Crystal Palace’s Crown Jewels Need More Than Group 4 Security To See Off Predators

Can’t wait for this transfer window to shut? When Palace play Chelsea next month, how many of our crown jewels will remain?

Olise has gone. And, if clickbait becomes reality, there’s a risk that by next month Oliver Glasner will have too few players to pick a proper team, and Steve Parish will be the guy with the fat offshore bank account phoning it in from his private island.

Supporting Palace has changed. On match days in the old days, you might bump into a part-time scout from a lower league club, in the Sunlight Transport Café for a pre-match fry-up cooked in a wok by Mr Wong. These days, such is the quality and depth of talent we currently have, Slurst attracts the eyeballs of global agents plus officials from European giants like Real Madrid and Bayern – and of course every one of the Premier League’s Big Six. This probably explains some of the lux motors in the matchday car park.

Stars at international tournaments are Palace players!

Can you imagine? To be a player who’s part of an elite national group playing the cup final of a major tournament watched by the world? Only one match matters more – the World Cup Final itself.

For most of our current internationals, the major tournaments this summer have been the stuff of dreams.

Since we crushed Villa at Slurst in May, life for these Palace stars has been breathtaking, surrounded by exceptional athletes for several weeks in a 24/7 bubble where their “family” included countless household names. Our boys had no doubt wished for this moment for many years, so this was a pinnacle of their life.

Brilliant for them – but unsettling too. It only takes a second for an international colleague who’s a national legend to whisper, “Come join us”.

This summer, big clubs have openly drooled over Palace players, notably our goal scoring Colombians and the closest thing to Bobby Moore that I’ve ever seen. Munoz, Lerma and Guehi were all performing at nosebleed high levels, and we also had a brief treat of watching Target Eze perform ridiculously well out of position (my apology, too much clickbait, I mistakenly thought Target was Eze’s new first name), while top clubs surely noticed Wharton and Henderson suddenly pop up as tournament squad quality.

Meanwhile, two Palace strikers were also busy out there raising their game and their profile. At Finland’s top level, Plange plundered a hat trick. And then we saw Mateta giving it his unique French flourish, grabbing goals and wearing the armband, leading France to the Olympic Final!

With Olise off, how could pre-season be so positive so far?

If you told me 3 summers ago that we would sell Michael Olise so soon for north of £50m, I would’ve snapped your hand off. So it feels wrong to complain. The silky skills of Olise will now become a new joy to millions of football fans across Europe. Good luck, Michael, well done and thank you for 3 exceptional years. You graced our games as we watched you grow into a very high class footballer.

So far this window, apart from Olise, transfer activity has worked in our favour. At the time of writing, our other precious players are being protected from predators – we hope!

Meanwhile, the excellent-looking early-window double upgrade cost only £12m. In recent seasons, Jairo and Tomkins (loved ’em both) were no more than useful subs, but Riad and Kamada both step into the squad as current internationals who performed capably last week in America and appear very ready for Premier League action. Riad is a product of Barcelona academy and only 20, but has a whole La Liga season behind him. Kamada? Well, you may not know that Igor Tudor, the Lazio manager, was so upset when Kamada left for Palace that he walked out as well. I’m sure there’s other reasons for that, but there can’t be many. Tudor was only there for 3 months.

Now Sarr, another established international and Premier League-ready player, has finally come to Slurst for many millions less than seemed likely in previous windows. Time will tell if this is another Freedman masterstroke.

Windfalls coming?

Palace will get an extra windfall or two this summer. Jake O’Brien, who left us for £850,000 a year ago and blossomed at Lyon, has signed for Everton for £17m plus extras. No £17m for us, sadly, but a sell-on fee will now profit Palace by millions. Scott Banks and Hiram Boateng also moved on. We wish them well.

Meanwhile, cash from selling Olise and any other sales or windfalls will likely be split three ways – settling debts, paying towards the glitzy new grandstand, and hopefully keeping some for Glasner’s kitty to spend more now on building the team that he wants.

As the window ticks past, we get the repeated lesson that Steve Parish is a particularly hard nut to crack. In fact, June saw Steve conclude perhaps his best piece of guarding work this year, holding off the Saudis and the richest man in Britain to persuade The Doog to sign a new contract. Now we know the Palace crown jewel I/C squad upgrades this season is sure to be the one whose transfer acumen has been so desired (so desperately) by billionaires and their clubs.

Increasing player values

Latest market value data from Transfermarkt is worth a second look. The numbers prove our eyes are not deceiving us. Palace have more quality on the pitch – and on the bench – than ever before.

Squad Value in Millions of Euros (per Transfermarkt 05/08/2024)

2013/14 – 68

2014/15 – 97

2015/16 – 130

2016/17 – 217

2017/18 – 198

2018/19 – 259

2019/20 – 175

2020/21 – 183

2021/22 – 246

2022/23 – 308

2023/24 – 437

Squad depth surging too

Competition for places is no longer a dream, it’s become a reality. Growing numbers of Palace players are now valued over €10,000,000 (per Transfermarkt 05/08/2024);

2013/14 – 0

2014/15 – 2

2015/16 – 2

2016/17 – 7

2017/18 – 6

2018/19 – 10

2019/20 – 4

2020/21 – 3

2021/22 – 8

2022/23 – 10

2023/24 – 17

The more competition for places, the more valuable the work of the coach

For Glasner’s team to win matches, he already proved he doesn’t always need star players. Sure, the Olise-sized gap needs filling, but Sarr has arrived, and we can hope that Franca is not the only one competing for his place.

Glasner is of course currently enjoying an extra valuable benefit from his early arrival at Palace. The original plan was for him to arrive in July. If that had happened, Glasner would have now been in deep difficulty with half a team absent for his first preseason. Instead, all our crown jewels in tournaments who now stay with Palace will enter the new season fully versed in the new manager’s requirements.

In the months ahead, this familiarity and continuity could prove crucial. It certainly appeared so in the Stateside Cup.And that includes all the youngsters who had an unexpected opportunity of an overseas tour as part of the first team squad.

A Terrific Setup

From a sinking scene when he arrived in February, Glasner has so far engineered a terrific setup for the coming season. 

In his first six months, two in-depth bonding trips to Marbella and now America have enabled his coaching team to gain deep insights into the players we have and the ones we need. On the pitch, performances and results continue to please. In America, we won both games. It may “only” be the Stateside Cup, but ask O’Neill and Lopetegui if they wished they’d been lifting silverware. You know the answer

A Glasner secret

In both US matches, you couldn’t escape the feeling that control sat with Palace. Yet stats said it was our opponents who dominated possession.

This contradiction is one of Glasner’s secrets. Check the numbers more carefully and perhaps we’ll find an answer.

Under Glasner, Palace like to limit opponents to mostly harmless possession, far from our net. But, when we win the ball back, Palace football is fast, efficient and focused on more shots on goal.

Indeed, Palace are consistently beating opponents in one key match stat. To get a shot on target, we need fewer passes than they do.

How many passes required to get one shot on target

Good news from the Board Room too!

With Olise’s sale, we won’t be breaking any PSR rules for a while. Plus, Palace annual accounts came up squeaky clean. Although debts are rising and losses continue, the expert view seems to be that it’s all under control. Which it very much needs to be, with a giant For Sale sign up for John Textor’s 45% stake.

When Textor arrived in 2021, he said the current owners all wanted to buy more shares, so perhaps it would be good if they still do.

In any case, the Guardian recently reported there are no fewer than 14 investors interested in Palace, and perhaps we should be comforted that even Everton drew a queue of buyers ready to write a nine-figure cheque. If Everton are sold for the rumoured £850m by the way, it’s no wonder their fans are so unhappy when this price shows their new ground is worth more than the entire playing squad.

No fear of that here – not yet, anyway. Player values are rising, we have a smiling successful manager and, even though Parish has “golden control”, rich people around the world seem to currently covet owning shares in a Premier League club.

2024/25 Fixtures

We have a string of tough home matches in the autumn and a run of difficult away games in the spring, including the last four in a row.

If our goal is to stay up, we need above-average away results up to Christmas, strong home form in the spring and enough points in the bag by end-March to avoid a worrying run-in.

If we’re hunting for clues as to whether Palace  can reach higher into the top half, look for positive home results first half of season, and points gathered away from home in the second half.

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