One footballing lesson learned by 49ers Enterprises is that confident rhetoric follows you around. Promise aggression in a transfer window and everyone listening will not just look for it, but hold you to that word — watching closely to see how the reality matches up.
It was there in black and white when ownership of Leeds United switched to the 49ers’ group from Andrea Radrizzani, present in Paraag Marathe’s insistence that the new broom would be “as aggressive as we can”. In addition, though, was the caveat of needing to be “as creative as we can” and if that was a hint at a complicated summer ahead, it is proving to be prescient.
An aggressive approach was taken to mean investment in new players and Leeds, as any fool at Birmingham City on Saturday could see, are crying out for them. But a key strand of the club’s strategy for this season, the area of their strategy which has run into trouble, was the desire to be aggressive with retentions; to keep some of their high-value players, to avoid losing the calibre of footballer a Championship club would normally lose and prevent churn that amounted to a total exodus.
The cold truth at Elland Road is that deep down, and whatever the message they transmitted to the club, most of the footballers rated as big assets wanted to leave. Max Wober was a perfect example and, in a sense, the first to warn of what was coming: initially giving the impression that he was committed to a year in the EFL, only to activate his release once a suitable bid arrived from Borussia Monchengladbach. Individual players have avoided talking about their futures among themselves but the atmosphere at Thorp Arch has been one in which, in the wake of the loss of Premier League status, so many have been waiting to see what offers came their way.
There is Premier League interest in Adams (Photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Back at the end of May, Tyler Adams, Jack Harrison and Willy Gnonto were three of the names Marathe and the 49ers group were most set on hanging onto. But two-and-a-half months later, none of those three have been convinced. Midfielder Adams almost joined Chelsea last week and has been looking to use his release clause to find a way back into the Premier League, with Bournemouth pushing to do a deal with him. It allows him to depart for around £20m, though the clause is believed to be time-limited and does not remain valid right to the very end of the window.
Gnonto refused to play at Birmingham over the weekend and is angling for a move out of Elland Road. Jack Harrison joined Everton on a season-long loan yesterday and there is a wait now to see what happens with Luis Sinisterra after his absence from the defeat to Birmingham. Leeds are not so far from a position where the one high-value name they ultimately keep is Illan Meslier, a goalkeeper they planned to sell were any satisfactory bids to arrive.
It was not that United did not expect a big clear-out, or that one wasn’t needed after a horrible season last year. What they did not anticipate were departures on quite this scale, or such a lack of leverage when it came to persuading players that it was in their interests to stay on board and help Leeds compete for promotion. In several instances, United have been powerless to prevent departures owing to relegation release clauses in contracts, many allowing players to leave on loan provided the club taking them agreed to cover the whole of their salary for the campaign ahead. Gnonto downed tools last week because, in contrast to so many others, his deal contains no provision like it, leaving Leeds under no obligation to sell him. But Gnonto is clear that he wants a way out.
The upside to the stream of outgoings at Leeds is that alongside immediate wage reductions activated by relegation, the wage bill at Elland Road has dropped further and significantly. Last season it was costing the club in excess of £10m a month. It has already come down to around half as much. But consternation outside Elland Road, and with Daniel Farke on the inside, has been caused by the incessant run of exits on loan, denying Leeds anything in the way of meaningful transfer fees or fees that represent a big profit on what was paid for a player in the first place.
Cuts to the wage bill will help with meeting financial fair play limits in the Championship and there are certain loans that have suited Leeds on the basis that the players involved — Brenden Aaronson, for example — might otherwise have been sold at a loss, weakening their FFP position. But the absence of incoming cash from the market has done nothing to help the club attack the window. Southampton, in a stark comparison, are set to pull in more than £100m in the aftermath of their relegation, money that greatly enhances their chances of returning to the Premier League immediately. Romeo Lavia alone looks like earning them £60m, a big gain on the £12m that secured him from Manchester City a year ago.
Leeds are largely powerless to stop players activating clauses allowing them to accept loan offers elsewhere. Harrison is the latest to leave on that basis. The Athletic has been told that the reason those clauses exist or were negotiated in the first place was because United wanted players there recruited in the Premier League to accept automatic wage reductions, as high as 60 per cent, if the club went back down. The makeweight for them agreeing to substantially reduced earnings in the EFL was a separate clause allowing them to move on – and to move on fairly easily – on a temporary basis.
United, then under the control of Radrizzani with 49ers Enterprises in a minority position, needed salaries to drop drastically if they fell back into the EFL. Transfer targets were willing to accept wage cuts only if exit provisions existed too. But it is fair to wonder now if United ever really expected relegation to bite; whether they assumed these clauses would never have to be confronted. It is also fair to ask how well prepared the club were for the pressure those clauses would put on them this summer. Farke’s view, given quite openly and repeatedly, is that the same scenario should “never happen again the future.”
Farke has been left battling to keep players (Photo: Alex Caparros via Getty Images)
So many players have moved out on loan that Leeds are virtually on the threshold of FIFA’s limit that allows a club to send out a maximum of seven players on temporary deals. That rule applies only to foreign loans, not domestic moves like Harrison’s. But in the circumstances subsequent exits might have to be to English clubs or on a permanent basis. As Farke keeps pointing out, defections from his squad are not what he wants to be talking about. Incoming transfer business is badly needed. He had an eight-man bench at Birmingham with two keepers on it. And as he spoke post-match on Saturday Harrison to Everton was about to gather pace. It seemed unlikely to be the last outgoing transfer.
It is impossible for Leeds’ hierarchy to paint this as anything like a satisfactory situation, or to deny that with hindsight it would have made more sense to establish who was minded to leave much earlier in the summer. Players can find themselves in two minds and it is not always in a club’s gift to know if or when offers will actually arrive. Likewise, Farke’s commendable suggestion that United resist relegation release clauses in future has to acknowledge the fact that doing so will reduce the pool of players the club can go after. Footballers at the top level have an extraordinary amount of bargaining power. But on the question of who in the squad relegated at Elland Road last season wants to be here, the answer appears to be very few.
Redemption in this window depends now on what Leeds can pull off in the fortnight remaining. It will take recruitment on a fairly epic scale to convince their crowd that escaping the EFL might not require a minimum of two seasons. Farke warned of a “bumpy” start in his very first press conference. That description is starting to sound more than a little charitable. He cuts the figure of a manager who wants control but does not have it, prone to limitations as Leeds try to untangle the web they are in. The first week of the season has cast them as a club who are some distance from being ready for it.
(Top photo: Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)
