Tens of thousands of words are spread across the internet dedicated to why the Albion’s results and performances have tailed off so much in recent months. But can it actually be summed up in just four? Kaoru Mitoma Brighton injury.
There are plenty of good theories as to what has happened to Brighton. Europa League workload. Roberto De Zerbi rocking the boat with his public griping at the board.
Selling Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo in the summer. Not signing a single first-team-ready reinforcement in January. And of course, injuries.
10 players are currently out of action. The treatment room needs a revolving door for the number who have passed though it.
Just when it looks like there is some light at the end of the tunnel and the injury list is clearing up, another wave of problems hit. It has been never-ending.
The absence of Mitoma though has been felt on a level unlike anyone else. Already considered one of the best transfer deals done by Brighton having cost only £2.5 million from Kawasaki Frontale, we are now seeing his true value and importance to the Albion.
Karou Mitoma and the back injury which derailed Brighton
What makes the February back injury Mitoma suffered particularly disappointing is that Brighton may have contributed to it themselves.
Mitoma was initially ruled out only for the visit of Everton to the Amex. Most Albion fans assumed it was because of the kicking he took in the previous week’s 5-0 win at Sheffield United.
This included a terrible tackle from Mason Holgate, earning the Blades defender a straight red card with only 13 minutes played.
De Zerbi though confirmed it had nothing to do with the challenge: “No no no, Mitoma suffered something with his back before the Sheffield game. The player of Sheffield has no responsibility for the injury of Kaoru.”
When Mitoma was then later ruled out for the season, those comments made uncomfortable reading. If Mitoma had back issues ahead of the trip to Bramall Lane, why did Brighton play him? Did the Albion exacerbate the situation?
Mitoma at the Asian Cup
The back injury is not the only time Mitoma has been unavailable this season. He left Selhurst Park after the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace in December wearing a protective boot.
Mitoma then jetted off to the Asian Cup. He made a suitable recovery to play for Japan in their round of 16 win over Bahrain on January 31st, also featuring in the Samurai Blue’s quarter final exit to Iran.
In total, Mitoma missed five Premier League games through December and January. Having failed to score in only one match out of 18 before Mitoma’s absence, the Seagulls were goalless in three consecutive fixtures against West Ham United, Wolves and Luton Town without him.
The two games Brighton managed to find the back of the net in were when hitting four against Tottenham Hotspur and Crystal Palace at the Amex.
Spurs played into the Albion’s hands by playing a suicidal high line which Brighton breached time and time again. Palace meanwhile were the most abject visitors seen at the Amex this season.
Brighton form from February onwards after Mitoma injury
Mitoma managed two outings for Brighton in-between his return from Asian Cup duty and being ruled out for the season with injury.
The Albion lost the first 2-1 at Spurs. The second was that 5-0 victory against Sheffield United. He played a part in three of the five Brighton goals, as well as causing the Blades to go down to 10 men.
Since winning at Bramall Lane, the Albion have won just one Premier League game from seven in Mitoma’s absence. To do so, they needed Nottingham Forest defender Andrew Omobamidele to put through his own net for the only goal of the game.
They did not score against Fulham or Brentford. If you include the Forest game and the own goal Burnley provided when Brighton drew 1-1 at Turf Moor, the Albion have failed to score in four matches out of seven without Mitoma.
Brighton also drew blanks in their FA Cup exit at Wolves and the Europa League round of 16 first leg against Roma. Excluding own goals, the Albion have failed to score in seven matches out of 10 across all competitions since Mitoma’s injury.
Goals and points with and without Mitoma
Goals win games – so what impact has Brighton losing Mitoma to long-term injury made to the Seagulls’ points gathering?
Brighton earned 27 points prior to Mitoma going on Asian Cup duty at an average of 1.5 per game. Since his availability dropped, the Albion have taken only 17 at an average of 1.2.
The Albion have scored 35 goals with Mitoma in the team, averaging 1.8 per game. Without Mitoma, the average is only 0.86.
More like Potterball than DeZerbiBall
One of the best attempted-insults dealt the way of WAB on Twitter in recent months was “So you’re one of those people who use facts to back up an argument.” As if that is a bad thing.
In the case of Mitoma, it is not just the numbers which prove how problematic his injury is to Brighton. The Albion have resembled the possession-obsessed side of Graham Potter in recent weeks. Not the thrilling, fast-paced outfit they were under De Zerbi last season.
Without Mitoma, it is sideways pass followed by sideways pass followed by sideways pass. Brighton want to walk the ball into the goal. So much so that fans have compared it to watching walking football.
When the Albion are unable to pass their way through, they look devoid of ideas. Nobody is getting on the ball, running at opponents and causing the sheer panic in opposition Mitoma induces.
What is interesting about Brighton reverting to Potterball rather than DeZerbiBall is that it was Mitoma coming into the starting XI last season that kick started the De Zerbi Era.
De Zerbi did not win any of his first five matches in charge. That set a club record for the worst winless start of a new manager in Brighton history.
His maiden victory came when beating Chelsea 4-1 at the Amex. The same day he ditched Potter’s back three in favour of 4-2-3-1 and gave Mitoma his full debut.
No individual player is therefore more intrinsically linked with the success of DeZerbiBall than Mitoma.
A warning for the summer
The one good thing about injury to Mitoma is it may mean Brighton keep him at the Amex into next season. Barcelona were known to be interested, with rumours suggesting the Spanish giants were set to propose a swap deal of Ansu Fati for Mitoma.
Back problems though are amongst the most troublesome of injuries. They can lead to other muscular issues which are difficult to fix.
It may now be that potential suitors for Mitoma wait to see how he recovers from a lengthy layoff with a back injury before offering mega money for his services.
But should a bid come in, the past few months should act as a warning for what might happen if Brighton do sell Mitoma.
Without him, the Albion have gone from challenging for another top six finish to sliding down the table, out of Europe and out of the FA Cup.
Replacing Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo has proven hard. Based on the evidence of Brighton playing minus their Japanese Bullet Train this season, replacing Mitoma would be impossible.
