Stick or twist is the question dominating minds in the Championship as the January transfer window draws near.
That is true of most seasons but this year, it applies more than ever. How much, for example, do Leicester City or Ipswich Town need to do in the market, having smashed through the first half of their fixture lists? Are the squads at Leeds United and Southampton giving much call for improvement? And further down the league, considering the pace at the top of it, is it prudent for anyone to throw much money at the fairly slim prospect of promotion via the play-offs?
Daniel Farke has already predicted that Leeds will be reserved in January and their position in the table is not encouraging steep investment. There are isolated areas in which the club’s resources could be stronger or deeper but, as a whole, Farke sounds fairly satisfied with his lot. Here, The Athletic looks at what to expect from this window.
Last three January window spends
2021: £0
2022: £0
2023: £40m (Georginio Rutter, £30m from Hoffenheim; Max Wober, £10m from Red Bull Salzburg; Weston McKennie, on loan from Juventus).
Rutter was signed last January (Ben Roberts Photo/Getty Images)
Signing no one in 2021 was a decision that Leeds and Marcelo Bielsa mutually agreed upon. In that window, he was happy with his dressing room and Leeds were well on the way to a top-half finish in the Premier League.
But 2022 was very different. Bielsa needed players and Leeds could not serve up options he was willing to take. Harry Winks and Donny van de Beek were potential loan deals Bielsa rejected. The paralysis during his final January was symptomatic of the fracturing relationship between him and the club’s hierarchy.
As if bitten by that inaction, last season’s winter window saw Leeds commit around £40m in fees by breaking their transfer record for Rutter, bringing in Wober from Salzburg and loaning McKennie from Juventus. They hoped that injection of money would keep them up. Sadly not.
How much money is likely to be available?
Not an endless supply. It is not that Leeds do not have funding behind them. Substantial finance was pulled together by 49ers Enterprises when it put together its bid to buy the club from Andrea Radrizzani at the end of last season. But in the Championship, teams are governed by profit and sustainability (P&S) rules, which limit their losses and also restrict the amount of cash owners can invest.
Leeds have put together a strong squad within those limits but if they are not promoted this season, they will have little option but to sell key players when it ends. Those exits would be necessary to make sure that they stayed on the right side of P&S. As Farke said a little while back, the major and strategic decisions for the 2023-24 campaign were taken before the last window closed in August. So while the club have scope to do some business in January, don’t expect it to be startling — unless someone significant were to depart.
Wober, signed last January, now on loan at Borussia Monchengladbach (Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)
Who makes the key decisions about signings?
Farke. That is not to say that Leeds don’t have a broad recruitment team, all of whom are involved in the process. Gretar Steinsson is their technical director. Nick Hammond remains on board as a recruitment consultant having played a key role in negotiating deals during the summer. Part of the remit of Robbie Evans, Leeds’ new chief strategy officer, is to increase the application of data and analytics in transfer dealings. United have other scouts and analysts in-house too.
Nothing is done without Farke having the final say, however, which was how he insisted it had to be when he took the job as first-team manager in July. Part of the reason he asked for the title of manager specifically was that he didn’t want to be a head coach who had players or tactical structures hoisted upon him. This is very much his squad and his plan.
What are the priority positions?
Leeds could do with an extra left-back. Farke said he had been thinking of bringing one in even before Sam Byram and Junior Firpo got injured, but those absences must be crystallising his thinking. Byram has been excellent but his injury issues mean Leeds cannot lean on him too much or expect him to be unbreakable. Firpo has hardly been available and his performances rarely erase doubts about his game and suitability.
Left-back aside, No 10 would appear to be the position where Farke’s choice is slimmest. If he is not going with the Rutter-Joel Piroe combination up front, it is not clear who is best suited to that role — Farke has players who could have a go, but he does not have many obvious specialists.
Byram has had injury issues this season (Jess Hornby/Getty Images)
What do we know about who the targets might be?
It was amusing to see it written in Germany that Nadiem Amiri was regretting his failure to join Leeds in August, and that the Bayer Leverkusen midfielder might like the possibility to resurface in January; amusing because Leeds were deeply unhappy with the way negotiations with him fell apart. Farke tends to be fairly ruthless and uncompromising in situations like that and it would be a surprise if United thought about revisiting Amiri.
They had a good look at left-back Charlie Taylor in the summer but Taylor looks too involved at Burnley to be an option, even though his contract expires at the end of this season. It has to be said that very little has come out of Elland Road. That might be a reflection of the fact that they have not been planning for a wildly dramatic window.
Who could be on their way out?
Joe Gelhardt and Charlie Cresswell have been told that they will be staying at Leeds, despite their lack of minutes. While a loan deal might appeal to one or both of them, Farke is not willing to lose them at this stage. There is substantial interest in Cresswell, though, so it remains to be seen if that position holds with him routinely failing to make the bench.
In contrast, United are very open to interest in Lewis Bate and Leo Hjelde, neither of whom is in the picture at all. Bate’s deal is six months from ending.
In terms of more prominent squad members, the question mark is probably around Wilfried Gnonto. Will anyone go for him, as Everton tried to in the summer? And given his reaction to those offers, what will he do if more bids are tabled in January? There are suggestions around Gnonto that he is considering changing agent — and Leeds have always been minded to tie him to an improved deal were Gnonto willing to sign one.
Farke has been very clear to this point — he is not interested in losing anyone important next month, and Leeds’ owners look ready to withstand unwanted approaches. This might be one of those windows when the biggest priority is to get to the end of it without any damaging departures.
GO DEEPER
Leeds United’s recruitment – and the players Farke fought to keep – is paying off
(Top photo: Gnonto by Ben Roberts; Cresswell by George Wood; both via Getty Images)
