Ollie Watkins and Leeds United had their Sliding Doors moment back in the summer of 2020.
With Leeds freshly promoted to the Premier League, Watkins was under serious consideration as an attacking option to bolster Marcelo Bielsa’s side for their first top-flight campaign in 16 years.
There was an early plan when it came to recruitment after winning the Championship title — Leeds would go up and recruit the best talent from the division to go up with them. Watkins, now England’s Euro 2024 semi-final hero having come off the bench to score a 90th-minute winner against the Netherlands, was on that list along with then-Brentford team-mate Said Benrahma.
Interest in Watkins, who joined Aston Villa later in the window for a club record £28million ($36.4m), was high. His 26 goals and three assists as Thomas Frank’s team reached the play-off final made him a good prospect for top-flight teams. This was a young (he was 24), promising homegrown attacking option. After considering and then disregarding Benrahma as an option, Leeds’ list narrowed down to two targets: Watkins or Valencia forward Rodrigo.
Rodrigo, a Spain international, was the more established and arguably more glamorous prospect — but a source at Leeds who was involved in transfers at the time — who asked to remain anonymous to protect relationships — told The Athletic that Watkins was “a really good option and a priority too”. The club entered the window with the view that either player could work for them. It was all a case of which deal materialised and whether Rodrigo would open himself up to the idea of coming to England.
Bielsa watching Watkins playing for Brentford in 2020 (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
The pull of Premier League football at Leeds under Bielsa held weight. Rodrigo arrived in August 2020 for a reported club-record fee of £27million. Benrahma eventually joined West Ham in October 2020. Watkins had joined up with former Brentford boss Dean Smith at Villa a month earlier.
“There were quite a few (interested clubs),” Watkins told Sky Sports in a May 2021 interview. “Leeds were interested, but they signed Rodrigo. Tottenham were interested — they made it clear if Harry Kane was fit, then he would play. I did have that in the back of my mind, but they said with the schedule and the Europa League, there were a lot of games coming up.
“I had big decisions to make, but I made the right one.”
Is Watkins the one who got away for Leeds? His age, potential and what he has gone on to achieve would suggest so.
There was some uncertainty among clubs scouting him that summer, doubts over whether the Exeter City academy graduate could be an out-and-out No 9 in the long term. He had mainly been used on the wing before transitioning to a more central role in his final season at Brentford. Now, though, Watkins has become a bonafide leading man.
Fourteen goals and five assists in his first league season at Villa was an impressive start compared to Rodrigo’s league contribution of seven goals and two assists at Leeds in 2020-21. When Rodrigo signed, many expected the Brazilian-born player to arrive as competition — or even replace — Patrick Bamford in the No 9 role but the incumbent proved surprisingly difficult to unseat. Bamford scored 17 goals in that first top-flight season, making the step up to prove doubters wrong.
Rodrigo had impressed Bielsa during pre-season and was identified by the Argentinian as the player who stood out most in the six weeks before the 2021-22 campaign but Bamford thrived in the system. Most often, Rodrigo played behind Bamford as a hybrid between a midfielder and a No 10. Rodrigo had previously operated as part of a front two with Valencia — not a system Bielsa favours.
Watkins celebrating his late winning goal (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Though he had a cameo role as a lone striker at the end of the first season in the Premier League where he played well — he scored a brace in a 4-0 win over Burnley at Turf Moor — Rodrigo could not make the No 9 role his own. His 28 goals in 97 appearances for Leeds were important, and his pressing and ability to attack the space was effective, but he did not fit easily within Bielsa’s system.
Even when Bielsa left and Jesse Marsch took over, Rodrigo never seemed a natural option as a No 9. He scored 13 goals in the Premier League as Leeds were relegated, but they often looked better when Bamford played. He left Leeds for Qatari side Al-Rayyan in 2023 but Watkins has continued to grow at Villa, helping them reach the Champions League.
Whether Watkins would have taken Bamford’s place as the sole striker in 2020 is another question. Despite Watkins’ relative lack of experience in the role, Bamford’s injury record means it is likely he would have got his chance. There are also similarities between Bamford and Watkins — the former was rarely successful as an out-and-out No 9 before he started playing for Bielsa. Watkins could have thrived in Bielsa’s system but how often is a proven Spain international, such as Rodrigo, available and willing to join a promoted side?
The Euros hero who could have been Leeds’ is another of history’s nearly-deals to be consigned to folklore. While many will shelve club loyalties if Watkins finds a moment of magic again in this weekend’s final against Spain, there will always be a question of ‘What if?’ around Watkins and that first summer up from the Championship.
(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
