Written by Matt Stevenson
Here is the xG timeline for the Liverpool game. I was listening on the radio, and have only seen brief highlights, so may have some details inaccurate. Whilst the first 10 minutes appear uneventful, AFCB had a goal rightly disallowed for offside, but the fact that the commentators initially didn’t even consider that Semenyo was offside, the linesman didn’t flag and the Liverpool players weren’t appealing, made this more frustrating. After 20 minutes the game was still evenly poised, with the xG 0.39 to 0.31 in Liverpool’s favour with a good chance for both Nunez and for Semenyo which were both saved. Liverpool then kicked on, whilst AFCB struggled to create anything. Kepa made a good save from Diaz (rated 1 in 5) but then was caught in no man’s land as Diaz controlled the ball, went around the Keeper and beat Araujo on the line. This was rated 1 in 8, but this feels markedly too low in my view. Two minutes later it was 2-0, Alexander-Arnold running at our defence and finding Diaz who scored again (1 in 4). AFCB still tried to push forward and created very minor chances, but the game felt over in the 36th minute when Nunez cut in from the right and fired a shot that went in off the inside of the post. (1 in 16). Salah had a similarly rated chance, but this was largely it for the half. At the break, the xG was Liverpool 1.10, AFCB 0.46, demonstrating Liverpool’s clinical finishing.
Second halves are often drab affairs once the game is essentially over, and the opening 25 minutes were largely event-free, spiced up only by a double chance for Salah in the 58th minute, one blocked (rated 1 in 6) and 1 saved (1 in 4) and a Nunez chance (1 in 10). AFCB were trying but with low-rated opportunities. The last 15 minutes livened up with shots from Chiesi that hit the post and a blocked shot by Jones (both 1 in 7) and attempts by Sinisterra, one that was well saved by Kelleher (1 in 10), and a header that hit the bar (1 in 6). Liverpool had the better chances in the second half, but it was closer (0.96 vs 0.62) and at the end of the game it was Liverpool 2.06, AFCB 1.08. Understat had a similar xG margin with Liverpool 2.44 and AFCB 1.47.
Man of the match against Liverpool
Kerkez
Kepa
O. Dango
Zabarnyi
Cook
Sinisterra
Semenyo
Someone else
There were 3 changes, but only one surprise. Kepa (13), who couldn’t play against his parent club came back into goal and Araujo (22) replaced Smith but Senesi was on the bench (at the time of writing I don’t know if this was due to an injury) and was replaced by Huijsen (2). It was the standard lop-sided back four, with Kerkez (3) pushed up high. We tried to play our standard press, and there are pros and cons of this, the pro being we don’t change the process and will be set for this in the games against weaker teams coming up, the con is that we are trying this against one of the best clubs in the world and would be exposed if the press was beaten. At half-time, Kluivert (19) who had been booked was replaced by Ouattara (11) with Tavernier (16) playing more in the 10-role and Ouattara wide left. After 70 minutes there was a triple change, with Christie (10), Semenyo (24) and Araujo being replaced by Scott (8), Sinisterra (17) and Smith (15). The first two coming off were on yellow cards and thus Iraola may have been being cautious. Smith for Araujo and Scott for Christie were straight swaps, Sinisterra for Semenyo probably resulted in Ouattar going to the right, but I’m guessing here. The average position of Sinisterra was incredibly advanced, the highest of any AFCB player this season. Six minutes later, Unal (26) replaced Evanilson in a like-for-like swap.
AFCB had 32 touches in the opposition’s penalty area (8 from Ouattara). Liverpool had 33 touches in our penalty area.
AFCB players were tackled 20 times, Tavernier was tackled six times, with Ouattara tackled four times.
AFCB created 14 chances (1 big, created by Evanilson). Tavernier created 3 chances. Liverpool created 18 chances, 4 big.
The Opta expected goals had Semenyo and Sinisterra as joint-most likely to score (0.35) closely followed by Tavernier at 0.42. For assists, Evanilson (0.24) was top, with only Cook (0.19) above 0.10.
AFCB won 20 of 36 tackles. Both Kerkez and Zabarnyi won 3 from 3, and Araujo would be disappointed winning 1 from 6.
According to Opta, AFCB made one error leading to a goal, which was by Kepa for the opening goal.
The foul count was AFCB 12, Liverpool 9 although the booking count was 4 to 1, with the radio commentators suggesting this would not be expected by a neutral. Kluivert made most fouls (3). Kerkez was fouled four times.