Everton at Southampton: Opposition Analysis | A Golden Opportunity For a Blues Road Win

Fans endured another desultory performance last weekend, in watching Everton toil passively, before snatching an equalizer against Fulham in added time. It was desperate stuff, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin substituted off and the Blues reduced to deploying centre half Michael Keane alongside Beto in what was a borderline farcical… let’s just call it “tactical” move.

If the entertainment on show was sparse and the offensive game plan rudimentary, then at least the club managed to extend its current unbeaten streak to five games. The Toffees now have back to back road matches before we enter yet another, tedious international break. First up is a long trip to St. Mary’s Stadium, where the team will face Southampton.

Form

Following their relegation at the end of the 2022-23 campaign, the Saints achieved a rapid return to the top flight last season via the playoff route, having finished fourth. During the summer, the club continued with its high turnover of the playing squad, losing eight members permanently, the most prominent being striker Che Adams (free, Torino), midfielder Carlos Alcaraz (€18m, Flamengo) and forward Sekhou Mara (€12m, Strasbourg).

Southampton bolstered the team with a spend of €117m on new players — 18 of them, constituting quite a churn. Those gaining most game time thus far have been midfielder Flynn Downes (€17.9m, West Ham United), centre half Taylor Harwood-Bellis (€23m, Manchester City), full back Yukinari Sugawara (€7m, AZ Alkmaar), goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale (€21.4m, Arsenal), midfielder Mateus Fernandes (€15m, Sporting CP) and forward Cameron Archer (€17.6m, Aston Villa).

The South Coast outfit have found the Premier League extremely hard going so far. They surprisingly dominated Newcastle United at St. James’ Park, only to go down 1-0 to begin the campaign, only to be handled easily at home by Nottingham Forest, in losing by the same scoreline. Heavy defeats to Brentford and Manchester United followed, dissipating early enthusiasm. A heavily-rotated side upset Everton at Goodison via a penalty shootout in the EFL Cup, and the Saints managed their first point of the season a few days later — from a draw with fellow promoted side Ipswich Town.

Any hopes that they could build on that relative success have been dashed, however. Southampton were comfortably beaten on the road by both Bournemouth and Arsenal and then blew a golden opportunity, leading 2-0 after more than an hour at St. Mary’s, they contrived to see Ryan Fraser red-carded en route to losing with virtually the last kick of the game. After that shattering reverse, the team showed character in travelling to the Etihad Stadium last weekend and holding City to just a 1-0 win. They await Everton coming off a morale-boosting EFL Cup victory over Stoke City on Tuesday night.

They sit dead bottom in the table, on just one point.

Style of Play

Russell Martin has switched formation a number of times already, in his search for a successful formula. For opening three games, he deployed the 3-5-2 he used towards the back end of last season, but moved to a 4-2-3-1 for the next trio of league matches. In the only home match since, he’s used a 4-5-1, but fielded a 5-4-1 for tough road trips against Arsenal and Man City. His side develops out from the back and will attempt to bypass any press and play through one or two midfield pivots. They retain the ball well via a short-passing, low tempo style, though are overly slavish to this approach and lack penetration. Their full backs are given licence to get forward in order to combine with the wingers.

The 38-year-old is firmly committed to his principles, despite his team’s terrible start to the campaign and this is likely to continue for some time to come. Although Southampton lack the quality to be found in almost every other side in the division, their ball-control approach has them with a 54% share of possession (ranking sixth) and a pass-completion rate of 87.9% — behind only City. Only 6.5% of Southampton’s passes go long.

They only take 10.6 efforts on goal per 90 minutes (ranking 18th), but have generated an xG (Expected Goals) of 10.5 (15th). Today’s hosts have scored just six goals, however, so are underperfoming xG by a fair amount. The Hampshire outfit has scored only once from a set-piece situation, and once via counterattack. They attack in a balanced fashion, not favouring either flank, or the centre.

Photo by Peter Byrne/PA Images via Getty Images

Today’s hosts permit 18 efforts on their net per 90 (ranking 18th) and an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) of 19.6 (19th). They match that awful total, having shipped 19 goals so far this term. Surprisingly, they haven’t been credited with conceding via a counterattack yet, but they have been beaten seven times from dead-ball situations — tied for worst with Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Player Assessment

Right winger Tyler Dibling has been a positive story for Southampton this season. The 18-year-old is quick, direct and likes to take his man on. He’s attempting 5.45 dribbles with a 40% success rate, in addition to 1.82 carries into the opposition area per 90. The youngster is leading the team with 4.02 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per game — a sizeable proportion of those coming from beating the defender one-on-one.

Solution

Southampton’s reserves embarrassingly passed Everton off the park at Goodison in the EFL Cup in September, boasting a 74% share of possession, which was pretty galling to watch in all honesty. Given that the Blues, under Dyche, are happy to give the ball away to virtually any opponent – no matter the quality – it’s horribly likely we’ll see similar numbers posted this afternoon. Whether this will lead to much goal threat from the hosts remains to be seen.

That night, the Toffees created a few good chances in transition, capitalizing on errors in possession by the visitors, but were unable to take advantage due to poor finishing. This leads me to believe that Dyche will set up similarly this weekend, hoping that this time his team will take advantage of those big opportunities. I’m no fan of this kind of reactive football, although it’s more palatable away from home, admittedly.

Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images

Whether this Everton side, which was of mid-table calibre last season and which is without a doubt strengthened this term, should be arriving at St. Mary’s with an underdog mentality — well, that’s not something I’m overly comfortable with. Everton won’t have an easier away fixture all season, so this should be a game which they are looking to take three points from and to do that, they’ll need to show a lot more aggression and tempo in their play than was on display last weekend.

It’s blindingly obvious that Jarrad Branthwaite needs to be back in the starting lineup. He’s the club’s best defender by a country mile. If Dwight McNeil misses out, then Jesper Lindstrom should be given another start on the right, with Jack Harrison shifted over to the left. liman Ndiaye is Everton’s most dangerous attacker and should be playing centrally, rather than marooned out on the wing, while Dyche experiments with McNeil as a number ten. Sadly, I feel either Harrison or Abdoulaye Doucoure will be shunted into the role behind perennially isolated front man Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Southampton are vulnerable to what have proven to be Everton’s primary routes to goal: set-pieces and winning the ball high up the pitch. With Branthwaite restored, the Blues can play a higher line and so trigger the press in more dangerous areas. I’m expecting to see aggressive, proactive defending and the side winning plenty of corners and free kicks. If they do this, then a win should be within their grasp.

Predication: Southampton 0-2 Everton

Stats provided courtesy of fbref.com, whoscored.com and transfermarkt.co.uk