In five years, it would be no surprise to look back at the January 2024 transfer window and marvel at the work done by Brighton & Hove Albion.
Five teenagers were signed, at least two of whom have the potential to be Premier League jewels. Valentin Barco was on the radar of Manchester City before joining the Albion and Caylan Vickers was linked with a move from Reading to Real Madrid.
For both to have opted for the Seagulls is testament to the club’s reputation for developing players and providing a pathway to first team football.
Beyond those two, Kamari Doyle cost a seven figure fee from Southampton, Josh Robertson was very highly rated at Sunderland and Steven Hall is the youngest debutant goalkeeper in Australian A-League history. Although how he gets ahead of the five other goalkeepers aged under 22 remains to be seen.
By 2029, the Albion may well have either benefited from the talents of Barco, Vickers, Doyle, Robertson and Hall or sold them on for vast profit on their total outlay of the window which stands somewhere around £10 million.
And yet in the present, the January 2024 transfer window is equally being seen by some as a missed opportunity to persuade Roberto De Zerbi the club’s ambitions matches his own at a time when the parties are trying to negotiate a new contract.
De Zerbi made his feelings publicly clear before the window opened, commenting in December: “We need three or four positions but, in the end, the owner and the club decide whether to bring anyone in.”
On his contract, De Zerbi had previously said: “I feel very well in Brighton. Yes, we are speaking about the new contract, it is not done yet.”
“I usually work to be happy and to enjoy. I feel very good in Brighton. We have to analyse the target. If the targets are the same as the club, it’s an honour for me working in Brighton.”
“I don’t try to reach the higher level. Most important for me is working seriously, to work with good players. It’s important for me to fix an important target.”
Of the five players signed by Brighton in the January 2024 transfer window, it is hard to see any immediate impact on the first team beyond perhaps Valentin Barco.
We say perhaps, because by the time he is available after helping Argentina Under 23s in their Olympic qualifiers, the Albion will hope to have Kaoru Mitoma, Simon Adingra, Ansu Fati, Julio Enciso and Joel Veltman back.
Barco will therefore arrive at a time when Brighton are no longer desperately needing wingers or full backs; areas where they have looked very short these past few months.
The Albion did appear to look at addressing shortfalls in those problem positions, as well as the midfield area which De Zerbi highlighted as requiring reinforcement.
Barco fills a gap at full back, there were attempts to sign midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall from Leicester City and a loan bid for winger Bryan Gil at Tottenham.
Dewsbury-Hall always seemed a little far fetched as Brighton were unlikely to ever meet the £40 million Leicester wanted, which would have been an Albion club-record fee.
There were few other concrete rumours in January regarding serious efforts to sign any other players – either permanently or on loan – for the first team squad.
Andy Naylor at The Athletic makes the plausible argument that the lack of business Brighton did in the January 2024 transfer window in terms of bolstering the immediate first team squad will make little difference to De Zerbi’s future.
“He has been linked with Liverpool and Barcelona vacancies for next season,” wrote Naylor. “If clubs of that stature decide he is the man they want, he would go, regardless of any attempts to persuade him otherwise. That is the price a club of Brighton’s size pays for success.”
Whilst that may be rational, De Zerbi wears his heart on his sleeve and is amongst the most honest managers in the Premier League.
If he sounds like he is seriously considering staying at the Amex to deliver a long-term project providing the club meet his ambitions, we should give that credit too.
Instead, we ended up with a frustrated De Zerbi talking to the press about the January 2024 transfer window in his press conference before Brighton played Crystal Palace.
When asked if he was happy with his squad, De Zerbi replied: “I don’t know, we will see the next game. It’s not my business the transfer market.”
“We are two less players in the midfield. I spoke with the club but they decided in a different way. We move on anyway.”
There has been speculation over who De Zerbi was referring to with his “two less” comments. Mahmoud Dahoud is obviously one after moving on loan to Stuttgart, although he has only played 45 minutes since his red card against Sheffield United at the beginning of November.
Brighton have already been less-Dahoud in midfield for the past three months because De Zerbi chose to discard him, having initially convinced the recruitment department to sign the German international from Borussia Dortmund in the summer.
It is less clear who De Zerbi was referring to as the other midfielder. The comments may have related to James Milner getting injured at Luton Town, Jack Hinchy going on loan to Shrewsbury Town, or the non-signing of Dewsbury-Hall or another midfielder.
Whoever De Zerbi was thinking of, the indication was that he does not feel the club is on the same page as him when it comes to ambitions or targets.
If any club has significant flexibility to spend without breaking PSR rules, it is clearly Brighton. The Albion should be announcing profits of around £150 million over the last two season based on player sales and their increasing success.
That success of course has come from Tony Bloom’s blueprint of buying promising teenagers and letting them flourish. The January 2024 transfer window has been very much in keeping with that, along with the Brighton owner’s oft-quoted, “I don’t like to do much business in January.”
Equally, Bloom, Paul Barber and David Weir will have a better understanding of what it will take to persuade De Zerbi to extend his stay in a way clearly beyond us as outside observers.
That does not mean outside observers should not comment or form their own opinions. To this observer, De Zerbi’s obvious ability to improve players and get performances well beyond the apparent rating of the team on paper offers an alternative method to throwing money around.
But to lose De Zerbi risks a drop off in performances, results and potentially player value through less individual improvement. If a little compromise in terms of transfer policy makes it more likely De Zerbi stays at the Amex, that is no bad thing.
What will the next few transfer windows hold in that regard? Brighton have often gone onto sign players they have been linked with in previous windows, including Barco who was close to an Amex move in the summer.
It will therefore be no surprise to see renewed interest in Dewsbury-Hall, Gil and 19-year-old Nordsjaelland forward Ibrahim Osman, who was another rumoured arrival for the development squad.
Last summer, the Albion were linked with Juventus winger Samuel Illing-Junior and Derby County central defender Eiran Cashin, although the latter has since signed a new contract with the Rams when his previous deal was due to expire in the summer.
Results as always have a huge bearing on the mood of a football club. Brighton signing only teenagers in the January 2024 transfer window was a serious cause for concern in the aftermath of the Albion suffering a heavy 4-0 defeat at Luton.
The subsequent 4-1 victory over Palace which left De Zerbi much happier means disgruntlement over the lack of first team ready signings has lessened.
Whilst the number of managerial vacancies coming up this summer – Liverpool, Barcelona, several Italian clubs and potentially Manchester United – will leave questions over De Zerbi, the future still looks very bright for the Albion.
“In Bloom we trust” is a motto which has brought Brighton so far – particularly when it comes to transfer business, where the Seagulls are the undisputed kings of polishing diamonds and turning profits.
Five years down the line and – presuming there is still a buoyant transfer market – it seems likely Estupinan, Mitoma, Enciso, Bart Verbruggen, Evan Ferguson and Joao Pedro will have moved onto bigger clubs for large fees.
For most teams, losing so many good first team players would be a disaster. Not so Brighton. That is the reason why the Albion model is so successful and why we should not pin everything on what happens in transfer windows here and now.
Even before factoring in the many new signings the Albion will make between now and 2029 and accepting it is difficult to identify which players out on loan or in the development squad will make it, Brighton already look likely to have a strong team capable of competing in the Premier League.
The Seagulls could start the 2028-29 campaign with James Beadle, Jack Hinshelwood, Barco, Jan Paul van Hecke, Freddie Simonds, Carlos Baleba, Billy Gilmour, Harry Howell, Mark O’Mahony, Simon Adingra and Vickers.
That starting XI consists of five young players from the current first team squad, Beadle in goal who is jumping through the divisions on loan at a rate of knots and January 2024 signings Barco and Vickers.
O’Mahony has been hailed the next Evan Ferguson for his scoring exploits in the Under 21s and Howell and Simmonds have looked ridiculously comfortable in recent development squad appearances despite being just 15-years-old.
With other January 2024 additions Doyle, Robertson and Hall to fit in somewhere, the Brighton conveyor belt of talent shows no sign of slowing anytime soon.
Peter Finn
