If the bookies are to be believed, there is perhaps a 50 percent chance of Graham Potter succeeding Roberto De Zerbi as Brighton manager.
A recent WAB poll concluded that nearly 70 percent of Albion fans are against Potter returning to the Amex. The reasons not to bring him back to the club have been clearly laid out.
But what about the counter argument? Here instead is the view of one of those 30 percent of supporters who said they would not be against Potter being reappointed by the Seagulls.
Potter’s departure last time
The previous article on Potter leaving for Chelsea summed up the main reason why most fans do not want Potter to return – the manner of his departure.
“Tony Bloom had stuck with Glow Up through two-and-a-half years of questionable results and some ghastly performances, especially in front of goal,” it said.
“Potter repaid that faith by walking out after 13 good games at the first sign of Chelsea throwing an admittedly ridiculous amount of cash at him. Not only that, but Potter took his entire coaching team with him. Brighton were ransacked.”
It is above all, my take on this narrative that leads me to be in the 30 percent.
Chelsea – not just any job but a unique opportunity
The narrative around Potter’s disloyalty to Brighton feels unfair. There is a coherent argument that the Chelsea job may have been the only option that would have tempted Potter away from Brighton in 2022.
What evidence do we have for this? Firstly, Chelsea was far from the first reported option that Potter had during his time at Brighton. For example, Potter was strongly linked with Spurs in 2021.
Since leaving Chelsea, he has not been short of options either. Potter has apparently turned down Ajax, Southampton and Leicester.
All told therefore, I think the evidence indicates he considers every offer carefully. He only picks the one he feels is the right move at the right time.
It gives me confidence that if reappointed by Brighton, Potter would not jump ship at the first available opportunity of something better.
Chelsea also offered a geographical advantage to Potter. Adam Lallana gave up the option to continue as a Brighton player due to being conflicted about spending so much time away from his family home in Bournemouth.
“I’ve been speaking to my family throughout the year and the biggest influence on my decision was that my kids needed me,” Lallana said when announcing he would be turning down a new contract with the Albion.
The world of football expects players and managers to move across the country to whichever club wants them, regardless of the consequences on their personal lives.
Chelsea represented a unique opportunity not just for Potter, but equally for his coaching team. With their training ground in Cobham, this was one of the few ‘big club’ jobs they could all take without needing to relocate or leave their families.
New Blues owner Todd Boehly also promised the appointment was the start of a long-term project he was determined to stick with, backed up by the five-year contracts offered to Potter and his team.
Indeed, Boehly’s track record with the LA Dodgers baseball team gave credibility to the notion he is a man of patience who would stand by Potter.
Current Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been in place since 2015 and backed by significant but sensible, measured investment.
It has of course since become clear that Boehly’s approach at the Dodgers is a a complete contradiction to his Chelsea tenure so far.
Potter taking his staff to Stamford Bridge – including Bruno and Roberts
Most Brighton fans understood and accepted Potter taking Kyle Macaulay, Bjorn Hamberg and Billy Reid with him to Chelsea. All three had been with Potter at Ostersunds and Swansea City before coming to Brighton.
However, the additional departures of long-term Albion staffers Bruno and goalkeeper coach Ben Roberts was considered particularly treacherous.
Without knowing how the chronology of the departures went, I think a fair assumption would be that Brighton were in fact supportive of Bruno and Roberts going to Stamford Bridge.
The Albion quickly landed the out-of-work Roberto De Zerbi, their oft-quoted succession and replacement planning running more smoothly than it has done so far in attempting to replace the Italian.
With the war in Ukraine having caused the sudden departure of De Zerbi and his coaching team from Shakhtar Donetsk, it meant an entire support staff were also available to join Brighton.
The Albion would have known De Zerbi was keen to bring his full team with him, including long-standing goalkeeper coach Ricard Segarra.
Potter may well have cleared the departure of Bruno and Roberts with Brighton. An outcome which suited all parties as it pushed the compensation payment from Chelsea over £21 million and left the way for De Zerbi to arrive with his entourage.
The relationship between Bloom and Potter
Tony Bloom indicated at the time of Potter’s departure that their relationship remained strong, saying: “I am very disappointed that Graham will be leaving us. He has done exceptionally well over the past three-and-a-bit seasons, he is an exceptional head coach and an exceptional person.”
“He will be hugely missed at our football club. He leaves an excellent legacy for his successor with the club in its highest ever position, and on the back of leading us to our highest finish in the club’s history last season.”
“I would like to thank Graham, Billy, Bjorn, Bruno, Ben and Kyle for their work here, and wish them all the very best for the future.”
A nice, easy life
Another reason for the 70 percent being against Potter are his comments about both Brighton fans and the club itself during his time at the Amex and following his departure.
“If I wanted a nice, easy life, I’d have stayed at Brighton,” caused particular irritation. Yes, arguably an unwise comment.
Like his oft-quoted response to being booed after a 0-0 with Leeds United: “They’re entitled to their opinion. I disagree with them completely. We’re sitting 8th in the league. Maybe I need a history lesson of this football club.”
However, in the context of these being instant responses to questions from a manager under pressure, they do not represent a significant problem in the opinion of this correspondent.
Then there is the Caicedo issue. After stating whilst Brighton manager that Caicedo was worth £100 million, four months later Chelsea launched a January bid at £55 million.
The way that Chelsea operates, it appears hard to hold this offer at the door of Potter. Instead, it should be a question for Paul Winstanley, who as an ex-Albion head of recruitment must have known it was always going to be turned down.
In truth, it smacks of simplistic first level negotiation. Chelsea start at £55 million when Brighton want £100 million. Hey presto, split the difference and you end up at the £75 million the Blues were seemingly willing to pay at the time.
Should Brighton re-appoint Graham Potter?
There are three issues for Brighton to consider if they are to reappoint Potter as head coach:
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A) The manner of his departure
B) Footballing reasons
C) Whether it will work with the fanbase
Having argued that there should be no issue with A), that leaves questions B) and C) to ponder – presuming of course Potter would even be happy to return.
The jury is still out on this one. Brighton claim to have a frequently changing database on the best managers in the world suited to be in charge at the Amex, ready and waiting to be used the minute a new appointment is required. Is Potter really the best available?
We already know that Bloom and the Albion place huge stuck on expected goals being a better predictor of future performances than actual results.
It is why Potter was under no pressure during long winless spells in his previous time in charge. It also led to the surprise sacking of Mel Phillips from Brighton Women in February.
xG will no doubt feature highly in the Albion’s assessment of their next manager. And it is here that judging Potter’s ability becomes complicated.
Potter and xG
On any assessment, Potter’s time at Ostersunds in Sweden must be viewed positively. He delivered good football and results to catch the eye of clubs back in England and mark himself out as a manager with a big future.
It is easy to reach two contrasting conclusions about his career though since leaving Ostersunds. General performances supported by xG through his spells at Swansea and Brighton earned him the chance to manager Chelsea. You can even argue his seven months at Stamford Bridge were reasonable based on those metrics.
On that basis, Potter being reappointed as Albion head coach makes sense. And yet judged on results, his year at Swansea and first two seasons at Brighton are average rather than convincing. His time at Chelsea meanwhile a negative.
For perhaps as long as three years, Potter’s xG performance outshone results. Even the biggest proponent of xG would have to argue that is an unusually long time.
Is Potter’x xG not matching results continual bad luck over a 36 months period? Or instead an issue with the way his teams train and operate, alongside an apparent lack of confidence in front of goal?
The transformation of Solly March into a regular goal scorer under De Zerbi from someone who scored three times in 81 appearances playing for Potter is a case in point.
WAB has equally and validly questions how well Potterball works with wingers, a paricular issue with this current Brighton squad: “Its most dangerous attackers being fast wide players like Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March, Simon Adingra, Valentin Barco and Pervis Estupinan.”
Watching his brief substitute cameos, the potential of Mitoma at the start of the 2022-23 season looked clear. And yet as WAB point out, Mitoma did not make a single Premier League start under Potter.
That, however was a period of just six games before Potter left for Chelsea when Brighton were fourth in the table. Mitoma’s lack of action was arguably more to do with a settled team and both Leandro Trossard and March playing well than Potter not realising what a diamond he had in Mitoma.
A more valid challenge is the perplexing winless periods through the spring of 2022 and the start of the 2020-21 campaign when Pascal Gross was often consigned to the Brighton bench.
There are two questions I would want Potter to convincingly answer if I were Bloom to demonstrate the appointment makes footballing sense.
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1) With many Premier League clubs now beginning to pick up on the ideas of DeZerbiBall, how does Potter set up this Brighton team to build on the legacy of his predecessor?
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2) What would Potter do differently to address the lack of goals which have proven a major problem in his first two seasons at Brighton and his time at Chelsea?
Potter and the Brighton fanbase
Presuming he can convincingly answer both of those, there is still the issue of how the Brighton fanbase will respond to a Potter return.
The negative views held by the majority of Albion fans are evidenced in both the WAB survey and a recent poll on North Stand Chat.
It will conceivably make for a toxic atmosphere and negatively impact on both the willingness of Potter to consider a return and what happens when Brighton go through a bad run.
Therefore, the plea of this correspondent is that if Potter is reappointed, the majority treat his second spell with a clean slate and the same patience and understanding they would a completely new manager.
Only then will we know if Potter can be a success.
Peter Finn
