Christmas has passed, and Tottenham Hotspur finds itself in the bottom half of the Premier League table. While three matches in the next 10 days present an opportunity for quick movement — especially with just six points separating fifth and 13th — it feels like Spurs’ chances to salvage this domestic campaign are reaching the danger zone. Boxing Day’s visit to a top-four Nottingham Forest side is just one match in isolation, but given the current state of affairs, every single fixture feels massive.
Forest has enjoyed a remarkable start to the season, though analytics and betting markets are slow to believe. Spurs are still given comparable odds to secure a top-four finish, despite the current eight-point gap. These projections may be valid once key absentees are back to full health, but for now these sides look nothing alike. A win on Thursday could fuel optimism for a resurgence, but a loss would validate Tottenham’s place in the table.
Nottingham Forest (4th, 31pts) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (t-11th, 23pts)
Date: Thursday, December 26
Time: 10:00 am ET, 3:00 pm UK
Location: The City Ground, Nottingham
TV: Peacock (US), Amazon Prime Video (UK)
How does a team ranked 13th in goals scored sit in fourth place? The answer lies in Forest’s stingy defense, which has conceded just 19 goals in 17 matches. Despite a nearly even goal difference, Forest has mastered the art of efficient scoring — winners of four of its last five, three came by a single goal. It has been quite the season for Nuno Espirito Santo after just barely escaping relegation following his appointment last winter.
Tottenham played a pivotal role in that managerial shake-up, defeating Steve Cooper’s side 2-0 at the City Ground, a result that ultimately led to Nuno’s appointment. Spurs completed the league double with a 3-1 victory at the new Lane, thanks to goals from Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro. Since Forest’s promotion in 2022/23, Spurs have taken all 12 points, though Forest did manage a win in the League Cup that season.
All or Nothing
While Forest has thrived on narrow victories, Tottenham has been the opposite: the last five league wins have all been by at least three goals. Spurs’ attack has been inconsistent this season, but they have scored 16 goals in their past five matches across all competitions. Unfortunately, defensive frailties have been equally prominent, making Tottenham one of the league’s most high-event teams. This clash of styles — Forest’s defensive discipline against Spurs’ attacking firepower — sets the stage for an interesting affair.
Despite Forest’s defensive solidity, Tottenham’s red-hot attack gives it reasons for optimism. Newcastle, Arsenal, and City each put three past Forest in (somewhat) recent victories, exposing its potential vulnerabilities. Ange Postecoglou’s side has shown its attacking prowess lately, as the key injuries at the club are more detrimental to the defense. If Spurs are to leave the City Ground with three points, they will need to rely on their attackers to compensate for a shaky back line yet again.
The strongest wills
Postecoglou remains steadfast in his philosophy and approach. Critics frustrated with his commitment to an attacking style that leaves the defense exposed will not find solace anytime soon. However, a loss to the league’s best team does not really teach us anything new. Even a more conservative style would not suddenly make this group of defenders world-class, and any such shift would inevitably come at the expense of the team’s attacking prowess.
I agree with Postecoglou’s belief that the only viable path is to press forward, regardless of who is available. While this may lead to continued frustrations, it is essential to view this as a long-term project rather than a quick fix. Watching teams like Forest climb the table on the back of strong defending can be disheartening, but that is not the direction this club has chosen. A win Thursday would go a long way to justify this path that has been established.
