Aston Villa’s Great Champions League Escape
“I think we lost the opportunity to get in the top eight,” said a dejected Unai Emery after Aston Villa’s frustrating 1-0 loss to Monaco. His words reflected the bitter disappointment of a performance that failed to meet his expectations, leaving Villa’s Champions League fate seemingly out of their hands. Skipping the play-off round would have provided an extra month for Emery to prepare for the last 16, while securing a minimum of an extra €10 million in prize money, compared to the €1 million earned by clubs departing at the play-off stage.
Heading into the final matchday, Villa’s hopes looked all but over. MOMS had all but written off their top-eight ambitions, with many of Villa’s direct rivals facing favourable fixtures. It was expected that Villa would drop down the table, making their final game against Celtic feel like little more than a formality.
Football, is a funny old game though, and across two nights of action, results elsewhere unfolded in an extraordinary manner. A win over Celtic now offers Villa a genuine shot at securing a top-eight finish – something that seemed almost impossible when the team and Villa supporters were leaving the Stade Louis II stadium in Monaco, last week.
Villa’s Big Slice of Luck – the German Collapse
It was as if Emery had been rubbing Peter Withe’s shin for luck as unexpected results tumbled in Villa’s favour. The biggest concern had been the German duo of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, who both had favourable run-ins and were immediate threats to Villa’s position.
Bayern Munich, needing only a draw away to Feyenoord to set up a routine qualification, completely self-destructed. Despite 80% possession, 30 shots, and an xG of 2.8, they somehow suffered a 3-0 defeat in Rotterdam, conceding from every one of Feyenoord’s three shots on target. With Bayern expected to close their group stage against Slovan Bratislava, a team yet to earn a single point, their loss to Feyenoord effectively threw away their top-eight spot.
Once again, the city of Rotterdam had blessed Villa.
Borussia Dortmund were another side expected to jump ahead of Villa, needing only a draw away to Bologna to move above Emery’s side on goal difference. The Germans seemed set to cruise through after taking the lead inside 15 minutes against a Bologna team already eliminated.
However, the Italians, despite playing in what was effectively a dead rubber, fought back to win 2-1 and kept Dortmund within reach. The two German giants, renowned for their efficiency in the Champions League, had both suffered monumental slip-ups. Instead of sitting comfortably in the top eight, they now sit a point behind Villa, meaning a win over Celtic would ensure they remain out of reach.
The Old Lady and Brest’s Performance Issues
Juventus also had a golden opportunity to leapfrog Villa with a one-goal win away at Club Brugge. Despite Brugge failing to register a single shot on target in the entire match, the Italians failed to find a breakthrough, settling for a 0-0 draw that has left their top-eight hopes hanging by a thread.
The impressive Brest entered their penultimate game level on points with Villa and were widely expected to claim at least a draw against Shakhtar Donetsk in what was effectively a neutral venue in Gelsenkirchen. Instead, the already-eliminated Ukrainians handed the French side a 2-0 defeat, significantly denting their top-eight hopes. Brest now face Real Madrid in their final game, meaning their chances of matching Villa’s final points tally and overtaking them on goal difference are very slim.
Had these results played out as expected, Villa could have easily been sitting in 12th or 13th place going into the last round, with their top-eight dreams essentially dead.
Current Champions League Table
Further Results That Helped Villa
Other results went Villa’s way too, although they were perhaps less surprising. RB Leipzig, already eliminated, finally found their first Champions League win of the season, beating Sporting CP 2-1. A win for Sporting would have put them level on points with Villa, making things even more precarious.
Liverpool also did their part, beating Lille 2-1 at Anfield. While Liverpool were always favourites, the game was level at 1-1 on the hour mark, meaning a draw would have pushed Lille above Villa.
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Other Impactful Results
Not all results went Villa’s way. Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen looked set to serve up another favourable outcome, with their clash locked at 1-1. At that moment, Villa were in 8th place, but a last-minute winner from Julian Alvarez saw Atletico snatch the victory, propelling them above Villa into 5th.
The Italian ‘home bankers’ also delivered, with AC Milan edging past Girona 1-0 and Atalanta thrashing Sturm Graz 5-0. Any dropped points there would have been a minor miracle, but with those results going against Villa, their fate is still delicately poised.
Villa’s Path to the Top Eight
In simple terms, if Villa beat Celtic and Atalanta don’t win away at Barcelona, then all will be good.
There is also a secondary route. AC Milan face Dynamo Zagreb away, while Atletico Madrid travel to Red Bull Salzburg. Both sides currently sit two points ahead of Villa, meaning that if Villa beat Celtic, a draw in either of those games wouldn’t be enough for Milan or Madrid to stay ahead, due to their inferior goal difference. While both teams are favourites in those fixtures, as we saw in the last round of games European away games can prove tricky.
With Villa’s destiny now largely back in their hands, the pressure is on Unai Emery’s men to deliver. A convincing performance against Celtic is essential, and should Atalanta falter in Spain, Villa could turn what once seemed a disastrous group stage finish into a glorious great escape into the last 16.