Written by Matt Stevenson
Here is the xG from the Man C game. We started brightly with 2 chances in the first minute – the first through Semenyo (1 in 7) and then Kluivert (3 in 10) but Ederson made a double save. But 7 minutes later we were 1-0 up, Kerkez finding Semenyo (who stopped the ball, swivelled and put it into the bottom right corner (1 in 3). That was largely our attacking threat in the first hald although Man C were offering little, the best attempt being a 1 in 11 chance from Silva that was brilliantly blocked by Kerkez. The xG at half time was AFCB 0.81 Man C 0.18. The second half started with a big chance for AFCB, Semenyo ran through the Man C defence, but a slightly heavy touch meant Evanilson took the shot (1 in 10) which Ederson saved well. The visitors then had two quick chances, Haaland missing the target with a header (1 in 7) and Foden shooting wide (1 in 4). The game settled down until Bournemouth doubled the lead. Semenyo played in Kerkez who crossed into the area and at full stretch Evanilson diverted it past Ederson (38%). Three minutes later it was almost game over when Tavernier’s shot (1 in 16) hit the inside of the post and bounced out to an onrushing Smith, who with a gaping goal put it over (3 in 5). Man C were creating minor chances and Haaland had a shot from close range saved by Travers (1 in 6) and in the 81st minute it was 2-1, Gundogan crossing for Gvardiol to head in well (1 in 16) although Bournemouth had a shot from Brooks that went wide (1 in 10) in between. From that moment on the xG was all Man C, although AFCB had clear breaks where no shot was taken as the defence got back, in particular there was one opportunity for Unal which Walker got back to cover. In the dying minutes, Haaland had a double chance, both within the six-yard box. The first chance (1 in 5) was kept out by Travers and the rebound hit the post (2 in 5). That was it, and AFCB had won. The final xG was AFCB 2.04 Man C 1.56, although understat had it closer with AFCB 2.46 and Man C 2.35.
Man of the match against Manchester City
Semenyo
Kerkez
Evanilson
Senesi
Smith
Cook
Tavernier
Travers
Kluivert
Christie
Zabarnyi
All of them
There were 3 changes to the team who drew at Villa. Smith replaced Araujo, Evanilson came back with Unal dropping out, and Tavernier replaced the injured Ouatarra. Semenyo (24) again started on the left and Tavernier (16) on the right, with Kluivert (19) in the CAM role. The first change came in the 66th minute, with AFCB 2-0 up, with Adams (12) replacing Christie (10), and sitting in front of the back 4. Whilst this could be seen as defensive, the next subs weren’t with Brooks (7) replacing Kluivert with Brooks playing on the right and Tavernier moving into CAM. In the 90th minute, Huijsen (2) replaced Tavernier as we bolstered the defence. Huijsen’s average position shows the pressure we were under, although Man City had multiple corners in the 90th minute.
Senesi attempted the most passes with 57, Semenyo attempted the most in the opposition’s half (28) and Kluivert attempted the most in the final third with 18. We averaged 84% pass completion. Of the starting 11, Kerkez, Kluivert, Smith and Zabarnyi completed the highest percentage of passes, with 90% or better. Kerkez had a 97% success rate (29 from 30).
AFCB players were tackled 18 times with Cook, Tavernier and Unal being tackled 3 times each.
AFCB attempted 12 crosses, being successful with 3 (from Kerkez, Smith and Tavernier).
AFCB created 10 chances (4 big). Man C created 13 chances, 1 big. Semenyo created 3 chances and Kerkez 2, both big.
We had 12 attempts (6 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 6 times. Man C had 18 attempts, 3 big, and hit the target 4 times. Semenyo had 4 attempts, with the big chances falling to Evanilson (2), Semenyo (2) Kluivert and Smith. Our 6 big chances are the highest of the season.
AFCB won 16 of 19 tackles. Semenyo, Senesi and Smith all won 3 from 3.
Senesi made the most defensive actions with 12. Cook made the most interceptions (3), Senesi made the most recoveries (7), Zabarnyi made the most clearances (9) and four players made blocks.
The foul count was AFCB 11, Man C 5. Christie made the most fouls (2) with Semenyo fouled three times.
According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to a chance.
Your say…
DangerousDave
I find it hard to believe that the chance that Evanilson missed at the start of the second half was a one-in-ten chance, whereas the one he scored from was a four-in-ten chance. That just doesn’t seem right to me, the one he missed seemed a lot easier whereas the one he conveyed seemed very difficult.
Matt Stevenson responded…
I have sympathy with this – I think how much a person is stretching isn’t included in the calculation. I think for the first that maybe Ederson was on him too quickly but thought it would be higher. Note that Understat, had us at 2.46 so they may have rated it higher. But, in terms of observed stats – he did score one and not the other, but my instinct was the first was easier.
I’ve just had a look Understat had the first chance at 0.42 and the second at 0.3. Opta were 0.10 and 0.37. – To join the conversation, click here.