In football, as in life, it is often funny how things work out.
Take Leeds United’s idea of how their summer 2023 transfer window might look and the way it actually transpired.
By any estimation, Leeds played their post-relegation cards well but some of what went on ran contrary to the plan. With very few exceptions — Willy Gnonto being the one — the players they had envisaged keeping left en masse. The players they thought they would sell were never very close to going. And through that evolution of commitment and human resources, a credible Championship squad was formed.
None of which is to say Leeds got here by chance. There were conscious decisions at various points that turned expendable footballers into worthwhile retentions. There were signings on top of existing squad members that gave Leeds the bite they needed to start strong in their promotion push.
It might be going too far to describe that window as one that drained the swamp but the new, different dressing room it created did the club a favour, ridding the squad of much of its association with relegation.
What Leeds are finding, and what will be on the minds of those who call the shots at Elland Road, is that retentions in the January window ahead of them will matter much more than those they failed to negotiate in the lead-up to the summer deadline on September 1.
Leeds’ doomed flailing in the Premier League last season made the market value of virtually everyone depreciate. A semblance of order and quality in the second tier is reversing the trend of goods looking soiled. Illan Meslier is settling down. Pascal Struijk has broken out of that period where his vibe was that of a walk to the gallows. Georginio Rutter is playing like he should have been expensive. Crysencio Summerville looks as good as he thinks he is.
New manager Daniel Farke has played a big part in this and it is apparent that his refusal to look ruffled when things were awry at Elland Road was not a bluff.
More often than not, he was philosophical about Leeds’ lack of control over their squad in the summer.
He fought to cling onto Gnonto despite the player’s best efforts to leave and he was mildly annoyed by the club buckling late on over Luis Sinisterra’s loan to top-flight Bournemouth, although Leeds digging their heels in over the Colombian would only have sparked an unhelpful legal dispute. But as a rule, Farke did not see many of the departures as insurmountable — if players were shaping to leave, then they should probably get on with it.
This time around, though? Fifteen games into a 46-match regular season, Farke is sitting on a clutch of players he would simply not want to lose. However low their individual standing was at the end of last season, there are few prominent outgoings now that would not disrupt, or at least seriously threaten to disrupt, the flow he has developed.
Leeds are not third in the Championship by chance. Their consistency and reliable patterns of play are the product of planning that identified the squad’s strengths, accepted the squad’s limits and built a machine in which most of the parts seem to fit.
There is no need to explain why Leeds bought Ethan Ampadu or Glen Kamara. There is no need to explain why they signed Joe Rodon on loan. They pass as very logical targets but only because the club made the effort to do logical things.
Rodon’s loan from Spurs does not have a January recall clause (Jon Hobley/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Not every aspect of what will happen in January is entirely the club’s to dictate, although a source with knowledge of Rodon’s season-long move from Tottenham Hotspur of the Premier League, who spoke off the record for confidentiality reasons, told The Athletic that Spurs did not insist on or include a January recall clause in his loan.
Questions about it arose after the carnage of Spurs’ defeat to Chelsea on Monday — an evening that left coach Ange Postecoglou short of centre-backs. Leeds appear to be protected in that regard and Farke confirmed yesterday that he expects Rodon to be his player until the end of the term.
There was a quiet hope at Elland Road that, after Gnonto’s agitating in the hope of a move back to the top flight with Everton in August, the young winger might smooth the waters by committing to a new contract, but that possibility has not got off the ground yet and Gnonto’s modest amount of minutes this season are part of the reason transfer channels are already chattering about him and his options.
Though Farke fought to keep him in the summer, he has leaned on Gnonto far less than he has Summerville or Dan James.
In the discussion over Gnonto’s injured ankle in September, Farke was adamant the player should have surgery there and then — to remove any question about how fit he was. Leeds place a high financial value on the 20-year-old Italian but it is safe to assume they would not tolerate a second run of August’s scheming; that, to quote Farke’s comment about offering no third chances, they might react differently if Gnonto’s future became a distraction again at the turn of the year.
People who have seen Farke’s work at Leeds say his appreciation of a talented footballer does not stop him being ruthless.
The advantage Leeds have is that, contractually, control has switched from the dressing room to the boardroom.
They are no longer powerless to insist on players honouring deals and the only contracts that are close to expiry are those of the older element of their squad: Liam Cooper, Stuart Dallas, Luke Ayling.
Financially, in profit and sustainability (P&S) terms, the club appear to be in as steady a shape as they could have reasonably expected after relegation. In an interview with The Square Ball podcast in September, Angus Kinnear, the chief executive, implied that the post-relegation accounts were in order, helped by a takeover. Year two in the Championship would be where the pressure to cash in on players arises.
“If we were to remain in the Championship for more than one season, we’d have to make outbound transfers to stay within the P&S limits,” Kinnear said. Which is very much the reality of life in the EFL.
In any case, Farke most likely feels that the odd addition here and there is what will be called for when January comes around.
Performance levels have been such at Leeds that they do not need padding in many areas. Across the team, there are positions where increasing numbers would only accrue footballers with little chance of playing. But another No 10 and some more depth at full-back? Perhaps that would be prudent.
Outside interest, though, is what they have to fend off when the time comes, the unwanted aspect of this looming January window.
Six months on, the resources Leeds held at the end of last season feel like a squad that needed to be broken up.
The squad they have now is one that has to stay together.
(Top photo: George Tewkesbury/PA Images via Getty Images)
