Everton vs Tottenham: Opposition Analysis |  Will the Goals Start to Flow at Last?

Having failed to achieve liftoff last Wednesday in succumbing 1-0 at Goodison Park to Aston Villa, the Blues will try to make it second-time lucky this afternoon. With more than half the season in the rear view window, Everton are running out of games to put some distance between themselves and their fellow strugglers down at the unfashionable end of the Premier League table.

David Moyes and his troops will be able to get some valuable training sessions under their belts with the team back to playing just one game per week for a little while, but before we get there, the Toffees must first deal with Tottenham Hotspur. The struggling Londoners arrive at Goodison sitting in an unflattering 15th spot, just one place above today’s hosts — although the points gap stands at seven.

Form

Spurs attained a creditable fifth-place finish last term, Ange Postecoglou’s first in charge. The Australian had been heavily packed by his new employers and was again last summer, to the tune of €110m net. The club focused on a new ready-made main centre forward, and opted for Bournemouth’s 26-year-old Dominic Solanke, for a fee of €64.3m. Otherwise, investments were made on young players, with teenagers Archie Gray (€41.3m, Leeds United), Wilson Odobert (€29.3m, Burnley) and Lucas Bergvall (€10m, Djurgården) brought in.

A host of players departed, with many – such as veteran winger Ivan Perisic, centre half Eric Dier and former big money signing Tanguy Ndombélé – leaving on free transfers. Whereas academy graduate Oliver Skipp recouped a substantial €23.5m fee for the club from his move to Leicester City and failed fullback Emerson Royal a moderate €15m (AC Milan), Spurs took a bath on midfielder Giovani Lo Celso, who arrived for €32m in 2020, but raised a paltry €5m from Real Betis in the summer.

The North Londoners had faded late last season, missing out on Champions League qualification as a result and got off to a sluggish start this term, picking up only one win (a 4-0 hammering of Everton, wouldn’t you know it) from their opening four league games. Whilst progressing in both domestic cups, in addition to their involvement in this season’s expanded Europa League competition, Tottenham recovered their league form, alternating big wins over the likes of Brentford, Manchester United, West ham United and Manchester City, with defeats.

Following that 4-0 crushing of City, however, Spurs have undergone an elongated run of poor form, resulting from a combination of injuries in key areas and a packed schedule, which has resulted in just one win from their last nine league fixtures. A 5-0 massacre of hapless Southampton aside, the London outfit has lost six of their last eight, shipping a combined 18 goals during this period. Last time out, the Lilywhites blew a lead in the North London derby against Arsenal, with some poor defending seeing them beaten 2-1.

Style of Play

Postecoglou is committed to his methods, which concentrate on aggressive attacking play, anchored by a very high defensive line. When it works, as against a very passive Blues team early in the season, they can carve open opponents with the sheer quality of their football. However, their high line can be exploited and they have difficulty in establishing control of a game, when the opposition is more active and threatening than Everton were that day. The under-fire Australian boss favours a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 system, with a wide, expansive style and rampaging fullbacks.

The visitors boast a high-octane attack, which has generated an xG of 36.7 (ranking sixth in the division), from which they’ve overachieved, scoring 43 goals — second only to league leaders Liverpool. They produce 14.6 shots per 90 minutes (ranked fifth) and score heavily from counter attacks (joint leaders, with ten) and set-pieces (seven, ranked joint fourth), as well as from general play. The Londoners boss possession, ranking fourth with 57.3% and pass accurately, completing 85.6% — which ranks sixth. They probe for openings in the opposition half and rarely go direct with their passing (just 6.2% are long balls). Their attack is balanced, across the entire width of the pitch, favouring no particular zone.

Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images

Defensively, it doesn’t look so good. They’ve shipped 32 goals (ranking joint 13th in the division) from an alarming xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) metric of 35.1 (16th), which indicates they are even more vulnerable. Spurs “only” permit an average of 12.5 efforts on their goal per game (ninth-ranked), suggesting that they tend to face more dangerous chances than most — no doubt due to their playing style, which can leave them exposed. They are especially vulnerable in transition, which might be expected and have conceded five times from counterattacks, joint second-worst.

Player Assessment

With Son Heung-min not quite hitting his usual levels this season, Dejan Kulusevski may offer more of a threat to today’s hosts. The Swede leads the side in both SCA (Shot-Creating Actions), with 5.63 and key passes (2.73) per 90 minutes. He moves forward well with the ball, averaging 5.24 progressive carries per 90 and attempts a team-high 4.49 dribbles per game — though a completion rate of 35.7% isn’t that impressive.

22-year-old midfielder Pape Matar Sarr will likely be tasked with protecting a fragile, ad hoc Spurs defence. The Senegalese isn’t positionally disciplined, but does offer an athletic, combative presence. He leads the visitors in ball recoveries (6.26) and adds 4.07 combined tackles and interceptions per match.

Solution

Everton showed some signs of life in an attacking sense midweek and this game offers a golden opportunity for the team to do some damage, with only one member of the starting Spurs defence available to take to the Goodison pitch, and a young recently signed goalkeeper between the sticks. 21-year-old Czech stopper Antonín Kinský may be one for the future, but in the present, in his only outing to date for his new club, he appeared to struggle with the physicality of the Gunners on set-pieces and let Leandro Trossard’s long range effort go right through him for Arsenal’s winner.

The back four consists of third-choice centre half Radu Drăgușin, who has yet to convince since arriving in England, alongside 18-year-old midfielder/fullback Gray, who’s been thrown in at the deep end. At left back is backup right back Djed Spence. Another teenager, Bergvall, will probably start alongside Sarr in midfield. This is an inexperienced unit at the back and in the centre of the park, and if the Blues can’t create opportunities against them, then this is a worry.

Photo by Catherine Ivill – AMA/Getty Images

Of course, in attack the Londoners are elite level, boasting plenty of pace and goal threat, so the hosts will have to be a lot sharper in possession than was the case against Villa, or they’ll be punished. But Tottenham have been unconvincing for a while and Postecoglou has been fractious in press conferences, showing his frustration. In his efforts to find some kind of structural balance to his banged-up side, the former Celtic boss has dropped James Maddison, probably the best pure footballer in his squad, which I find a bizarre move.

Everton need to show the energy and willingness to put pressure on the opposition that they showed on Wednesday, but to cut out the errors when they try to move the ball forward in a controlled, but quick fashion. Spurs may well find it tough going if the home side are committed and physical, and get the crowd behind them. The visitors will always present a danger, but I have a feeling that the Toffees can pull this off — if Moyes makes a couple of changes to the lineup and sends his team out to play with belief.

Prediction: Everton 2-1 Tottenham

Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, whoscored.com and fbref.com