We are not yet five games into the 2023-24 season but already fans, pundits and super computers are making their predictions for how the final Premier League table will look come May. There is a long way to go, it’s early days, game of two halves.. you know the clichés.
I think we will be up there with the best by the time summer returns next year but as the first four games have shown, it is hugely competitive this season.
Possibly more so than the last, where several “top teams” struggled with ageing squads, managerial problems, or being owned by Todd Boehly.
Despite Brighton winning three out of four games so far by two or three goal margins, we are sixth. Five clubs above us and one below have yet to lose a match.
Don’t get me wrong, it has been a brilliant start with us topping the table for the first time and racking up more attempts on goal than anyone else in the Premier League.
Just as one defeat does not mean we have been ruined and completely doomed to relegation by the loss of Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister, three big wins does not mean for certain that the Champions League beckons.
Manchester City will barely drop a point again this season with Pep Guardiola still at the helm at the Etihad Stadium and Erling Haaland leading a clinical and ruthless attack.
Arsenal have not repeated their early runaway success from last season, but are clearly top four contenders once more.
It seems likely Spurs under Ange Postecoglou – who is incredibly likeable in my opinion – are going to do better this season, even without Harry Kane.
A rebuilt and revitalised Liverpool team look to have adapted and gelled quickly. Manchester United may be set for a troubled season on and off the pitch, but who knows. Mauricio Pochettino may yet even make something from the huge and costly Chelsea squad at his disposal.
West Ham look competitive and like us have done well in the transfer market. I wouldn’t write off Saudi-bankrolled Newcastle as top four challengers either, despite the manner in which the Albion comfortably beat them at the Amex.
Where then do Brighton fit in? Injury to Julio Enciso has already thrown us one curve ball, but the arrival of Ansu Fati to plug the gap and potentially improve the side can balance that out. Jakub Moder and Enock Mwepu have been lost in previous seasons and we have adapted.
We have the Under 23s, a reservoir of loan players and the January window to top up the squad if needed once the season reaches its halfway point.
Of course, that window could work against us if huge offers for Evan Ferguson, Kaoru Mitoma and others emerge. But again, the sale of Leandro Trossard to Arsenal in January did not dent our progress.
VAR might cost us points, as PGMOL admitted and apologised for on numerous occasions last season.
In a league where fine margins are the norm and one goal or two points can be the difference between fifth and seventh – Europa League or nothing – getting decisions right matters. The Albion were let down in that department in 2022-23.
The biggest question for Brighton to answer is how will the squad cope with the number of games and European travel?
Will we see a greater number of players suspended with more yellow cards promised as part of a clampdown on certain offences?. All of this, as I said in my previous column, will take its toll on the squad.
Experienced hands like Adam Lallana, Danny Welbeck and James Milner can guide younger players through the stresses and strains of a continental campaign – but may well fall victim to injuries themselves.
No matter how well Roberto De Zerbi has the team playing, many factors which could have an impact are largely outside of his control.
Suspensions, injuries, bad refereeing, strong runs by other teams or further changes in the January transfer window could mean we miss out narrowly – whether on winning a domestic cup, in the Europa League or challenging for the top four.
That said, there is a strong chance in my view that Lewis Dunk lifts some silverware this season in one of the competitions outside the Premier League.
Wherever we finish at the end of the season, be it fourth, sixth or 10th, I believe winning a trophy would firmly establish us as one of the Premier League’s top sides and as a serious challenger for a Champions League place in 2024-25.
Who knows, maybe even a title challenge?
Warren Morgan @WarrenBHAFC
