Despite Arsenal’s recent dominance in this London derby—winning seven of their last 10 meetings, while Chelsea have managed just one victory—the Blues appear to be riding a fresh wave of momentum.
Enzo Maresca’s arrival as Chelsea manager has revitalised the side, making this fixture a much more tricky battle for a struggling Arsenal side.
According to analysis by Sisaltipster, Arsenal are slight favourites for this encounter, with a 38% chance of winning, compared to Chelsea’s 33%. A draw sits at 29%.
The odds reflect Arsenal’s recent mixed form, with just one win in their last five matches across all competitions, including three defeats between the Premier League and Champions League.
The Blues, on the other hand, have looked increasingly solid under Maresca.
The attacking spotlight will likely fall on Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson, with a 21% probability of being either the first or last scorer in the match, and a 13% chance of providing an assist.
Arsenal’s Kai Havertz, formerly of Chelsea, is another key figure to watch, with odds of 21% to score first or last, and 12% for an assist.
Chelsea have been notably aggressive this season, racking up the most yellow cards in the Premier League so far, with 38 bookings in their first 10 matches.
This has led to a 27% chance of a red card being shown during Sunday’s clash, adding another layer of drama to a match already rich in narrative.
Kick-off is set for 17:30 BST on Sunday at Stamford Bridge, with both teams looking to gain the upper hand in what could be a pivotal early-season contest. It’s not only about points, but about making a statement in this fiercely competitive rivalry.
Nicolas Jackson’s influence has been growing for Chelsea, and his offensive contributions could be decisive. With a high probability of both scoring and assisting, Jackson will be central to Maresca’s strategy.
Meanwhile, Kai Havertz will look to prove his worth against his former club, with Mikel Arteta counting on the German midfielder to deliver both creatively and in front of goal.
Chelsea’s league-high tally of 38 yellow cards makes them the most booked side after 10 matches. This aggressive approach under Maresca could backfire if discipline isn’t maintained.
Arsenal, well aware of this stat, will be looking to exploit any potential defensive lapses or rash challenges, potentially turning the game in their favour.
