Everton at West Ham: Opposition Analysis | Stumbling Into the Danger Zone

What can be said about Everton’s season to date? Following a 48-point haul last term (notwithstanding deductions) and a summer of relative strengthening of the squad, it was to be expected that the team’s relegation struggles lay behind them. After all, manager Sean Dyche had turned around a Blues side faltering under Frank Lampard, after arriving at the end of January 2023, guiding them to safety on the final day with a 1-0 win over Bournemouth.

Last season, he’d shrugged off two rounds of sporting sanctions, imposed by the Premier League and one absolutely terrible 13-game winless run, to steer the Toffees to a comfortable mid-table finish. But this final campaign – before the club heads off to pastures new and a potentially bright future at its spectacular new ground on the banks of the River Mersey – has not gone to plan.

Nine points from ten league fixtures has left Everton in 16th place, reasonably clear of the drop zone, but having benefited from the weakest schedule of any EPL side so far — according to estimates from OPTA. The next run of 13 matches — up to the end of January’s visit to Brighton, is brutal. Unless the team’s performance levels (or luck) take a major upturn, the Blues could find themselves on something around 16 or 17 points after 23 games.

That’s a grim prospect, not helped by the Merseysiders losing last weekend to a poor Southampton team who’d managed only a single draw, against eight defeats, to begin the season. That was not the kind of match that Everton can afford to blow and they then must compensate for those lost points by taking them from an unlikely source. Such a task awaits them at the London Stadium this afternoon, where they’ll face an underperforming West Ham United.

Form

The Hammers had experienced a topsy-turvy last couple of campaigns under former long-time Blues boss David Moyes. The Scot had brought them their first silverware in an age, in winning the Europa Conference League in 2023, but indifferent league finishes, not enhanced by a conservative style of play at odds with the expectations of many fans meant that Moyes departed in the summer, to be replaced by Julen Lopetegui, who’d taken Wolverhampton Wanderers to 14th during the 2022-23 season — before falling out with the club’s hierarchy and walking away on the eve of the next campaign.

The London outfit spent quite heavily in support of their new man — almost €100m net. They signed eight players, with those featuring most prominently being Wolves centre half Max Kilman (€47.5m), Betis defensive midfielder Guido Rodriguez (free), Manchester United fullback Aaron Wan-Bissaka (€17.6m) and Nice defender Jean-Clair Todibo (loan). Other high-profile signings in Leeds United winger Crysencio Summerville (€29.3m), PSG midfielder Carlos Soler (loan) and striker Niclas Fullkrug (€27.0m, Dortmund) have been sporadic inclusions — though in the latter case, due to injury.

They were able to balance the books somewhat by sealing the exits of a number of players, raising modest funds from the likes of midfielder Flynn Downes (€17.9m, Southampton), winger Said Benrahma (€14.4m, Olympique Lyon) and defender Thilo Kehrer (€11.0m, Monaco). Several others, such as the versatile Ben Johnson and veteran centre half Angelo Ogbonna left on free transfers, whilst expensive recent recruits in James Ward-Prowse and Nayef Aguerd were sent out on loan.

So far, things have not worked out for Lopetegui, with an opening day loss to Aston Villa, followed by victory over Crystal Palace, before a winless run of four. All told, the Hammers lost their initial three home league outings — albeit to strong opposition. They rebounded with a comprehensive 4-1 mauling of Ipswich at the London Stadium, but were punished by an identical scoreline at Tottenham Hotspur. A late winner, also on home turf, against United looked to have steadied the ship, but Lopetegui is finding consistency to be elusive and last weekend saw his side humbled 3-0 by Nottingham Forest, with pressure on the manager now mounting.

Style of Play

Lopetegui was known in the early part of his managerial career for using a progressive approach with a 4-3-3 system, but by the time he showed up at Wolves he’d adopted a more pragmatic style and used a variety of back four setups. At West Ham he’s struggled to find a workable solution so far, and has flipped around formations to a far greater extent. Starting out with a 4-1-4-1 (itself a variation of the 4-3-3), he’s switched back-and-forth between that and a 4-2-3-1, though has twice deployed a 3-4-3, including last time out. In both games he’s gone with a back three, the Hammers have been destroyed, so we’re unlikely to see him deploy it today.

The Basque drills his players hard and has demanding standards, from a tactical standpoint. He requires his side to shut down passing lanes from a mid-block and to press actively, with the intent of forcing the opposition towards the sides of the pitch. In possession, he favours patient buildup play, with wingers cutting inside and width provided by overlapping fullbacks. A defensive midfielder will drop in to form a three-man defence when in control of the ball.

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Today’s hosts are completing 82.2% of their passes (ranking eleventh in the division), with only 12.2% of their passing going long. They prefer to direct play down the flanks, especially on the right. The Londoners are only managing a 44.9% share of possession (ranking 16th). West Ham are taking 13.7 efforts per 90 minutes (joint eleventh) and have scored 13 times from an xG (Expected Goals) statistic of 14.2. Only one of their goals has come from a set-piece, with the bulk from open play.

Defensively, the Hammers are permitting 16.1 attempts on their net per 90 (ranking 17th) and have conceded 19 times this term, from an xGA (Expected goals Allowed) of 17.4, so are underperforming slightly in this regard. They’ve conceded a moderately-high number of goals from set-piece situations (four), and have so far proven to be vulnerable in transition, having given up three goals via this route.

Player Assessment

Jarrod Bowen will likely offer the biggest threat for the hosts. Operating off the right side, he’s generating 3.8 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90, leads the team with three league goals and has scored in West Ham’s last two home matches. He’s playing 2.37 key passes – far more than any of his teammates – and is succeeding in 47.2% of the 3.71 dribbles he averages per game.

New man Rodriguez is tasked with helping out the defence and although he’s not the most mobile of players, he’s contributing a team-high 4.32 combined tackles and interceptions per 90, in addition to 1.36 blocks.

Solution

This game is the proverbial must-not lose scenario for Everton, given last weekend’s reverse and the toughness of the coming schedule. It’s unrealistic, given the club’s woeful attempts to win on the road over the past ten months, which has secured just a lone victory, to expect them to rock up at the London Stadium with any expectation of bringing back three points to Liverpool, but a hard-fought draw is an attainable target.

The Hammers aren’t that good a side, though they are better than they’ve been playing thus far this season and are superior to the Blues. With no real pressure on the visitors to win this afternoon, this may suit Dyche, who is nothing if not a reactive manager — happy to sit back, absorb pressure and to play on the break. It’s quite possible that Everton could set up to kill the game as a spectacle, frustrate the hosts and pinch a goal from a set-piece, or a rare piece of individual skill from one of the attacking players.

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There’s also much potential for this passivity to give the opposition the confidence to push more men forward, get themselves ahead and to force Everton into the uncomfortable position of having to attack themselves, where they can look uncoordinated and vulnerable. Lopetegui isn’t a bad manager and will surely get this West Ham side going if allowed a little more time. Given they’ve won the last two at home, this will be far from a routine task for the Toffees.

A big question will be who runs out for the opening kickoff in Everton colours. Playing Dwight McNeil against Southampton, when the attacker had not trained all week with a knee injury, has seen it flare up, leaving him a doubt. Iliman Ndiaye suffered a dead leg, following some rough early treatment from the Saints, though appears more likely to have recovered. Jesper Lindstrom grew into the game last week and deserves another starting chance. Beto has looked lively from the bench in the last two games, but Dyche trusts Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who will likely lead the line.

Will Jarrad Branthwaite once again be consigned to the bench? If Dyche is managing the defender’s recovery from injury, as he’s claimed, then why has he been thrown on as a late substitute during the last two games? The club’s star defender surely cannot be held out again. The manager’s handling of the Branthwaite issue is starting to annoy plenty of Everton fans and another defeat toady – should the £80m-rated centre half not start again – will only increase displeasure directed at the ex-Burnley boss.

Alas, I’m expecting Dyche to stick to his guns and the Michael Keane – James Tarkowski partnership and for the Blues to struggle in the capital, in what I feel will not be one for the purists. I hope that I’m wrong.

Prediction: West Ham 2-1 Everton

Stats provided courtesy of fbref.com, whoscored.com and transfermarkt.co.uk