Clubs relegated from the Premier League are usually well-placed to bounce back instantly. Parachute payments and the imbalance they create have long been a bug-bear of those in the Championship who lack the same level of income.
But the science is far from exact. Since the formation of the Premier League in 1992, England has never seen a season in which the three clubs who dropped out of the top flight all won promotion 12 months later.
This season, though, is presenting a good chance of history being set. With 16 games gone, Leicester City are at the top of the table, separated by goal difference from Ipswich Town. Leeds United lie third and, before the international break, cut the gap to the leaders to eight points. Southampton are fourth, a point off Leeds.
Three of The Athletic’s journalists — Rob Tanner for Leicester City, Phil Hay for Leeds United and Jacob Tanswell for Southampton — discussed how and why all three have been so convincing…
Thinking back to when Leeds, Leicester and Southampton went down, how realistic was a proper promotion challenge?
Tanner: It wasn’t just realistic; it was expected. Leicester realised where they had gone wrong and that they still had a squad of players more than capable of winning promotion, even though they knew they would lose some key players, such as James Maddison. That would have happened regardless of whether they scraped Premier League survival. Leicester also knew that, after some adjustments, they had the budget and infrastructure — the stadium, training ground and fanbase — to rebuild upon.
Hay: Leeds didn’t even have EFL approval for 49ers Enterprises’ pending takeover on the day that they appointed Daniel Farke as manager. Farke came in less than 24 hours before the first session of pre-season training, without a single new player signed at that stage. His appointment did not immediately restore stability, either. He was juggling politics and internal pressures up until the very end of the transfer window.
Daniel Farke has brought stability to Leeds (Nathan Stirk via Getty Images)
In retrospect, people will look at Farke’s credentials, the quality of the squad he has now and the players he could recruit and say that Leeds were bound to be in the running for promotion. But that ignores the nuance of a very difficult close season, which would have had negative consequences without some astute and bold management.
Tanswell: No one at Southampton really knew how realistic a promotion push would be. Another summer of overhaul from owner Sport Republic included a complete gear shift in playing style and recruitment, with the players who stayed transitioning from a hard-pressing setup to another league and learning how to keep the ball. They have become the Championship’s most possession-dominant side.
There had to be a change in attitude among supporters, which required patience. The shift in policy was influenced by most of the hierarchy leaving (or being pushed out of the door), with Jason Wilcox arriving from Manchester City as director of football. Enzo Maresca, now at Leicester, was Wilcox’s first choice as manager, but second-choice Russell Martin has crafted the Championship’s most possession-dominant side this season, despite never leading a side to a league finish higher than 10th.
What did they get right in the aftermath of relegation?
Tanner: Two things stand out at Leicester. The appointment of Maresca may have seemed a risk as he had little experience as a manager, but he obviously had great pedigree as a coach, having helped Manchester City win the treble. Pretty much all the backroom team departed as a new broom swept through the club’s Seagrave training ground, lifting everyone who remained.
The second key factor was Leicester’s decision-makers didn’t panic after relegation. There were concerns that there would be wholesale cuts, but they haven’t gone in that direction. They have retained their operational staff. They have adjusted the finances but still have a healthy budget for promotion.
Enzo Maresca has refreshed Leicester (Michael Regan via Getty Images)
Hay: Farke has been a savvy choice as manager at Leeds. He was a sensible pick based on his track record — and it was high time that Leeds began doing the sensible thing.
But there’s more to it than his history. Farke has the personality and the nerve to cope with a club like Leeds, who eat coaches for breakfast. The dressing room feels nicely disciplined and the players have properly got to grips with the tactical plan. Marcelo Bielsa demonstrated aptly that one thing Leeds need is a coach with very strong authority, on and off the pitch.
Beyond that, the club’s recruitment was good and the budget was there to give them an edge. They invested in players who either had proven ability in the Championship, such as Joel Piroe, or players whose history strongly indicated that they would be assets — Ethan Ampadu and Glen Kamara are two examples.
Tanswell: Winning over the players who did not manage to secure moves away. Southampton spent most of the summer in flux, with the players who were expected to depart either going late in the window or not moving at all. It made it difficult for Martin to form a coherent team.
The club did, however, extract big fees for players such as Romeo Lavia, Tino Livramento and James Ward-Prowse, easing financial fair play (FFP) fears and meaning those of comparable quality — Kyle Walker-Peters, Charly Alcaraz and Kamaldeen Sulemena — could stay. They are enjoying working under Martin, who is more trusting, warm and relaxed than his predecessors, and have spearheaded the resurgence in form.
What have been the biggest challenges?
Tanner: There was also a period at Leicester when there was a concern over whether Maresca’s style of play would be well received by the players and the fans. Did he have the players for it? He doesn’t play with conventional full-backs and Leicester still looked more like a counter-attacking team than one set up to dominate possession, but Maresca made some excellent signings, including Harry Winks and Callum Doyle, that suited his system.
Some fans didn’t take to it immediately as Leicester played out from the back, trying to lure teams out of their defensive formations, but they were soon won over. Victories in 13 out of their first 16 games have certainly dispelled those concerns.
Hay: At boardroom level, Leeds’ critical period was the two-week spell in May and June when 49ers Enterprises talked Andrea Radrizzani into selling the club. It was hard not to think of Leeds at that stage as a car flying down a motorway in neutral gear, without anyone at the wheel.
But for Farke, his month from hell came in August. Players were forcing their way out and Willy Gnonto’s attempts to leave were a serious test of nerve — one Farke handled extremely well. His depleted squad had eight players on the bench away at Birmingham City; two of them goalkeepers. He lost Luis Sinisterra to Bournemouth on the last day of the transfer window, having said at a press conference a few hours earlier he was hopeful the winger would stay.
It felt like promotion might be demanding too much but the passing of the transfer deadline was exactly what Leeds needed. Farke knew what he had, the club could finally see how the land lay and since then, they’ve taken eight wins from 12 games.
Tanswell: Losing four on the spin in September was tumultuous. Southampton’s fragile confidence was reaffirmed. There was an acceptance they were still in transition, unsettled after the summer of upheaval and Martin not having sufficient time to bed in his way of working. But supporters rightly expected a better start, and constantly conceding goals on the transition — contributing to the EFL’s leakiest defence at one point — rapidly dwindled credit in the bank.
Russell Martin has proven himself adaptable (George Wood via Getty Images)
All three clubs appointed new managers before the season started. How much of a factor have those decisions been?
Tanner: Had Leicester gone down a different road, like sticking with Dean Smith or bringing in Scott Parker, I don’t think they would have got the fresh approach they’ve had. I don’t think they would have inspired the fans or the players. The hangover of relegation might have lingered into the start of the season.
There was plenty of work to be done and Maresca wasn’t hanging around when he arrived. He saw this as his big opportunity and he has made an impact on the staff who work down at Seagrave. He is personable and cheerful, and adept at deflecting pressure and negativity, which was a feature of last season under Brendan Rodgers.
Hay: At the end of last season, United had the option of sticking with Sam Allardyce, who had won promotion from the Championship with Bolton Wanderers and West Ham United. But Farke was younger, fresher and, dare you say it, hungrier for the role, with a CV boasting two recent Championship titles. His tactics have been properly tailored to the squad’s strengths and he has put round pegs in round holes, avoiding rash or unproductive experimentation. His temperament seems suited to a club who often exist on the edge of madness. It’s been a credible and popular call.
Tanswell: Martin is an affable figure with players who feel comfortable knocking on his door and having private conversations with him. Since the four straight defeats, Southampton are unbeaten in eight, winning six, with Martin successfully tweaking tactical aspects. Certain nuances, such as Walker-Peters becoming a right-winger in possession as opposed to operating as an inverted full-back, have suited players and showed Martin to be an adaptable coach, though within a general framework.
Where do their weaknesses lie?
Tanner: Leicester attempt to lure players momentarily out of position and then play into the pockets of space their patience creates. If there is no room centrally they will spread the play to their two wingers, who hug the touchline. Leeds probably showed more than Middlesbrough how to frustrate Maresca’s side, as they were content for Leicester to play but then set traps to force turnovers in high areas of the pitch and then broke at pace. Leicester’s back three isn’t the quickest.
Hay: Leeds could be stronger at full-back and the No 10 area but they are not lacking a great deal. The two threats to them would be injuries or January bids that prise key players away from Elland Road. Financially, Leeds do not appear to be under major pressure to sell and Farke will insist that they resist offers. In terms of injuries, Sam Byram at left-back and Joe Rodon at centre-back are some of those who have to stay fit. But without question, Leeds are nicely set up.
Tanswell: Perhaps it is a cliche to assume passing-heavy sides are susceptible to the meat-and-potato aspects of football, but Southampton have struggled against direct, counter-attacking teams. They have conceded a lot of goals (26 in 16 games) and ship them at key moments.
Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich Town are ahead of Leeds and Southampton (Alex Pantling via Getty Images)
Will any of these clubs strengthen significantly in January?
Tanner: Doyle’s injury means Maresca is without a natural fit for the left-back/left centre-back position where the player was so effective, so that could be an area they look to strengthen in. A left-winger and another No 8 could also be on the agenda, with departures expected to free up room in the squad. Leicester have five goalkeepers, four of whom are in the first-team squad, while Patson Daka has played just one minute in the Championship and could move on.
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Like many clubs, Leicester don’t like doing business in January as they don’t see a lot of value in the mid-season market, but a couple of new additions could get them across the line.
Hay: The prospect of Leeds doing a huge amount in the next window isn’t high if key players remain, and it won’t be a surprise if any incomings are sourced from the loan market.
Their attempt to sign Nadiem Amiri from Bayer Leverkusen in August indicated Farke’s interest in having more to pick from in attacking midfield, and that area is probably still on his mind. There is also a question of whether Junior Firpo is sufficient cover for Byram at left-back.
But, as a whole, Leeds are not far from having two options for every position. They have to strike the balance between making sure they have all the resources they need and avoiding signings who have little or no chance of actually getting on the pitch. This isn’t an easy line-up to break into.
Tanswell: Southampton have to be mindful of FFP, having been on the edge of regulations in the summer. They were still paying for players brought in over recent years — because of amortisation, where fees are spread over the length of a player’s contract — as well as repaying the MSD Capital loan taken out during the Covid-19 pandemic, and dealing with the financial impact of relegation.
However, the club do want to strengthen in January and will be flexible in giving Martin the assets needed.
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(Top photos: Getty Images)
