Even before their respective injuries picked up just before Christmas, Brighton faced the prospect of having to cope for up to six weeks without Kaoru Mitoma and Simon Adingra because of their participation in the Asian Cup and AFCON.
Both tournaments kicked off just before the weekend of January 13th 2024 and run through until the weekend of February 11th 2024.
Japan are amongst the favourites to win the Asian Cup in Qatar as one of the best and most exciting sides involved. Ivory Coast meanwhile have home advantage as host of AFCON, so they too will be expected to go far.
When Roberto De Zerbi announced in the aftermath of Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton that Mitoma and Adingra were both facing four to five weeks on the sidelines, most believed that would mean no international call ups for the pair.
The Japanese and Ivorian FAs thought different. The timescale of their returns put them on course to be fit again by the beginning of February, meaning Mitoma and Adingra could play a part in the latter stages if their recoveries go according to plan.
With the prospect of becoming continental champions on the line, Japan and Ivory Coast have decided including Mitoma and Adingra is a risk worth taking.
And who can blame them? Heaven forbid Harry Kane or Jude Bellingham getting injured a few weeks before Euro 2024; but if they did and there was a chance they could be fit from the quarter finals onwards, England would obviously name them in their squad and take the gamble.
Presuming Japan and Ivory Coast do go all the way to the final, Mitoma and Adingra will miss the Albion’s Premier League games against Wolves, Luton Town, Crystal Palace and Spurs, plus the FA Cup fourth round trip to Sheffield United.
If Brighton then opted to give the duo time off following their exertions on international duty – as happened when Alexis Mac Allister won the World Cup with Argentina last season – Mitoma and Adingra could also be absent for the Premier League game at Bramall Lane.
What does all this mean for the Albion? Research from BetVictor looking at the contribution of Mitoma and Adingra so far this season shows just how much Brighton will miss the pair.
Mitoma and Adingra have contributed directly to 12 of the 38 league goals scored by Brighton this season (32 percent).
These goal involvements have resulted in eight additional points being secured, over one quarter (26 percent) of the Albion’s total.
Take those eight points away and the Seagulls would sit 13th in the table on 23 points, rather than be challenging for European qualification for the second season running.
The absence of Mitoma and Adingra would not be as keenly felt if Brighton were not so ravaged by injuries. Whilst the duo are at the Asian Cup and AFCON, every other winger in De Zerbi’s first team squad is also sidelined.
Solly March is a long-term absentee having suffered the second ACL injury of his career. Ansu Fati has been ruled out since November.
Although a number 10, Julio Enciso can do a job out wide. He has not played since undergoing surgery in August on a meniscus tear.
Tony Bloom said in a recent interview that Fati, Enciso and the rest of the Albion’s injured will all return by the end of February – March being the obvious exception.
But how will Brighton cope before then with losing Mitoma and Adingra? Part of the reason Mitoma and Adingra have such impressive numbers is because DeZerbiBall relies on fast, direct wingers as one of its most important pillars.
With none of those type of players now available in the immediate future, De Zerbi is left with two options to try and fill the void.
The first is square pegs in round holes. Neither Facundo Buonanotte nor Joao Pedro has looked particularly effective out wide on the rare occasions they have been used there this season.
Both though could do a job if required, although it would surely be detrimental to their recent form. Pedro is closing in on 20 goals this season from playing as either a number 10 or central striker and Buonanotte has looked much more at home through the middle since the start of December.
The second option is to change the way Brighton play. De Zerbi has already done this to stunning effect the first time he was without Mitoma and Adingra, when their injuries ruled them out of the visit of Tottenham to the Amex.
De Zerbi switched from his normal 4-2-3-1 to a midfield diamond. Buonaotte was at the top in the number 10 role, James Milner and Pascal Gross occupied the two central positions and Billy Gilmour sat deep.
Rather than focus on working the ball wide after drawing the press, Brighton played through the middle in triangles via their diamond. They cut through Spurs like the proverbial hot knife through butter.
With Jack Hinshelwood at right back and Igor Julio followed by half time substitute Pervis Estupinan at left back all bombing on, Tottenham were totally overwhelmed.
Ange Postecoglou had no answer to it. Brighton led 4-0 with 15 minutes still to play. Only some late defensive jitters from the Albion gave the scoreline a modicum of respect from a Spurs point of view, the visitors pulling two goals back late on as it finished 4-2.
In just one week between the draw with Palace and beating Spurs, De Zerbi formulated a new way for Brighton to play, drilled it into his players and was able to pull off one of the best performances and results of the season so far.
A world class feat of coaching from a world class manager. No wonder Real Madrid were interested in taking him to the Bernabeu before Carlo Ancelotti signed a new contract recently.
But for all the praise of De Zerbi’s Wingless Wonders, the victory over Spurs comes with a caveat – Tottenham set up in a way which played perfectly into the Albion’s hands.
Postecoglou and his unwavering devotion to a high line and attacking football no matter the circumstances has made Spurs one of the most entertaining teams in the Premier League this season.
The lack of compromise though can be catastrophic. Tottenham saw that when sticking to their guns despite being down to nine men at home against Chelsea, eventually losing 4-1 to the Blues.
A high line was the exact tactic Spurs should have avoided at the Amex, as evidence by the number of times Pedro found himself racing clear in the second half after a Tottenham attack broke down or they had been drawn into pressing.
It is against opponents who sit deep and defend that Brighton will miss the talents of Mitoma and Adingra, in terms of their ability to break down such teams and their clinical finishing to take chances when they come.
We saw that in the 0-0 draw with West Ham United. The Albion struggled to make much headway in a dull first half; one which might have turned out much livelier had Mitoma or Adingra been out wide.
In the second half, Brighton were much the better team and created plenty of half-decent opportunities. None of them beat Alphonse Areola, however.
Would it have been a different story if the duo with involvement of 32 percent of the Albion’s Premier League goals so far this season had been at the London Stadium?
Three of the four upcoming fixtures which Mitoma and Adingra miss are against opposition below Brighton in the table. It is therefore reasonable to expect Wolves, Luton and Palace will sit deep, defend and challenge the Albion to break them down – just like West Ham.
If that is the case – even taking into account what happened against Spurs – Mitoma and Adingra are going to be big losses for Brighton whilst at the Asian Cup and AFCON.
With nine precious and winnable points on the line, Brighton need the managerial genius of De Zerbi and their new-style Wingless Wonders to find a way through.
