 L13) – a 4-1 triumph in February 2021 during a Coronavirus-hit campaign without fans in attendance. Man City’s last win at Anfield with supporters in the stadium was back in May 2003 when they won 2-1, courtesy of two goals from Nicolas Anelka.
In addition, the away team have won just six of the 54 Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Man City – the lowest percentage (11%) of any fixture to be played more than 30 times in the division’s history.
However, all hope is not lost for Guardiola and co, as their team have won five and drawn one of their last six Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table. Having said that, the Citizens’ last such defeat was a 3-1 loss at Liverpool in November 2019 when the Reds went on to lift the title.
If Man City were to beat Liverpool on Sunday, they would end the weekend where they started it, in second place, but they would move to within five points of Slot’s side with 25 games remaining to claw back the deficit, while a draw would see the two teams remain eight points apart.
The Citizens have previously clawed back deficits between eight and 10 points to win the Premier League title on six occasions, with all of those achieved in later stages of a campaign compared to now.
In four of Guardiola’s six Premier League title-winning seasons, Man City have overturned gaps of eight points or more, so there is reason for Citizens supporters to be optimistic heading into the next two-thirds of the campaign, as long as their miserable form does not continue for much longer.
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Defensive differences: Liverpool look stronger as Man City look much weaker
Slot has seamlessly taken the baton from Jurgen Klopp and his Liverpool side have picked up four more points this term compared to their first 12 Premier League matches of last season.
Only a few subtle tweaks have been made to Liverpool’s style of play under Slot, who has made the Reds a stronger unit from a defensive perspective, which has evidently benefited his team thus far.
Liverpool have faced 37 fewer shots and have conceded two fewer goals in the Premier League compared to last season, while they have also taken 35 fewer shots and have subsequently scored three fewer goals.
Meanwhile, Man City have looked increasingly vulnerable at the back, conceding 17 goals during their six-game winless run. Only two teams in Europe’s top-five league – Bayern Munich and Getafe – have actually given up fewer chances than the Citizens’ eight per match on average, but the quality of chances that they are giving away is nothing short of alarming.
Indeed, the shots Man City have given up have been worth 0.155 xG on average, meaning teams historically score those chances 15.5% of the time, and this is currently the highest of all the sides in Europe’s top-five leagues.
In the Premier League, only Ipswich Town (49), Southampton (44), Leicester City (44) and Crystal Palace (38) have faced more big chances in the Premier League this season than Man City (37). According to Opta, a ‘big chance’ is defined as a chance from which the attacking player would usually be expected to score.
Meanwhile, Man City have faced the most big chances in the Premier League (30 in seven games) since Ballon d’or winner Rodri sustained an ACL injury against Arsenal in September.
With the Citizens conceding plenty of high-quality chances and Liverpool creating them – Slot’s side scoring the second-most goals (24) in the Premier League thus far – you should not be surprised to see the hosts have at least a few efforts on goal on Sunday.
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