A month ago we wrote about Chelsea’s xG stats.
The Blues had just beaten Bournemouth at home, with an xG of 0.8.
In a game where we really struggled, Christopher Nkunku came off the bench and won the game with pretty much our only decent effort of the afternoon. Our attacking options between them – including subs, managed just 3 shots all game.
That followed games with 2.4 xG, 1.6 xG and 1.0xG in the Premier League to open the season. We wrote that those numbers would need to be significantly higher if we wanted to climb the table. If you want to win consistently, you need to produce an xG of over 2 and an xG against of under 1, ideally. Of course the bigger the difference, the better.
So how have Enzo Maresca’s team got on? Very well, in fact. Since that article, their three leagues games have seen them rack up 2.2, 4.2 and 2.3 xG, basically doubling their numbers from before the Bournemouth game. The opposition in those games were relatively weak, but it’s still a big jump up which shows a team pointing in the right direction.
Our aim of giving away fewer good chances was also achieved – 0.9 xGA, 1.1 xGA and 0.9 xGA is a really solid return, and will only improve as the team comes together.
Another major staging post for Maresca’s team
Of course this upcoming run of tough games will make that pattern hard to continue, but as long as the trend continues in the right direction over the course of the next few months, points will keep flowing.
Results so far have been good – and much better than expected. The one vague criticism being levelled at Maresca and his tactics is that things are often getting very chaotic in games, and there’s a lack of control from the Blues. These next matches provide a great platform to show that criticism is harsh.
