Last week I was fascinated to hear Geo & Gonzo debating Graham Potter’s time at Brighton & Hove Albion. The pair were focusing on the Seagulls struggles with scoring goals, and then comparing that to West Ham’s current performance and tactics under Potter.
The general gist of the conversation was that Gonzo believed the Hammers were supposed to be getting a more attacking based coach in Potter, whereas Geo argued that he was in fact a pragmatic manager. That the teams lack of goals was precisely what was served up at Brighton.
The conversation was an intriguing one, particularly given West Ham have scored 9 goals in 9 Premier League games under Potter so far. The debate prompted and intriguing question-is Graham Potters style of football and stepping stone to greater things or totally reflective of his football mantra?
Brighton & Hove Albion Under Graham Potter: Goal-Scoring Struggles
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2019-20 Season: Brighton finished 15th with 41 points, scoring 39 goals in 38 matches (1.03 goals per game). They conceded 54 goals, suggesting a decent defensive foundation but a lack of cutting edge up front. Their expected goals (xG) was 44.8, meaning they underperformed by about 5.8 goals, pointing to poor finishing or a lack of clinical strikers.
- 2020-21 Season: They ended 16th with 41 points again, scoring 40 goals in 38 games (1.05 goals per game) and conceding 46. Their xG was 51.7, a significant overperformance in chance creation, but they underperformed this by 11.7 goals—among the worst differentials in the league that year. This season highlighted a recurring issue: creating chances but failing to convert them.
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2021-22 Season: Potter’s best year on the South Coast saw them finish 9th with 51 points, scoring 42 goals in 38 matches (1.11 goals per game) and conceding 44. Their xG was 45.9, with an underperformance of 3.9 goals. While this was an improvement, their shot conversion rate remained low at 8.6%, the fourth-worst in the league.
Potters Brighton team did not score freely
Across these three full seasons, Brighton scored 121 goals in 114 Premier League games under Potter, averaging 1.06 goals per game. Their shot conversion rate hovered around 8-9%, consistently among the league’s lowest, and they struggled with big-chance conversion (e.g., 22.6% in 2019-20, the worst in the league).
Players like Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck were industrious but not prolific, with Maupay’s 26 goals in 109 appearances epitomising the issue. Brighton’s style—fluid, with forwards dropping deep and wing-backs providing width—often led to dominance in possession and shots (12-13 per game), but not goals.
This is not completely reflective of West Ham under Potter where the Hammers are currently the most shot-shy side in the whole division. The 10 goal attempts against David Moyes Everton team last weekend was completely consistent with the 9.6 per game the side are averaging under the new boss.
Potters problem at Brighton wasn’t chance creation; their xG totals suggest they generated decent opportunities. Instead, it was a mix of poor finishing, a lack of a top-tier striker, and perhaps a tactical setup that prioritised control over ruthlessness. For instance, in 2020-21, they faced the fourth-fewest shots (358) and had the third-lowest xG against (35.8), yet conceded 46 goals, showing defensive lapses compounded their scoring woes. Fans and analysts noted that Brighton could dominate games—like their 4-0 win over Manchester United in 2021-22—but too often settled for draws or narrow losses due to missed chances.
Potter used Paqueta as a number 9 in his first games
More of the same at The London Stadium?
West Ham Under Graham Potter: 9 Goals in 9 Games
At West Ham where Potter has managed 9 Premier League games since taking over in January, with The Irons scoring 9 goals. This translates to exactly 1 goal per game—slightly below Brighton’s average under Potter.
But before anyone gets too alarmed, it is worth noting most pundits agreed that Brighton were a top quality striker away from being a very effective team. It’s difficult to know what the Seagulls could have achieved under Potter without the intervention of Chelsea who poached Potter when Hove Albion were 5th in the League.
It could be that at West Ham, GP has the financial muscle to sign the sort of striker he couldn’t afford at Brighton. After all, nobody can waste big money on a forward quite like The Hammers.
