Manchester City remain embroiled in their seemingly endless FFP case and the topic has become increasingly complicated in recent months.
While insistent on their innocence, City fought against the Premier League earlier this year as they campaigned for Associated Party Transaction (APT) rules to be removed.
This case recently concluded and Man City reportedly narrowly “won” the hearing “on penalties”, with their biggest success coming via a change to rules regarding shareholder loans.
Previously, certain Premier League clubs had relied on interest-free loans from their owners to help balance the books. But now, these payments will face fair market value (FMV) scrutiny and be accounted for in Profit and Sustainability rules.
This is a big win for Man City as they are one of only six current Premier League clubs that had no shareholder loans in their most recent accounts (taken from the end of the 2022/23 season).
While certain teams with low-value loans will come out of this unscathed, seven clubs – Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Leicester City and Liverpool – owed their owners more than £100m and are more at risk of being sanctioned if the Premier League green-light retrospective punishments for potential PSR breaches.
The Premier League have already been warned that retrospective breaches may spark “chaos” as Arsenal and co. ‘could face a points deduction’.
Are the Premier League likely to swerve the head-f*** of retrospective points deductions to avoid legal battles with more Premier League clubs? Yes. But there’s no fun in that.
So, assuming the seven clubs are punished, here’s our ranking of the clubs based on how severely the teams would be affected by a penalty this season…
7) AFC Bournemouth (£115m)
Andoni Iraola’s rollercoaster debut season at AFC Bournemouth was full of peaks and troughs. But ultimately, he garnered positive results as the board’s decision to sack Gary O’Neil was justified, while their former boss is on the brink as one of the favourites to be the next Premier League manager sacked.
On the early evidence of this season, the Cherries – despite losing Dominic Solanke to Tottenham Hotspur – look primed to consolidate their position as a mid-table Premier League club.
Bournemouth’s ambitious owners are right to strive for growth but for a club of their size, Premier League survival remains the first goal and even with a points deduction, they would achieve that.
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6) Brighton (£373m)
I’ll not name names, but one of the F365 mob said Fabian Hurzeler would be the first manager to be shown the door this season as he (so not Winty) suspected Brighton would finally land on a dud manager. Thankfully for him, we all made a fool of ourselves with our pre-season predictions.
Brighton chief executive Paul Barber had a rare managerial conflict to contend with as an outspoken Roberto De Zerbi gave him some headaches and Hurzeler (he’s 31, by the way) has settled in brilliantly after his side went from big sellers to big spenders in the summer.
Wins over Man Utd, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United – plus a draw at conspiracy theorists Arsenal – have contributed to fifth-placed Brighton’s excellent start. While their European hopes would likely end if they were given a deduction, they would remain in a cushty position in and around the top 10.
5) Chelsea (£146m)
The Blues might be two “game-changer” signings away from winning the title, but Enzo Maresca and his expensive side have surpassed expectations this season as their results have been less erratic than initially expected.
While Chelsea lost at Liverpool, the positive manner of their performance bodes well moving forward as they are increasingly looking like a serious contender for the Champions League places.
A points penalty could dash Chelsea’s hopes of returning to the Champions League this season and according to Maresca, this would not be the end of the world. In August, he claimed: “What I can say is that nobody from the club asked me for the Champions League this year. Nobody said that we need to finish in the (top) four.”
So, no need for panic stations if a points deduction leads to disappointment. It’s not like Todd Boehly and the other drivers of Chelsea’s clown car are known for making rash decisions with managers…
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4) Liverpool (£137m)
It remains to be seen whether Arne Slot’s Liverpool are the real deal, but we’ll have a clearer idea of their potential once they get past this gruelling run of fixtures until the start of December.
For now, it’s all coming up roses at Anfield as Slot has rapidly earned the backing of supporters the old-fashioned way: by winning football matches.
While Sir Alex Ferguson has been “blamed” by a club legend for Man Utd’s recent woes, Jurgen Klopp helped to ensure Liverpool’s succession plan after his exit was far more seamless and this has prevented a huge drop-off from last season.
Before the season, Liverpool would have snatched your hand off had they been offered a repeat of last season’s success in Slot’s debut campaign. The narrow margins of a Premier League title race mean a points deduction would prevent them from pipping Man City and Arsenal, but a top-four finish and possible trophy win would still be within reach.
READ: Arne Slot third on Premier League manager starts list but he’s no Solskjaer!
3) Leicester City (£132m)
The Foxes found a loophole in the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability rules following their promotion from the Championship as they avoided punishment in the summer.
This was embarrassing for the Premier League ahead of their eagerly-awaited case against Man City, while Leicester supporters will already be sick of hearing about PSR rules and their looming threat of points deductions.
The pre-season relegation favourites have found their feet under Steve Cooper of late as back-to-back Premier League wins have moved them clear of the bottom three.
Survival is Leicester’s sole aim this season and while this would still be achievable with a points deduction, a penalty would be a blow to their hopes. But the prospect of relegation will be feared more by one of their rivals at the bottom…
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2) Arsenal (£259m)
Saying a Premier League match in October is a must-win feels dramatic. Arsenal’s home clash against Liverpool on Sunday does not quite qualify, but it’s certainly a must-not-lose game for Mikel Arteta’s side.
Assuming Man City beat Southampton, Arsenal would be six points adrift of the current Premier League title holders and seven away from Liverpool if Slot’s team win at Anfield.
Arsenal are proving that it is not good for your health to compete against Man City and their lack of discipline has seen them concede control in the title race.
A bad result against a direct title rival (or points deduction) could already be the final nail in Arsenal’s coffin.
1) Everton (£451m)
Over £450m owed is quite an alarming figure and this goes to show just how poorly Everton has been run in recent years.
The Toffees have been clinging on in the Premier League by their fingertips for years and in the long run, a post-relegation reset could do them the world of good.
But on the eve of next season’s move to their new stadium, Everton really could do with staying in the Premier League as their reportedly imminent takeover should hopefully see the club gradually move in the right direction.
Sean Dyche has done Sean Dyche things in recent matches as Everton have plucked a four-game unbeaten run from nowhere to move clear of the relegation zone. But last season proved the firefighter’s positive work can be undone by a points deduction. If history were to repeat itself, this would increase their relegation fears, which could lead to them giving an old manager a call to get them out of trouble.
Yet another successful push for survival this season would see Everton get over one final hurdle before they can look forward to brighter days, but a points deduction would make this task increasingly difficult.
