Battle of the Bournemouth bosses – Who will come out on top?

Written by billythekid

Last Two Visits to Molineux Have Seen AFCB Win

After a run of three winning games at Dean Court against Southampton, Arsenal and Manchester City, we lost against Brighton who had 10 men for 37 minutes of the second half. Again it was a game where our side had a lot more shots on goal, but just couldn’t convert them. Our next game is in the Black Country against our old manager Gary O’Neil and his much improved Wolves side at the Molineux Stadium on Saturday at 3 pm.

Wolves v AFCB Wolves Win Vote Draw Vote AFCB Win Vote

Last season which was Gary O’Neil’s first season in charge at Molineux, his side finished 14th with 46 points and his old club AFCB finished 12th with 48 points. This season after twelve games his side are in 17th place with 9 points. AFCB are 13th with 15 points. After a poor start to the season, after eight games, Wolves had picked up 1 point.

At home they lost their first four home games against Chelsea 2-6, Newcastle United Liverpool and Manchester City by the same score of 1-2. They then drew 2-2 with Crystal Palace and this has led to their pick up in form with four games undefeated, which included their first home win against Southampton 2-0. Away from home they have drawn against Nottingham Forest and Brighton and lost to Arsenal, Aston Villa and Brentford. In their most recent game, they beat Fulham convincingly.

The last time our side visited Molineux was in April and a first half goal from Antoine Semenyo decided the game with AFCB winning 0-1, the same result from their previous visit there in 2022-23. In last seasons game, AFCB had Milos Kerkez sent off in the 79th minute.

In our away games against Wolves, AFCB have W 4, D 0, L 3.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 8, D 4, L 6.

Wolves Team News
They have 10 players out injured or through illness, the most in the Premier League according to the injury website. Three/four of them could possibly be available.

Wolves Player To Watch
Matheus Cunha, strong all round player and he has scored 4 goals and had 3 assists in his last four games.

AFCB Team News
Ryan Christie is available again, but Antoine Semenyo is out after collecting his fifth yellow card against Brighton.

AFCB Player To Watch
Ryan Christie was missed in our midfield against Brighton and hope his return can add a ‘spark’ to our side.

The Referee
Peter Bankes will officiate at this game, he took our away league game against West Ham earlier in the season. Last season in the league we had him for our home game against West Ham and that 0-3 away win against Manchester United.

Matt Stevenson added…

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Wolves. These were two home games (C Palace and Southampton) and two away games (Brighton and Fulham) which is a tough run. Wolves are unbeaten and have gained 8 points, which is a good return, although the xG suggests this is an overachievement. Wolves have scored 10 goals and conceded 5 with xG estimating 5.47 goals with 5.51 conceded, so Wolves have been very clinical in their finishing. The 4-1 win against Fulham is an anomaly with an xG of only 1.32.

Wolves have had 7 different goal scorers with only Cunha (with 4 goals) having more than 1. Cunha also has 3 assists, with Mario having 2 with no one else more than 1. Stopping Cunha is likely to be important.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. As we will remember from Gary O’Neil’s time at AFCB, he was a cautious manager, so it is not surprising to see that the majority of players are within Wolves’ defensive half.

The following plot compares summary stats of Wolves and AFCB over the last 4 games.

We have more goal attempts per game and more big chances, but have scored 4 less, which is unusual. Wolves have conceded more chances, but fewer big chances, and have let in fewer goals. There does look like an error in the Wolves team with 3 errors leading to chances compared with AFCB’s none. Re-expected outcomes. xG is slightly in AFCB’s favour whilst xGc is even.

Neither side have had more than 50% possession with pass completion being about 80% for both teams. The percentage of chances created from open play are similar, but AFCB have been conceding a higher percentage from set pieces.

Your say…