Everton’s victory over Brentford last week secured its status in the English top flight with three matches left to play, easing the frayed nerves of the club’s battered supporters. A third consecutive season battling relegation cannot be described as entertainment – the primary reason for watching football, after all.
With safety secured, the focus has shifted towards the ongoing saga of US investment group 777’s protracted and admittedly clumsy attempts to purchase the club, the outcome of which looks as though it may not be resolved until the end of the season, or beyond. Mercifully, the Blues have a game tonight, so fans can at least avoid tormenting themselves with off the pitch concerns for a couple of hours!
This evening, the Toffees travel to Bedfordshire where they’ll face Luton Town – who of course are still very much embroiled in the fight against the drop – at Kenilworth Road.
Form
Following something of a surprise promotion from the Championship last season, via the playoff route, the Hatters spent modestly in supporting manager Rob Edwards’s attempt to keep the team in the Premier League. Just €24m was allocated for the task, this meagre sum being spread thinly in what was a general reinforcement effort.
Of the more than a dozen arrivals, those who have contributed most are former Everton wonderkid Ross Barkley (free), Blackburn Rovers goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski (€2.9m), Birmingham City midfielder Tahith Chong (€4.7m), young Manchester United centre half Teden Mengi, currently injured winger Chiedozie Ogbene from Rotherham (free) and Arsenal midfielder Albert Sambi Lokonga (loan). In January, Luton added Japanese defender Daiki Hashioka (€2m) from Belgian side Sint-Truidense.
Everyone had the club marked down as early favourites for the drop and despite the club showing commendable grit and resilience, this would likely have been confirmed long ago — were it not for the Premier League taking sudden interest in applying sporting sanctions for breaches of its financial regulations (PSR) this season. This decision to deduct points caused Everton to be dragged into the battle down at the bottom of the table and has left Nottingham Forest still in an imperilled state.
As it happens, Luton have found things tough going, despite earning plenty of plaudits for being plucky underdogs, in a league where money is king. The team won only one of their first 12 games – against Everton at Goodison Park, gallingly – and lost eight. A win over Crystal palace in November, was followed by another three consecutive defeats, before the team managed what has been, in truth, its lone spell of good form.
Three victories, against Newcastle United, fellow-strugglers Sheffield United and a season-best result in thrashing Brighton & Hove Albion 4-0, along with an away draw at Burnley and a 4-4 thriller with the Magpies at St. James’s Park, over a six-game run from late December to the end of January, gave them a glimmer of hope. However, since then and despite both Forest and the Toffees being penalized, the Hatters have been unable to take advantage. In their last 13 outings, they’ve managed just one win and tasted bitter defeat on ten occasions.
They await the Blues having lost their last three, conceding 12 goals in the process. Luton sit 18th in the table, one point behind Forest, who enjoy superior goal difference.
Style of Play
Classified as low-block, long-ball merchants when in the Championship, the Hatters certainly looked exactly that in the early part of the season, a rugged outfit mostly reliant on set-pieces, crosses into the box and hard work to counter the stark talent discrepancy they’d be facing at elite level. Since, they’ve adapted somewhat, showing an ability to play more football than most would have considered plausible, although they still rely heavily on what got them promoted in the first place. Edwards has kept things simple, retaining the familiar 3-4-3 system that the players were comfortable with.
The team ranks eighteenth in the division in terms of generating shots (11.3) and do so with a modest 41.5% share of possession (ranked 15th). Luton’s passing accuracy of 75.7% is third from bottom, but they are second only to Everton in aerial duels won (17.1) per game, indicative of both their low-block defensive line and direct approach. Their 22 crossing attempts per 90 minutes is the joint highest in the league and they go long with 16.9% of their passes. Most of the team’s focus of play is on the flanks.
The hosts have scored 48 times this season, from an xG (Expected Goals) statistic of just 39.3, so are overachieving by a large amount when it comes to converting chances. It should come as no surprise that Luton are effective from dead ball situations, scoring 14 goals (ranking joint fourth). They’ve conceded 77 times, exceeding even their xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) metric of 72.3 — the worst in the division. The Hatters are behind only Forest in vulnerability to set-pieces, conceding from 17, they’ve allowed six from counterattacks (joint 16th) and put four in their own net (joint 17th).
Player Assessment
Carlton Morris will lead the line and for a player enjoying his first opportunity in the Premier League in his late-20s, his ten goals have been a good return, even if four strikes have come from the penalty spot. Big, strong and hard-working, he’s bagged two in the last four games and the target man will be a handful, winning 4.31 aerial duels per 90 with a 44.6% success rate.
Barkley, now 30 years-of-age, gives Luton another way of playing. The former Blue completes 0.94 passes into the penalty area per game, takes good care of the ball (82.4% pass accuracy) switches play well (0.83 per 90), leads the side in SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90 with 3.54 and also recoveries (7.04). He still has his old technical skills, as shown by him succeeding with 64.3% of the 3.54 dribbles he attempts per match.
Elijah Adebayo was on great form before getting injured in mid-February, having scored nine goals to that point, including a hattrick in Luton’s big win over Brighton. He’s been sorely missed but was able to come off the bench for an eleven-minute cameo on Saturday, in the team’s 2-1 loss to Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Solution
The visitors don’t actually need any more points, with the primary objective of staying up having now been accomplished. Of course, there is still the integrity of the competition and avenging the two defeats inflicted by Luton this season to be considered, as well as the benefits of finishing the campaign in positive form.
Regardless of its importance in the greater scheme of things, the idea that Everton could end up losing both league games to such a poor side as the Hatters is something that everyone should be focused on avoiding. From what I’ve heard from Sean Dyche this week I don’t see any tolerance from the Everton boss for phoning in the last three games of what has been an arduous season, in which the team has had to fight for everything.
Likewise, the players responded brilliantly to the humiliation of that 6-0 drubbing at the hands of Chelsea, going on the run off a trio of home victories to secure their place in the league next season. It’s a lot more fun to win matches, than to lose them, so it has to be hoped that the team wish to enjoy that feeling as much as possible.
Should the Blues set up and play with the same level of focus as they have displayed in recent outings, then they should possess too much for the Hatters to overcome. The keys to success are shutting down Barkley, closing down opposition wide players, avoiding individual errors and not giving up free kicks. Sitting in a mid block and looking to punish the hosts in transition should be the order of the day. Luton are triers, but they are very shaky defensively.
Dyche has a few decisions to make as regards his lineup. I don’t see any sense in risking players just returning from injury, such as Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Seamus Coleman. Ben Godfrey and Ashley Young can continue to man the fullback berths and Youssef Chermiti deserves to retain his place up front, following an encouraging full league debut last weekend. It has been much discussed, but it is highly unlikely that the manager will hand out starts to any of the youngsters that fill out the Everton bench currently.
With the pressure off the Toffees and all on the Hatters, who have registered just two league wins since the turn of the year, there’s no reason that the Merseysiders should not be bringing all three points back to Liverpool with them tonight.
Prediction: Luton Town 1-2 Everton
Stats provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com