Premier League title race is exciting – but the Championship’s three-way fight is next level

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Is this the best title race for years?

Three teams fighting it out for the title — each match fraught with tension. No, we’re not talking about the Premier League, this is the Championship promotion battle, where full-throttle football is the order of the day. While Manchester City’s 0-0 draw with Arsenal bored some to tears/was a fascinating tactical battle, Leeds United, Ipswich Town and Leicester City are serving up a treat for the neutrals with each round of fixtures.

There is a slim chance of automatic promotion for Southampton, too, and everything points towards a record-breaking campaign with six, crucially seven for Leicester, games to go.

Leicester looked like they had it wrapped up at the halfway point, only to slip and be reined in by Leeds and Ipswich, who are both in relentless form. Southampton, in the mix for so long, now look resigned to the play-offs after a costly blip at the end of a 25-match unbeaten run. Nine points adrift of Leicester in third and with seemingly too much ground to make up even with two games in hand, the fact they could still hit 90 points and only secure fourth underlines the competitiveness of this Championship season.

Are we getting carried away to suggest this is the best second-tier campaign for a while? No. Are the games more entertaining than usual? Yes, if the last-gasp winners are anything to go by, and a breathtaking Easter weekend was the perfect example. On Good Friday, Leicester lost 1-0 away to Bristol City, Ipswich won 1-0 at Blackburn Rovers, and Leeds needed an 85th-minute equaliser from Mateo Joseph to rescue a point at Watford. But that was just the appetiser to the carnage of Easter Monday.

Leicester scored three goals after going behind at home to Norwich City in the lunchtime kick-off before Ipswich won a 3-2 thriller against Southampton in the 97th minute thanks to a Jeremy Sarmiento poke into the corner that sent Portman Road potty. Leeds’ 88th and 97th-minute goals against Hull secured three points to keep them second in the table. Bedlam ensued at Elland Road, too.

Crysencio Summerville’s late goal sparked wild scenes at Elland Road on Easter Monday (Ed Sykes/Getty Images)

Leeds and Ipswich snatching victory late on illustrates that while the top sides have been dominant in getting results, it has not been plain sailing. The top three have won more points from losing positions than any other top three since 2018.

If all three teams carry on at this rate, we will likely see the highest-ever points tally by a third-placed side, with Sunderland’s 90-point haul in 1998 the previous best. With none of the top three needing to play each other in the run-in, three points for Ipswich, four for Leeds and five for Leicester to go beyond 90 points is not a big ask.

It might be fair to feel concerned about three teams running away with things with such a big gap (17 points) to West Bromwich Albion in fifth, but on the whole, the Championship has been pretty tight — if in clusters — throughout the table. Six teams are fighting it out for the play-off spots in fifth and sixth (West Brom, Norwich, Coventry City, Preston North End, Middlesbrough and Hull), while nine are still battling relegation, with only a seven-point gap between 23rd and 16th.

This has been an unusually goal-laden season throughout the division, with goals-per-game figures suggesting this could be the highest-scoring campaign since 2019. Though it is not as high as the Premier League’s crazy scoring year in 2023-24, unless the final portion bucks the trend, the Championship is well on course to surpass the 1,472 goals (excluding play-off games) of 2018-19. To compare the title races in the Premier League and Championship in terms of goals scored across the fixtures between the three teams in each title race, 11 goals came from the six fixtures involving Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, with 20 coming in the meetings of Leicester, Leeds and Ipswich.

Of the three in the running for the title, Ipswich are the entertainers, with the most goals scored in the division (84) and most conceded in the top three (51). Winning games late on has become a habit to ensure they stay in the fight for back-to-back promotions — a remarkable effort after a 101-goal, 98-point season to get out of League One in 2022-23. Of all the goals Ipswich have scored this season, 30 per cent have come in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich continue to snatch late wins (Stephen Pond/Getty Images)

Leicester lead the league for most goals scored in the second half of games, with 46 of Enzo Maresca’s side’s 77 coming after the interval, according to data from Opta. Leeds are well balanced in when they score their goals, with Daniel Farke’s team scoring 37 in the second half and 38 in the first period, but neither side scores as many as late as Ipswich (42 scored in either half but 25 of those coming after 76 minutes).

Compared to previous Championship seasons from 2018, this season has seen more goals scored after 85 minutes by the top three sides than in any other season. Across the league as a whole, we may see the record for late goals broken, too, with 176 goals coming after 85 minutes this season (the record is 182 goals in 2019-20).

And for the top three and the Championship as a whole, late goals have often been winning goals rather than growing a team’s lead. With the remaining games still to be played, 52 goals scored after 85 minutes have been match winners, with the previous record at 54 goals in 2020-21.

Which of Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds will win automatic promotion is anyone’s guess, but the evidence from the season shows not to expect it to be resolved any earlier than the 85th minute on the final day. There will be drama.

(Top photos: Getty Images)