Liverpool will have decisions to make over their contract expirees soon and Cole Palmer is one such solution. Arsenal’s title challenge is ‘officially dead’.
Send your thoughts to theeditor@football365.com. And read the Ten Hag Mailbox if you so wish.
The Conspiracy
Dear Editor,
Surprised to learn about the ironclad Pro-City Conspiracy that the governing body have apparently put in place. Is that the same governing body which has also charged City with 115+ instances of rule breaking and is trying to impose the most significant punishment in the history of the English game?
People have lost the run of themselves. Their heads have fallen off and are rolling around on the floor. Embarrassing to see what has become of the football watching public.
Thanks and have a good one,
Alex
Liverpool transition
The summer of 2023 was supposed to be Liverpool’s great transition. We lost Jenderson, Milner, Thiago and Fabinho in midfield as well as Firmino up top, and everyone expected the club to replace these ageing but still starting stars with ready-made replacements. Obviously, the year before had been about the long flirtation with Bellingham, who unsurprisingly chose Madrid’s millions over Liverpool’s less generous offer. In response we brought in Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Gravenberch and Endo.
What is largely forgotten is that despite Jordan and Fab having spent a full season trundling around a pitch made of treacle as most of the opposing prem midfields ran rings around them, we were in fact planning on continuing the experiment of seeing how slow a midfield we could field with a straight face: Too Slow – Bad Slow – Embarrassingly Slow – Shameful Slow – Just Plain Sad Slow. It would have been entertaining (for opposition fans) to have seen this play out, but thankfully Saudi Arabia flew to our rescue and wafted a camel sized wad of cash in front of these professionals faces and they departed for the desert.
Our recruitment did what it invariably does and replaced these with very good players. Thankfully the hit rate of the complex mathematical model driven recruitment approach is extremely good, particularly compared to the prem average. The result being we were fortunate to upgrade and renew our midfield for relatively little outlay whilst simultaneously slashing our wage bill. The moral of this story was that confronting the problem and backing our recruitment team was probably preferable to waiting to see how bad things got before we were forced into emergency change.
Next it will be the summer 2025 and we have arguably an even bigger job on our hands. Salah, Trent and VVD all have expiring contracts. Unlike the perma-crocked Thiago, old father time Milner and leaden-footed Fab and Jendo, these 3 are probably our best 3 players. Yet still there are complex arguments for retaining or bidding them farewell. VVD and Salah are still wonderful players who would walk into almost any team on the planet, yet these are not 30 yr olds who could expect another 2-3 seasons of high-quality football, they will be 33 and 34 when next season kicks off. The fall can be steep even for sensational players who keep themselves in great shape. It might also be slight, but when they get to this age you have to recruit for the transition even if they are still there, and that can be hard when you can’t guarantee a starting spot. A 12 or even 24 month extension would be ideal, but is unlikely. With Salah earning £350,000 and VVD on £250,000, Liverpool simply can’t afford to keep paying them such large sums for 3 or more years whilst crossing their fingers that they buck the popular trend and maintain form and fitness into their mid to late 30’s.
It’s frustrating we work within our means rather than just play silly buggers with the finances and fudge the accounts where and when needed, but I suppose we have a sort of moral high horse to look down upon the Newcastle’s and Chelsea’s with, even if it’s all kind of meaningless considering our big club advantage.
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As for replacing them, VVD arguably has a replacement already in the squad. Jarrel Quansah will not be VVD, but no one will be. We are going to have to live with the reality that he is largely irreplaceable. What we can replace him with is a very good defender who will hopefully progress to being world class. We should also recruit another young, talented CB and let them fight out being Konate’s partner.
Salah is also irreplaceable, but unlike VVD we don’t have any replacement in the squad. We will already be trawling the market for a left footed, high output, world class attacking winger/forward, preferably already having experience at the highest level. Not many of those. In my eyes 2 players stand out. The first is Saka. He is tailor made to replace Salah, they even sound the same. The problem – he is absolutely not leaving his boyhood club who are also competing for all the trophies to come and play for us.
The other is Cole Palmer. Now, he obviously has a very different profile as a player. He’s certainly not a winger, but he is left footed and plays predominantly from the right. He’s also one of the few players on the planet that can match Salah in terms of output, scoring and assisting with incredible regularity. The problem is Chelsea not wanting to lose their best player who has a looooong contract. However, their business model only works by selling some of the amassed talent as the seasons go by. Ideally, they would sell the cast offs to mid table prem sides for decent money to offset the huge amortisation costs of their incomprehensible transfer splurge. Chelsea will have somewhere in the region of £150m already spent every season for certainly the next 5 years and probably the next 8. And that’s before they buy anyone else in the intervening period. That needs managing. You can’t sell hotels every year.
Mainly though, we will rely on Cole Palmer angling for the move. There’s no guarantee that will happen. Even if it does, Chelsea, not wanting to lose their best player, will try and pull Liverpool’s pants down. They’ll quote £150-200m at least. Who knows what Liverpool will be willing to pay, certainly not that. We’ve offered £111m for Caicedo so it’s not against our religion to throw 9 figures at targets, but let’s face it, it’s not exactly our MO.
If ever we were going to break with convention though, this is the time to do it. He is English, young and fills an incredibly difficult position. Left footed, goal merchants are unicorns and unicorns are expensive.
For Trent, the problems are different and more difficult. Obviously, we would prefer he stayed. He’s 26, a scouser and a world class talent. He’s on a lot of money and we can afford to offer more, even something akin to Salah. Unfortunately, its not really in our hands. Trent seems like he fancies the sun and glamour of Madrid. It happens. Again, there is a player within the squad who could nicely take his place. Bradley is a real talent. Again, it doesn’t mean he will be good enough and that everything will be seamless, but at least there is a young, hungry player who looks genuine quality and Trent leaving opens a place for him to shine. In an ideal world it works out great. In our world we just have to wait and see.
I don’t begrudge Trent the move, though it would have been nice to have a transfer fee as he’s leaving as he approaches his prime, but it is what it is. A word of warning though, Trent has mentioned the Ballon D’or, and the last English player to win it found leaving Liverpool in his prime to go for tuppence to Madrid did not work out well. He never got the chance to come back, despite desperately wanting it. Now he cries when he sees the Kop.
Ed Ern
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It’s a wrap!
Dear 365,
Arsenal’s Fake title dreams will have to wait yet another year. Just to keep track, it’s now been 18 years since I wrote in to 365 after the CL Final loss, stating that it could be decades before we see another Arsenal League title. It was derided as hysteria and heresy back then, but the 20-year barren spell is to become 21.
Arteta is a good manager doing a good job, but I said this two seasons ago after the epic title bottle job (8 point lead was it) and it wasn’t some Oracle-esque statement: Arteta is failing at the attacking side of the game and this season is showing up the worst of Arteta’s attacking shortcomings, already. There are three main issues I can see quite clearly, because the defensive side of Arsenal’s game is excellent:
* Lack of attacking courage. We saw Arsenal clam up when reduced to 10 at home to Brighton. Points dropped. Happened again away at Bournemouth. Big teams do not behave like this. At Citeh it was more forgivable but still ridiculous for Arsenal to have zero attacking moves for 45 minutes – you need to pose a threat on the break, surely. But there wasn’t, which explains why Ruben Dias spent 45 minutes playing an Bergkamp role, hovering outside the Arsenal penalty area: he knew there was zero threat in behind.
And now the Liverpool match, yet again Arteta clearly instructing his team to sit back and be conservative with a slender lead. Such curious management when you’re missing your best defender who has the pace and composure (Saliba) and when Arsenal had smothered Liverpool for the opening 45. Arsenal absolutely could and should have gone for the third, and could have sat back thereafter. Instead, Salah predictably punished naive Arsenal defenders. Oddly, as soon as they conceded, Arsenal suddenly proved they had the ability to go attack Liverpool.
* Poor attacking squad planning. Stevie Wonder can see this one chaps: Arsenal’s entire attacking strategy relies on two players being present. If either is out, Arsenal can’t function. No Odegaard = no attacking creativity. No Saka = no goal threat.
After season one’s bottle-job, Arteta should have immediately addressed the lack of reliable striker. He did not, and it cost Arsenal the following season. This season, we are seeing Arsenal really struggle to create because without Odegaard, there’s practically nothing. Trossard is very good but isn’t as quick-witted. Citeh regularly play without KDB and it’s hardly noticeable these days. If Haaland is missing, Citeh still find methods to create and win. Gvardiol is more clinical than every Arsenal attacker not called Bukayo Saka.
* Deadwood. Easy one this. Arteta spent £65m on Havertz, who is on a reported £200k a week. And £50m on Fake Brazilian Steve Bull, Jesus. You cannot rely on either of these players to provide anything in big games. Havertz has zero goals or assists in two years of games v Citeh and Liverpool. He even struggles against the weaker former “Big” teams like ManYoo and Spurs. It’s pathetic. If you wanted to spend £65m on someone to score goals at home to Leicester, you could have got Michaïl Antonio for 20% of the cost FFS. If Saudi football is insane enough to pay actual millions for Jesus, he should be shipped off ASAP. I recall a few Gooners calling this guy “world class”. Pep is still giggling at that fraudulent transaction FYI
Ultimately, we are in a copy-paste scenario from last season after Arsenal drew 2-2 at home to 10-man Fulham. Arsenal’s title challenge is officially Dead. Arsenal will not win the title this season. This season was a golden opportunity with Citeh missing their most important player for the entire season (Rodri, making a mockery of the Arsenal annual “injury” excuse – oh and then there’s KDB. Oh and there’s Grealish. Oh and there’s Doku too. Ah yes then Oscar Bobb. Yet Citeh are top, sailing along). Arteta and Edu knew what needed to be done in summer, and proceeded to do sod all.
Worse is still to come, as I can definitely see Newcastle saving Howe’s bacon with a rousing home win at St James. See you all next season, for Season 21 of the most Ridiculous show on earth, the “Will Arteta ever get over the line” show.
Stewie Griffin (Arteta is never getting them over the line. New contract was pointless. Inept Chelsea still managed a top attacking signing in Palmer, Newcastle managed it with £60m Isak, Liverpool did it with Salah, Pep with Haaland, Villa have Watkins and Duran FFS – Arteta the odd one out. He’s not made a single top attacking goalscorer signing in his entire time at Arsenal. Not one. And yes, he’s got less trophies than ETH, which is farcical and unacceptable)
Arsenal aren’t being targeted.
The referees made clear what the rules are and Arsenal simply haven’t been very good at cottoning on.
Our luck with injuries though is a problem, but you have to make the best of it and given the sheer number of defenders out, and the fact Kwior had to come in, I’ll take 2-2.
I wish Liverpool all the best, but I predicted another City cakewalk at the start of the season and I see no reason to change my mind.
Graham Simons, Gooner, Norf London
Dear Ed
All I want to say is David Raya obviously ate a jam sandwich yesterday. Look in the 46th minute, he holds onto the ball from 45:31 to 45:51. What happened to the 6 second rule. Absurd how long he’s allowed to let the ball stick to his hands.
Good performance though, you just wonder whether City would have put Arsenal to the sword with that defence.
Best,
Wik, Pretoria (we were happy to draw at The Emirates), LFC
Winners and Losers: Forest edition
W&L seem rather light today, presumably due to the distraction of Ten Hag receiving a lottery sized payout, so I thought i’d chip in but only for my team, Forest:
Winners
Forest’s defence
2nd best defensive record in the league, only bettered by Liverpool. The back 5 at Forest were signed for a total (according to TransferMarkt) of €34.3 mil, less than half of one Van Dijk.
Nikola Milenkovic
The best signing of the season. Presumably whoever wrote this just forgot about him? Clearly a better signing that Archie (4 prem games and no starts) Gray or Iliman (2 goals, no assist) Ndiaye. A steal of a signing who bigger clubs should have been all over.
Nuno
Many Forest fans, including myself, were not convinced by him but fair play, he’s doing an incredible job. He doesn’t have that connection with fans that Steve Cooper did, and hearing Forest fans singing Cooper’s name on Friday would have been painful for some Managers but Nuno has his own, completely different approach and it is clearly working.
Forest away from home
2022/2023 – 1 win, 8 points from 19 games. 0.42 PPG
2023/2024 – 4 wins, with 16 points from 19 games. 0.84 PPG
2024/2025 – 3 wins so far, with 11 points from 5 games. 2.2PG
Early days and a short sample size that includes two promoted teams but also games at Liverpool, Chelsea and Brighton. What a transformation.
Forest’s Summer transfer business
A lot has been made of Forest’s spending since being promoted, the overhaul was necessary but at times, there didn’t quite seem to be a strategy beyond sign who we can. This Summer was different, less of an overhaul but strengthening in key areas and building the depth. The aforementioned Milenkovic and Morena on loan have formed 2/5ths of the stingy defence. The likes of Morato, Silva and Sosa have added depth and different options from the bench. Then Anderson, the disappointed reaction by Newcastle fans when he was sold was promising and he’s been brilliant. Being able to send Vladhodimos in the opposite direction to make a net spend of around 15mil on Anderson was amazing, i’d love to know who did the negotiating for Newcastle on that one?
Losers
Those who predicted this would be the year Forest would go down. There was many, include a few of you from F365, who had Forest as one of the main relegation contenders alongside the 3 promoted teams. It’s not a problem, just put together an A4 letter sized apology and admission of stupidity and all will be forgiven.
James
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Ange management
Morning all
I think Ange is likely to get himself fired. It’s a shame, it carries on making Spurs the joke and will lead to articles about an historically soft DNA / profoundly unserious football. Many fans don’t want to start again. But when it comes, he’ll deserve it. So lets get into it –
Who makes James Maddison captain? What in the history of the player makes that the right call…
I don’t understand his strategy in the midfield. This nonsense has been going on for a year now. When Spurs had that astonishing run at the start of last year, they played two holding midfielders. It contributed to their success. Ange seems intent on playing one. It doesn’t work. He regularly needs to change it mid game. Sarr is becoming last year’s Hojberg. It needed changing at half time against West Ham but he went with the same strategy against Palace. Madness
Who brings Werner on? Who does that!? HIS TEAMMATES WON’T PASS HIM THE BALL!! The poor fella is so bereft of form and confidence I don’t think he could impact a league one game.
This week is likely to go very badly with City and Villa to come. That’s a Villa side that Spurs have twice beaten 4 – 0 away firstly under Gerrard and then Emery. We look a million miles away from Villa in a way that is so preventable it keeps me awake at night. The stubborn bugger is running out of rope.
Cheers
Andrew
Villa still jammy?
Dear Jeff G, who asks how failure to have Hawkeye turned on constitutes referee incompetence; please choose your favourite from A) it is the referee’s job to ensure before the game that the technology and equipment he has at his disposal is in working order? Or B) I was using the term ‘referees’ to mean the wider body of officials who oversee the game. As for having ‘never seen a ref turn Hawkeye on’, have you ever seen a ref paint the lines on the pitch before the game? No? Or a lino sew their own flag? Thought not.
Just speculating, but maybe Villa might’ve needed the Grealish cash given that the sudden shortfall in TV money, sponsorship etc and had a premier league wage bill to sustain, and thus been forced to sell even if no one met the release. Not to mention that any contract worth its salt would’ve had a reduction in the release clause had Villa gone down. Don’t suppose you’ve got a copy to hand have you?
Dear Iain, please see the above and the leading image in the mailbox article that your response was published in; the ball is demonstrably over the line.
And as for other arguments akin to ‘we should’ve had a pen in the game before’, the reason this incident is different is because it’s 100% objective, which is why the goal line tech causes no controversy (when it’s turned on) and isn’t really part of the wider VAR conversation. It just works.
Interested to know if any Villains thought they got a bit lucky this weekend as well? That corner traveled an awful long way high up in the air before Bailey handled it. And would you have wanted the other penalty shout if it had been at the other end?
Elliot
Foreign refs
The Premier League is apparently the bestest in the world, and it is currently being made to look an absolute joke week in week out by having the most dog turd officiating in the world. You might think this is the griping of a bitter Arsenal fan, and you’re probably correct, but I think if we want people to continue to respect our league, we need to do away with PGMOL and get in the best refs from around the world. Referees who aren’t beholden to the whims of unaccountable people. Referees who aren’t being remunerated to the tunes of thousands by the Saudi league every season.
Every club feels persecuted at some point or other, so I am not going to say Arsenal suffer any more than any other club. But to suffer due to incompetence rather than malice is unacceptable. They are not fit for purpose. VAR is not fit for purpose. The lack of any accountability or repercussions for people who fail the sport and the rules is unacceptable. I can imagine many clubs and their owners will push for this. They are investing hundreds of millions into their clubs, and their value is undermined when the people with the simplest job, implementing the rules, repeatedly fail. To be honest, maybe the Premier League bubble needs to burst. Maybe if people start turning off or watching other leagues, there will be some sort of reaction, but I won’t hold my breath.
Let’s just look forward to the 5th City league win in a row. We’re a farmers league now because our FA, referees and everyone else is scared of a petro-state. Shameful.
John Matrix AFC
Damola asks how premier league refs are appraised and it’s really simple; in hindsight can the decision be justified in isolation ? Yes or no. Context only matters if it justifies the decision. Was Trossard’s second yellow justified? Yes, letter of the law, no option but to send him off. Was Diaz escaping a yellow for kicking the ball away justified? Yes, Arsenal weren’t ready to take the free kick so he didn’t delay any restart. In isolation you can say that both decisions were correct and move on to the next game. It’s only when you look at both decisions together that things don’t add up. Letter of the law for one and not the other. The same extenuating circumstances in both but only applied to one because City also weren’t set up for their free kick in the <1 second before Trossard kicked the ball away. An individual ref can explain away each one and pass their appraisal but the PGMOL can’t explain both without admitting that they don’t apply the laws fairly.
The Premier League doesn’t have a problem in understanding the rules, it has a problem in understanding why the rules exist. It makes a mockery of every single game in a season if the rules aren’t applied evenly and with fairness as the primary concern. How many players have been booked or sent off this season for delay of game? That’s the important question that needs to be asked. Not was Rice’s decision correct. Not was Trossard’s decision correct. Does the Premier League apply the rules fairly and consistently? Instead we’ve arrived at the point where incorrect decisions won’t be corrected, not because we’ve missed it but because the most important thing about a game of football is that we don’t overrule referees. How backwards is that? It’s like the whole sport exists to serve the officials and not the players, clubs and fans. Fairness is not a concern for the powers that be.
When the FA lost their case against Arteta after last year’s Newcastle game it should have been a tide shift. Arteta was able to prove that other managers had said exactly the same things that he said and weren’t charged to which the FA attempted to argue that they held Arteta to a higher standard. You can dress this up however you want but that argument was an admission of bias at the very least. It doesn’t matter if you’re an Arsenal fan or not, the FA admitted that different standards are applied to different teams and none of you seem to be able to see past your own injustices to see that the whole system is broken. A problem of bias, no doubt against many teams, that was brought into the light and roundly shepherded back into the basement again.
The problem won’t get fixed until everyone behaves like adults and admits that there are fundamental issues. On MOTD2 Stephen Warnock said about the Van Dijk Havertz incident that Van Dijk didn’t even kick out. Now you can watch it and see that not only did Van Dijk actually kick out, he kicked out twice. It’s not an opinion, it’s a matter of fact, it happened and we can’t have an honest discussion about it if one party says it didn’t. The machine told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. We’re so far away from fixing officiating I don’t even know if it can be saved, the rot is too deep.
SC, Belfast (Replace Arsenal for your team and whatever nonsense you’ve had to put up with)
We’ve finally jumped the shark with VAR.
I’ve written in several times (to the astonishment of no one) how my Everton have been jobbed repeatedly by VAR. Sure, we’ve had some good VAR decisions, but the majority have been awful. But I’ve always concluded my rants with “no one cares because it’s Everton,” and “it only matters when it happens to your club.” Both points no one would argue with.
Now were not only seeing continued discussion about the farce that is VAR and the officiating, not only behind it, but on the pitch as well…BUT…now we’re finally seeing sensible readers complain about it when it’s not their club but someone else’s, and EVEN IF that “someone else’s club” is a bitter rival.
When I see an Arsenal supporter complain about how United and Spurs have been treated by VAR…pigs flying everywhere.
Damola in Bremen also mentioned foreign referees. Yes please.
TX Bill (too lazy for brackets today) EFC
FAO: Manc in SA
I’m not a huge NFL fan but I’d say have a look at the Houston Texans.
Great young quarterback. Great young coach. Very good players at the skill positions and other than against the Minnesota Vikings, a solid defense.
An up-and-coming team and you’ll have no accusations of being a bandwagon fan.
TX Bill (what a great goal by Beto…feel good story) EFC
