The arrival of yet another International Break gives us long-suffering fans time to reflect on the season so far. I thought it would be interesting for C and H readers to review the eleven league games that Lopetegui has overseen versus the same matches last season under the stewardship of David Moyes.
The first statistic which came as no surprise was that in the majority of ‘Lopetegui’ games West Ham have had higher possession than under Moyes.
Yet as I have mentioned in a previous article, possession for possession sake doesn’t win you games. A good example of this was during the Hammers’ opening game against Aston Villa with both teams registering 3 shots on target, and West Ham having superior passes, and marginally higher possession yet lost 2-1.
There are some big contrasts to last season: West Ham secured a 2-1 win at Tottenham in December 2023, with a mere 25% possession and 251 passes versus Spurs 784 and accuracy of 91%. Fabianksi was the busier of two keepers 23 shots 7 on target, with eleven shots and 5 on target from West Ham. Fast forward to October 2024, and with 43% possession and marginally less passes 366 v 477, with four shots on target v Spurs who had seven – the Irons left North London battered and bruised losing 4-1, and Kudus receiving a red card.
Another notable reverse result was the home game v Chelsea. This season, Chelsea romped to a 3-0 win in a game where West Ham had higher possession 53%, 498 passes versus 454 and 7 shots on target against Chelsea’s 5. Yet last season it was West Ham who won 3-1 with only 24% possession, 227 passes versus 716, and more shots on target, playing with ten men for the last 23 minutes as Aguerd was sent off!
This data had me spooked, as at one point I started to believe that Moyesiah could indeed be a football genius. However a quick check on data for the London derbies against Crystal Palace and Fulham dispelled this.
Fulham’s 5-0 win in December 2023 was on the back of the cottagers 64% possession, 762 passes v 430 and 8 shots on target v West Ham’s 5. Fast forward to September 2024, and an injury time goal from Ings secured West Ham a point. Marginally less possession for Fulham, 55% and passes 395 against West Ham’s 333 and both teams achieving 3 shots on target.
Crystal Palace, was a 2-0 win under Lopetegui, whereas the Eagles won 5-2 in the reverse fixture under Moyes.
Overall comparing both managers records:
Lopetegui has 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses so a total of 12 points.*
Whereas, Moyes had 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, so 13 points.*
In terms of goals scored over the same games under Moyes its 15 scored and 22 conceded. Whereas under Lopetegui it’s 13 scored and 20 goals leaked.
In summary it’s apparent that West Ham have not improved under the guidance of the ex Spanish national team head coach. The data does however show that he is a manager who thrives on possession, and wants his players to play out from the back. Moyes sets his teams up to play counter attacking football. A high proportion of goal kicks under him were to kick directly into the opposition half. His ethos was clear, allow the opponents domination of possession and territory, before striking on the break.
This is a big change for many of the players, that worked under David Moyes, yet that fact should not be used as an excuse for the clubs failings this season.
Currently a total of 148 shots from West Ham places them twelfth in the table just below Arsenal, they were 16th by the end of last season, and after eleven games, 15th for touches, again one place below Arsenal.
The obvious issues so far is that the team lacks a leader, and arguably the players aren’t listening to their manager. Moyes style was negative, yet at times his football was effective.
It will take a lot of convincing that Lopegegui is an upgrade. What most fans want is to win and be entertained.
The spotlight is very much on our current Head Coach who now must navigate two difficult fixtures in Newcastle and Arsenal.
*For the data please note I have used Sheffield United as the equivalent to Ipswich Town as both clubs were promoted in second place.
