Written by Matt Stevenson
Here’s the xG from an Everton game that had very few clear-cut chances. The xG supports the view I had when we left the stadium that we couldn’t grumble too much at losing, but equally, if it had been a draw Everton couldn’t have felt robbed. The first half was tense, AFCB looking to hit on the breakthrough Ouattara, although Brooks was involved with a lot of our good moves. At half time the xG was Everton 0.35 and AFCB 0.40. The only big chance came in the 51st minute which was a tame header by Gray (1 in 2). Six minutes later Everton had gone in front with a great shot from Doucoure past an unsighted Travers (1 in 11). Everton then looked to smother the game, with the xG between the 57th and 80th minutes being Everton 0.00 AFCB 0.08, although there was a lot of time wasted in this period. We always promised to create a chance but the final ball never got through or there was a bad touch and the chance disappeared. Four minutes into the 10 added on Vina connected with a volley (1 in 16) that Pickford beat away. Doucore then brought a save from Travers (1 in 5) before the whistle blew and Evertonians invaded the pitch.
We had 15 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, with Brooks having 5 and Ouattara 3.
Our players tried to take on a man 20 times, being successful 6 times. Billing had the highest success rate with 2 from 3 and Brooks was 2 from 6.
We had 7 attempts (none big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections, or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target once. Everton had 13 attempts, 1 big, hitting the target six times.
We made 20 tackles winning 12 with Billing winning the most tackles (3 from 3).
Kicks_On_66 added…
Below is the running record for xG across the Premier League season:
These figures shifted up after the first 8 matches (ending with the home draw with Brentford.) The two points up around 2.5 are statistical outliers, with the second one (home win against Fulham) marking the beginning of another shift up. The final four losses marked a return to anemic offensive punch. We finished 18th in the EPL for xG (only Saints and Wolves were worse.) However, the average xG during our good run starting with Fulham at home is about 1.5 per match, which would be more like a top-8 pace.
Here is the running record for xG against (xGA):
This series includes no statistical signals like those found in the xG series. That concerns me as it suggests that we indeed never did sort out our set piece defending. We finished 17th in the EPL for xGA (Forest, Everton, and Leeds were worse.) – To join the conversation, click here.