On the surface at Leeds United, there is not a lot for Daniel Farke to be sniffy about: third in the Championship and a point off the automatic promotion places, on a five-game league winning streak, clean sheets aplenty and, by recent standards at Elland Road, a short and manageable injury list as we approach the business end of the season.
Under the bonnet, the nuts and bolts of Leeds’ performances and analytical data are healthy too, so much so that Farke was able to make five changes on Tuesday night and watch his usual system chalk up an FA Cup fourth-round win over fellow second-tier side Plymouth Argyle. There are coaches out there with things to stress over, and Farke is a long way from the top of that list.
So when he sat at the end of last Friday’s 1-0 away win against Bristol City — decisive in terms of performance but not the scoreline — and described himself as “annoyed” about the quality of his side’s finishing, it was tempting to think the German was trying to find faults. No doubt Leeds should have won that one by a wider margin, and the opportunity passed up by Georginio Rutter in the first half was, statistically, the best they have wasted all season but the result was job-done on a wet, windy evening.
“The only thing I need to criticise, and I have to criticise this, is our efficiency in front of goal,” Farke said. “It’s an ongoing topic and if I’m honest, it annoys me a little bit because if you want to celebrate and have something to cheer about come May, we need to learn to score the goals and put the chances away.”
Was this just Farke being picky or seeking to stop any complacency from spreading? Or did he, actually, have a point?
In an automatic promotion contest that could easily come down to very fine margins on that first weekend in May, are Leeds underselling themselves when it comes to the final act of sticking the ball in the net? Defensively, the numbers stack up to the tune of 12 clean sheets in their 30 games, less than a goal conceded per 90 minutes and only six Championship matches all season in which they have conceded more than once. But what about up front?
Leeds, as anyone can see, are a proficient attacking side, with pace lending itself to counters, threat out wide and individual flair of a standard beyond most other squads in the division. They have a tally of 52 goals after 30 fixtures and they create the second-highest number of ‘big chances’ — a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score — behind only leaders Leicester City (61 to their 70).
Farke has not trained his team to be gung-ho since his summer appointment and it is common to see lulls in contests after they take the lead, with sustained control preferred to attempts to go for the jugular. Leeds invariably play with most abandon when they are trailing or chasing a result. Few coaches follow the Marcelo Bielsa mantra of attacking from the first whistle to the last, irrespective of the scoreboard.
In terms of their overall expected goals (xG) calculation, Leeds are essentially on par: those 52 league goals scored against respected data site fbref.com’s xG number of 52.5. But take out penalties and own goals to give a true impression of how clinical they are in open play and it becomes clear that Farke has a point.
Using that specific measure, Leeds should have registered almost 50 goals so far but have scored 46 — an under-performance of 3.6.
It is important to say here that a negative deviation of 3.6 is neither the end of the world nor a crisis. But it creates a revealing comparison with the rest of the Championship — and, more relevantly, the other sides in the table’s top four: Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich Town.
Leeds are fourth-bottom among the division’s 24 clubs when it comes to trying to match or exceed their xG from open play. Sunderland, Stoke City and Sheffield Wednesday (the latter two both in the bottom five of the league table) are the only three underperforming by more. And if Farke is a disciple of data, he will know the reality for the sides in direct competition with his for promotion is far better.
At present, Preston North End are out in front when it comes to exceeding their open-play xG — by a huge margin of 8.8, without factoring in penalties and own goals. But Leicester also fall into the positive category, with an over-performance of 4.1 and so do Southampton, whose performance is 2.1 goals better than the data says it should be. Ipswich fall between both of them, again with a positive number.
Leeds are the only side in the table’s top six who rank negatively in the chart above.
Farke’s concern with that need not be excessive.
Leeds, as stated at the top of this article, are nicely positioned in the Championship, a point behind Southampton, who have a game in hand, having lost just six league fixtures this term. Their record of 18 wins from 30 league matches shows they are very good at getting the job done.
Farke’s prime worry is likely to be that in games like the one last Friday, when Leeds were so dominant against Bristol City but the fixture was never dead and buried with a 1-0 lead, his players are prone to a costly sting in the tail. And with the fight for that second automatic promotion slot so tight, there are only so many points any of the clubs involved can dare to drop.
Within Farke’s squad, there is one obvious source of more goals.
So far, 12-goal Crysencio Summerville has been deadly with his striking, surpassing his 10.2 xG by an impressive margin. Dan James is ahead of his too (10 to 7.3) and Joel Piroe, with 10 goals, is bang on target. But in Rutter, the exceptionally gifted Frenchman who has blossomed into a serious livewire for Farke at No 10, the room for improvement in his finishing is plain to see.
The statistics show he has been more wasteful than any other player in the division, with five goals against an xG figure of 9.3. The chance he failed to convert at Bristol City, a shot from close range that struck the goalkeeper on the heel and looped over the crossbar, had an xG value of 0.88 — not unmissable, but about as inviting as any forward can expect.
It is hard to point a finger at Rutter because he has been wonderfully creative under Farke, serving up nine league assists. His total of goal-creating actions (GCA) — a metric that tracks the last two actions before a goal is scored — is second only to Leicester’s Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (19 to 23) and Rutter is a heartbeat in Farke’s unit. But he is also a player the manager can look to for more lethal accuracy when chances fall to him, a player for whom marginal but telling gains are realistic.
In that respect, these numbers might leave Farke with a glass-half-full attitude.
Leicester, Southampton and fourth-placed Ipswich are beating their statistical goalscoring benchmarks and could potentially regress towards his team in terms of that metric over the weeks and months to come. Leeds, in finishing terms, are falling below theirs and with the run-in on the horizon, it suggests there is still another level they can find or another gear they can reach.
Farke does not often speak about promotion but last Friday was a rare moment when he felt the need to spell it out.
It will not be long before this season’s chips are down, and it is obvious to him where an extra edge might be found.
GO DEEPER
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(Photo: Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)
