Is Cameron Archer the problem-solver?
How Aston Villa interpret that question will determine his future at the club — is the 21-year-old the forward who provides a solution on the pitch or an asset on the spreadsheets?
Financial fair play (FFP), at Premier League and UEFA levels, is a juggling act for teams of Villa’s stature who have the desire to upgrade and compete among the elite but are starting from a point discernibly behind the best.
They do not have the pots of Champions League gold or the large, inherent commercial streams of the ‘Big Six’ or, as Unai Emery insists with Newcastle United, the ‘Big Seven’. Villa instead require a nimbleness in circumventing those difficulties.
Complying with FFP has formed a part of Villa’s thinking in this summer window.
“We have to be responsible,” Emery said on FFP. “We are trying to be smart in the transfer window, to be in the right way. We are working on it for now and for the next transfer windows and for the season. We are trying to complete the best squad possible.”
Villa are open to the sale of Archer, rather than another loan, in part due to FFP. It goes some way in explaining why the school of thought has shifted around Archer. When he signed a five-year contract 12 months ago, almost every Championship club were interested in taking him on loan after impressing at Preston North End. Archer’s stock, in theory, should be even higher now following an exceptional spell at Middlesbrough in the second half of last season.
As an academy graduate, Villa will receive pure bookable profit for his departure, anticipated to be between £15million-20m ($19m-$25.5m), which would give room for manoeuvre on FFP and allow Emery to further strengthen the attacking positions in this window. From a developmental perspective, any club signing him — Leeds United and Sheffield United, who would be more likely considering their Premier League status, have been credited with interest — would have a greater desire to improve him as a player because Archer would be theirs permanently as opposed to one year on loan.
Villa’s willingness to sell is under the proviso of including a buy-back clause. This way, they can monitor Archer’s progress and bring him in at a more suitable period. This is replicated in Aaron Ramsey’s £14m move to Burnley, with Villa successfully negotiating a buy-back option.
“He played very well last year at Middlesbrough,” Emery said of Archer. “He scored goals and his level increased. And we are with Ollie Watkins, Jhon Duran and him in the squad.
“With Cameron, he was playing in pre-season and we were thinking he could have the possibility to go and continue improving and increasing his level at another club, but as a player, we want to keep him under control because we believe in him. Sometimes the plan we have to do is to try to keep him but taking time, confidence and minutes at another club.”
Jaden Philogene, a fellow Villa graduate, is in talks to join Hull City. Emery initially wanted to keep the winger around the squad but at 21 and after two seasons in the Championship on loan at Stoke City and Cardiff City, Philogene is keen for consistent game time elsewhere. Villa would again like a first-year buy-back option.
Emery is building depth and, as he referenced in a recent press conference, he is working towards the aim of having two quality options in every position. As this summer’s recruitment has illustrated, spending around £70m on Moussa Diaby and Pau Torres plus additional costs for the loan of Nicolo Zaniolo and the signing-on fee of free agent Youri Tielemans, Emery wants his players to have vast experience of playing in Europe.
Ollie Watkins is Villa’s chief goalscorer and influential to Emery’s rotational, highly incisive possessional structure. The forward positions do, however, lack proven quality beyond Watkins, with Archer and 19-year-old Duran yet to play consistently at top-flight level. It was telling, even affirming, that when Watkins was rested with a quarter of an hour left against Everton, Duran was picked to come on. He swiftly vindicated the decision by scoring his first Villa goal 50 seconds after coming on.
A special moment for @JhonDuran991! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/8t1DFHpWhv
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) August 20, 2023
Duran has just returned from a back injury and sharing the role with Watkins in a Villa side, as Emery puts it, that is “dreaming” of eventually playing in the Champions League is a steep demand.
Emery wants dynamic forwards, adept at playing anywhere across the front line. Watkins and Diaby have begun to forge a partnership through their pace and ability to attack the spaces between the opposition’s centre-back and full-back. Both were schooled as wingers in their formative years and are not the old-fashioned, archetypal No 9s. This has shaped their style to an extent, where they can make runs into the channels or drop into pockets between defensive lines.
Caveated by Archer playing half as much as Watkins and subsequently a smaller sample size, the England youth international performs well across several metrics.
For example, using smarterscout, which gives players a series of ratings from zero to 99 relative to how often a player performs a given stylistic action or how effective they are at it compared with others playing in their position, we can gain a general overview of Archer over the past 12 months.
Archer ranks 80 out of 99 for carry and dribble volume and, remarkably, 98 out of 99 for link-up play volume. This indicates he is a forward who can play across the width of the pitch and is not just confined to doing his best work in the box.
Despite low progressive passing (one out of 99), Archer has shown a propensity to get into threatening positions and receive in the opposing box (88 out of 99). As a consequence, he creates a high proportion of chances (77 out of 99 for xG from shot creation).
Watkins’ overall data is more balanced, with defensive and pressing acumen. Watkins, as the initial trigger to press, applies vital pressure from the front, which enables Emery to adopt a steadfast high defensive line. For instance, if the opposition defender was not closed down, they would have more time to execute a dangerous pass behind Villa’s defence, exploiting the large oceans of space left. Watkins’ pressure significantly increases the percentage of an inaccurate pass.
According to FBref, Watkins ranks in the 80th percentile for interceptions (0.29 per 90 minutes). In other words, only 20 per cent of forwards from Europe’s top five leagues are more effective in cutting out passes. Archer, in comparison, is in the 11th percentile, with an average of 0.07 interceptions per 90 minutes. In addition, Watkins is in the 48th percentile for tackles won (0.35), with Archer in the bottom three per cent (0.07).
The conundrum for Villa centres on whether Archer’s Championship numbers last season — 11 goals and six assists in 20 appearances — successfully translate to the Premier League.
In mitigation, Villa have had ample time and evidence to assess Archer. Even though he remains a precocious talent, he made his Premier League debut in September 2021 and before going to Middlesbrough in January this year, he played just 44 minutes over the first part of last season and has not scored in the top flight.
Across three loan spells — two in the Championship and one in the National League with Solihull Moors — Archer has acquired solid, hardened footing, toughening him up for the challenges posed to a forward in the first team.
The question is whether Archer’s high link-up play volume in the Championship, in keeping with several facets of his game, is disproportionate to battling against Premier League sides, who typically press more aggressively and have a more defined pressing structure.
Having done all that was asked of him on loan, Archer’s case underlines the difficulty of breaking into a first-team where expectations are growing and top-level quality, under Emery, is non-negotiable.
(Top photo: Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images)
