Ilkay Gundogan’s shot which beat David de Gea to win the FA Cup final would have been saved 81 per cent of the time by Premier League goalkeepers – according to a stats company.
The Manchester City captain didn’t get a clean left-footed connection as he volleyed Kevin De Bruyne’s free-kick towards goal from the edge of the Manchester United penalty area.
But Gundogan’s shot still beat United keeper De Gea low to his right after bouncing twice before finding the bottom corner.
Although the Spaniard may have been unsighted by United defenders rushing out, he was still criticised for being slow to react.
It came as his status as United’s No 1 goalkeeper is under threat amid negotiations over a new Old Trafford contract, with Erik ten Hag keen on signing another stopper to challenge De Gea next season.
David de Gea was slammed for allowing Ilkay Gundogan to score Manchester City’s winner
The Man United keeper was criticised for his slow reactions to Ilkay Gundogan’s volley
The Spanish goalkeeper couldn’t prevent Ilkay Gundogan’s shot from bobbling in the goal
John Harrison, the head of data science at Goalkeeper.com, tweeted that shots similar to Gundogan’s were saved by Premier League goalkeepers 81 per cent of the time.
In other words, just one such effort in five finds the back of the net as Gundogan’s did on Saturday.
Harrison wrote: ‘Should De Gea have saved the FA Cup final winner?
‘It’s hard to tell by eye as while the shot was from range and moving slowly it came through bodies and bounced awkwardly.
‘At goalkeeper.com we use these factors and many more and find this shot is saved 81% of the time by PL GKs.’
De Gea, 32, has endured a mixed season for United – although he won the Premier League Golden Glove award for the most clean sheets, he has made a number of costly errors.
Harrison highlighted two such mistakes in a follow-up post – one in the 4-0 defeat by Brentford back in August and another in the 1-0 loss at West Ham in May.
Goalkeeper analyst John Harrison tweeted that such a shot is saved four times out of five by stoppers in Premier League football
Manchester United’s defenders failed to pick up Gundogan on the edge of their box and the German midfielder was picked out by Kevin De Bruyne’s free-kick from the right touchline
De Gea was slow to react to the volley despite being unsighted by a number of his defenders
He wasn’t able to get across on the goal-line quickly enough to prevent the ball squeezing in
He said the two goals, which saw De Gea allow the ball to squirm past his body, had save probabilities of 96 per cent and 98 per cent respectively.
He added: ‘Thus the FA Cup final winner was hardly a ‘howler’ given it goes in about 1 in 5 times but it is still a shot a GK with De Gea’s shot stopping ability would want to make!’
De Gea could do little about Gundogan’s first goal, a stunning volley after just 12 seconds of Saturday’s final at Wembley.
United equalised through a Bruno Fernandes penalty after Jack Grealish was controversially adjudged by VAR to have handled Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s header.
But Gundogan’s second proved decisive as City added the FA Cup to their Premier League title and took another step towards emulating United’s 1999 Treble triumph.
Pep Guardiola’s side take on Inter Milan in next Saturday’s Champions League final in Istanbul to complete the set.
United manager Ten Hag defended De Gea after Roy Keane criticised him during ITV’s coverage of the final.
Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag, right, defended De Gea from criticism for City’s goal
There were questions raised as to whether De Gea should’ve done better with the effort
Keane said: ‘United have got to get a new goalkeeper. They need a world class striker and a new goalkeeper.
‘They need some other players and some strength in depth but they need a new goalkeeper and a world class striker. I’m sick of saying it.’
Former Arsenal striker Ian Wright agreed and said: ‘They need to at least get a goalkeeper. We’ve seen some big mistakes from him this season and they need to at least get a goalkeeper that’s going to push him.
‘So if he is going to make those mistakes they have someone who can come in and then they can have their turn.
‘He’s made a lot of mistakes. But it’s the kind of shot that is bouncing two or three times before its got to him which says his positioning may not have been right in the first place.’
De Gea, who is in talks with Manchester United over a new contract, picks the ball out of his net
De Gea made a howler against West Ham last month when Said Benrahma’s shot creeped in
Keane then continued his analysis. He said: ‘That’s the thing with top goalkeepers, they get you over the line in certain games and could have been the difference today.
‘You expect your keeper to save that and he didn’t and that’s why we’re seeing these celebrations. For Man United, they need a world class goalkeeper and he isn’t’.
But quizzed on De Gea’s apparent discomfort on paying out from the back, a key component if ten Hag’s game, the United manager commented: ‘Say it like this, we are in the right directions but there are issues in the game that we have to improve if we want to make the next step and win trophies.’
De Gea is on the verge of agreeing a contract extension but it is widely expected that United will attempt to sign a No.2 keeper more at home with ten Hag’s style, even if it doesn’t appear to be a central part of United’s summer plan.
