With very little prompting, it was Daniel Farke who drew a comparison between Leeds United on his watch and Leeds United under Marcelo Bielsa.
He was halfway through a press conference a few weeks back when he referenced the fact Leeds’ points tally in this season’s Championship was tracking ahead of 2019-20, the year Bielsa magicked them to its title. Something in Farke felt the urge to talk up his team’s performance, although increasingly he has been preaching to the converted.
If Leeds do go up in May under his guidance, history will record certain differences between Farke and the last coach to take them into the Premier League.
Farke’s dressing room, pound for pound, is stronger than Bielsa’s was then and perhaps for that reason, there is not the same curiosity in how momentum is building. The aura around Bielsa was in no small way the product of him taking an also-ran squad and soaking it in excellence. But it is also true that Leeds were not asked to get out of a league as ferociously competitive at the top as this one is.
What Leeds had four years ago, and what Farke has given them again, was cast-iron quality at both ends of the pitch.
Bielsa was renowned for his all-out attack but after how it ended for him at Elland Road, it is easily forgotten that in the year of promotion, no side in the division could touch Leeds’ defensive record. In an average game that season, Bielsa’s allowed fewer than three shots on target, and one big chance at most.
Farke does not give his players licence to go forward with the same abandon as Bielsa — very few coaches do — but despite that, much attention has been paid to the threat posed by his front line and the goals they have delivered. Like 2019-20, discussions about that strength have diverted attention away from a defence conceding the fewest goals in the Championship, a line of resistance which has Leeds on a run of eight league wins in a row.
(George Wood/Getty Images)
Leeds last won nine league fixtures back-to-back in the 1930s. In their history, they have never won 10 straight and if it is remotely true that attacks settle games but defences win titles, it should not be a surprise that they are still in the slipstream of leaders Leicester City.
The devil in the detail says it all…
Expected goals against (xGA)
There are two statistics which Farke considers fairly critical in opening the door to automatic promotion from the Championship: a final tally of wins standing at no fewer than 26, and a points-per-game average of two or more. The make-up of the current top four, all of them trending towards final totals of 90 points-plus, might mean neither of those targets is quite enough this season, but Farke is aiming for them on the basis that, in a typical campaign, they would get you over the line.
It is unusual, however, for a club to go up from the Championship while allowing more than a goal a game — something Farke’s Norwich City did in 2018-19 when they let in 57 while winning the title. Leeds, after 33 games, are performing vastly better at the back than that — 26 goals conceded gives them the joint-best record in the division, alongside Leicester.
And if you dig a little deeper into how many they should have conceded, their defending looks even more impressive.
So far, Opta’s data based on chances given up by Farke’s side estimates Leeds ought to have allowed 26.9 goals so far, essentially placing them bang on target. The calculation equates to an expected goals against (xGA) of 0.80 goals per 90 minutes and in only two of their last 12 league matches — West Bromwich Albion away in December and Preston North End at home last month — were the opposition allowed an xG of one or more. With the exception of a 4-3 win at Ipswich Town in August, Leeds have religiously prevented their xGA in a given match from slipping above two.
Leicester took control of the Championship from the get-go, winning 13 of their first 14 matches, and their defensive record is excellent. But as time goes on, it is struggling to maintain statistical parity with Leeds’ numbers. Leicester’s xGA, the second-best in the division, stands at 30.8, almost five higher than their actual total of concessions, which suggests Enzo Maresca’s team have got away with a few more dicey moments than Leeds.
Shots on target
When Farke set about building the sort of back four he wanted in the summer, like most coaches he was big on enlisting defenders with strong passing ability.
Recruitment of centre-backs in particular has long since changed from the days when basic defensive attributes were a priority, and that was demonstrated by the options Leeds took an interest in during the summer window: Liverpool’s Nat Phillips, Manchester City’s Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Joe Rodon of Tottenham Hotspur. Rodon was the loanee they moved to secure but it was no coincidence that promotion-race rivals Southampton signed Harwood-Bellis. These are central defenders who fit a certain type.
Rodon has been pivotal to Farke’s approach and Leeds’ good form, but allied to his comfort in possession are traits that are helping make Leeds very sturdy — not least the pace required to hold a high line. Though Leeds do not concede often, the first problem for opponents is that they do not make it easy for you to even get the chance to score. Like Bielsa’s machine in 2019-20, Farke’s second-placed team limit shots on target massively, with a mere 79 against this season (or 2.5 per 90).
In context, by the end of this past weekend, Leicester had given away 118, third-placed Southampton 109 and Ipswich Town, in fourth, 116. Leeds are one of only two Championship sides, with West Brom (98), not yet into three figures for this metric. Six of their last eight matches have seen just one effort on target against them, and it is hardly a surprise to learn Leeds allow the fewest chances from open play across the whole division (11.3 per 90).
Big chances
The number of ‘big chances’ — a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score — given away by Leeds was arguably their undoing in the Premier League last season. There were other factors at work too, but let teams into dangerous shooting positions as often as Leeds did and the damage is going to be extensive.
They gave away 112 big chances in 2022-23 — hence a hideous, league-worst total of 78 goal concessions. After 33 matches this season, so five less than they played last term, they have allowed only 32, fewer than anyone else in the Championship and a contrast to Leicester’s 49 and Southampton’s 56. It is fairly rare for any opposition player to see the whites of goalkeeper Illan Meslier’s eyes.
Leeds’ commitment to playing on the front foot and maintaining possession naturally limits attacks against them but in a structure which revolves around a sitting midfielder, providing added protection when Farke’s full-backs go forward, so little is given away cheaply. If anything, Farke’s defence has got stronger since Ethan Ampadu moved from midfield to centre-back. Ilia Gruev — a regular starter for Bulgaria and a former Bundesliga midfielder — stepping into Ampadu’s previous role No 6 role underlines the wealth of quality.
Clean sheets
Farke moaning about Leeds’ finishing after their 1-0 victory over Bristol City a couple of weeks ago was justified on the basis of their stats. But in truth, Leeds are a side who can get away with wasting opportunities because they rarely need to score a boatload of goals to win a game.
In their 11 matches so far in 2024, Leeds have conceded three times, once in the Championship. They took their haul of league clean sheets this season to 15 at Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, still seven short of Bielsa’s total of 22 in the 46 games of 2019-20 but realistically close enough to equal or beat it over the remaining 13 fixtures. They are nine off the club record of 24 that has stood since the Don Revie era. Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich all sit in double figures too but are several short of Leeds’ total.
Surprisingly, Leeds have registered one more clean sheet away from home than they have at Elland Road — surprisingly, because they will be looking for a 13th home league win in 14 games when Leicester visit on Friday and remain unbeaten on their own pitch in the league this season after 16 fixtures.
The difficulty in drawing first blood against Leeds means they spend relatively little time in a losing game state, or in scenarios which have spiralled out of control.
Goalkeeper
They say playing in the Premier League is a dream for most players, but maybe not if it pans out like Meslier’s last two seasons at that level.
(Dave Howarth – CameraSport via Getty Images)
Leeds conceded a chronic number of goals on the way to relegation. While the defence and the organisation of the team in front of Meslier made him very vulnerable, the data showed clearly that he was conceding more often than he should have done — and by quite some distance. While some goalkeepers were good at digging their teams out of trouble, Meslier sat at the opposite end of the spectrum, and was eventually dropped by Sam Allardyce when he came in as manager for the final four games.
Down in the Championship this season, and in a Leeds side as strong as Farke’s, Meslier was never likely to be under anything like the same pressure. But the data for expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) — numbers which estimate how many goals a ’keeper should be letting in, as opposed to how many they actually are — shows Meslier has undergone much-needed improvement, with very little disparity between expected concessions and actual ones (-0.02 per 90). As a result, his place in the team has hardly been under threat.
It is not that Meslier is now consistently the difference or the key factor in results but he has rectified his underperformance and is one of several players Farke has successfully managed into better form and a better frame of mind; indicative of the fact that, from front to back, Leeds’ new manager has done impressive work in building a unit which is clicking on all fronts.
(Top photo: George Wood – Getty Images)
