Written by Matt Stevenson
Here is the xG from the Newcastle game, which against all expectations AFCB dominated. In the first three minutes, we had two big chances. Ouattara’s was the better chance (rated 1 in 5) from close in, whilst Semenyo shot over from near the penalty spot (1 in 10). Two minutes later we were 1-0 up, Semenyo pulling the ball back for Kluivert to find the far corner (1 in 7). The game then quietened down although Newcastle equalised with their second attempt, a corner found Guimaraes unmarked to head home (1 in 16). Near the ned of the half AFCB pushed on, with Ouattara heading over (1 in 7), Kluivert scoring after Christie won the ball, fed Ouattara who put Kluivert through (1 in 10) and headers from Christie (18%) and from Huijsen (1 in 10). At half time the xG was Newcastle 0.27 and AFCB 1.06.
The second half again was largely AFCB’s with three 1 in 10 efforts in the first 10 minutes from Brooks, Christie and Zabarnyi. In the 69th minute, Brooks had a flick that was well saved by Dubrovka (28%). For all of the chances, it was still only 2-1 to AFCB and Newcastle could equalise. In the 88th minute, Isak lined up a free-kick with about the same rating as James’ for Chelsea (1 in 16). Thankfully, Isak hit the wall. In the 2nd minute of injury time, Kluivert smashed one from distance into the left corner having given the keeper the impression he was curling it into the right corner (1 in 25). Newcastle then had their two best chances with Gordon having a 1 in 4 chance cleared off the line by Huijsen and Willock (1 in 7). Prior to this, Jebbison had a shot saved (1 in 7) before at the death Kerkez pushed forward, did a step over and fired into the far corner (1 in 20). The final xG was Newcastle 0.79 AFCB 2.26; Understat had a bigger margin in favour of AFCB at 0.84 vs 2.70.
Man of the match against NewcastleKluivert
Christie
Dango
Kerkez
Huijsen
Brooks
Cook
Semenyo
Someone else
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There were 2 changes to the team who drew at Chelsea with Kepa replacing Travers and Kluivert replacing the injured Hill. Given the injuries, the team largely picked itself. The formation was as expected. with Cook (4) dropping to right back and Adams (12) and Christie (10) holding the centre midfield. Ouattara (11) was the nominal centre forward but dropped deep, with Kluivert (17) more advanced as were Brooks (7) on the right and Semenyo (24) on the left. With little experience on the bench, changes were left late, with Brooks (7) being replaced by Jebbison (21). With the game effectively over, in the 97th minute, Winterburn (47) and Rees-Dottin (51) replaced Kluivert and Ouattara, although neither touched the ball and I’ve excluded them from the graphic.
Christie attempted the most passes with 43, Christie and Semenyo attempted joint-most in the opposition’s half (31) whilst Semenyo attempted most in the final third (23). We averaged 76% pass completion. Of the starting 11, Adams, Kerkez and Semenyo had completion of 85% or over.
AFCB players were tackled 17 times with Brooks being tackled 4 times.
AFCB attempted 24 crosses, being successful with 7 (Brooks with 4 of these).
AFCB created 15 chances (4 big). Newcastle created 7 chances, 1 big.
We had 19 attempts (4 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 19 times. Newcastle had 13 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target 4 times. Four players had 3 attempts each (Brooks, Christie, Ouattara and Kluivert).
AFCB won 21 of 29 tackles. Christie won 9 from 10. Both season highs.
Huijsen made the most defensive actions with 18. Christie and Huijsen made 3 interceptions each, Kepa made the most recoveries (9). Zabarnyi made most clearances (9) and Huijsen made 4 blocks.
The foul count was AFCB 18, Newcastle 7. Christie made the most fouls (4) but was also fouled the most (twice).
According to Opta, no AFCB player made an error leading to a chance.
Your say…
JohnHold
Thanks, as usual, excellent stuff.
Please can you remind me, is the rating for an XG captured when the player receives the ball or when he shoots?
Just comparing Jebbison yesterday (1 in 7), Kerkez yesterday (1 in 20) and Semenyo’s goal at Chelsea (1 in 40), these seem like the opposite of the relative probabilities when they received the ball
Matt Stevenson responded…
Thanks. I think xG is calculated when the person takes the shot, but xA (expected assist) is when the person receives the ball. So the xG of Maradona’s wonder goal against England would be very high when he shoots, but the xA would be practically zero.
I take all the actual values with a pinch of salt, but that said (I wrote this before I understood what you’d written!).
Kerkez’s value seems low (I’d have expected more like a 1 in 10 from the numbers I’ve looked at whilst doing this – but he didn’t have much of an area to shoot at that the keeper wouldn’t reach.
Semenyo’s doesn’t feel that low, I was very surprised he scored. Not many would have had the power (and the placement) to score from there.
Jebbison’s looked the easiest of the three to me. but I’d expect strikers to not score there as the keeper was advanced and stood up.
But, yes, if it is from when they receive the ball, I agree, Jebbison had little chance from there. – To join the conversation, please click here.