Stat Attack – Fulham v AFC Bournemouth

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here is the xG from the Fulham game. AFCB had much the better of the opening exchanges and had two headers from corners in the 6-yard box from Zabarnyi (1 in 5 that went over) and from Huijsen (1 in 6 that was blocked) and two minutes later Brooks had an attempt that went straight at Leno from just inside the box (1 in 3). Fulham were offering little, Wilson had a 1 in1 2 shot saved by Kepa, as all the chances came AFCB’s way with reasonable chances for Brooks (1 in 16), Evanilson (1 in 12) and Huijsen (1 in 10) before Semenyo had a good chance (23%) that hit Leno. The sucker punch came just before half time when from a corner Jiminez evaded Kerkez (who was blocked off) to glance a header into the far post. Opta rated the chance as 1 in 33, which seemed a little low although there were plenty of bodies to avoid. That was the last chance of the half and at the break, the xG was Fulham 0.23, AFCB 1.23. Two events do not appear on the xG timeline though. The first was Hill’s disallowed goal for a foul by Semenyo; I’ve not seen it back, but the referee blew before the goal was scored not allowing a VAR intervention, Sky and others called the foul ‘soft’. The second was just after the goal when there was a VAR check on a Christie tackle that stayed as a yellow (with a mix of opinions on whether it should be a red).

The second half was more even, although AFCB started the brighter and in the 51st minute equalised as Hill played through Evanilson who smashed it from close range past Leno (1 in 6) from a tight angle. From the 66th minute, there was a flurry of chances. Jiminez had a header saved by Kepa (1 in 6) and a rebound header (also 1 in 6) cleared by Huijsen. Ouattara then released Evanilson through on the keeper but a heavy touch meant no shot (and thus no xG). Ouattara then passed to Billing who tried to wrong-foot Leno but the keeper got a leg on it (1 in 6). Two minutes later, Fulham were in front again, a Robinson cross found Wilson who had ghosted into the gap between Cook and Huijsen to head in well (1 in 20). In the 79th minute, Fulham had their best chance which fell to Iwobi (3 in 10) that missed the target. For a game that had been end to end, there weren’t many more chances, although AFCB made one big one. Semenyo’s shot was blocked to Ouattara who calmly dinked the ball over the keeper for it to roll slowly into the net (1 in 4). The final xG was Fulham 1.11 AFCB 1.98; Understat had a similar size margin in favour of AFCB at 0.96 vs 1.71.

Man of the match against Fulham Dango Vote Semenyo Vote Huijsen Vote Evanilson Vote Hill Vote Someone else Vote

There was 4 changes to the team who drew with C Palace. Hill replaced Aarons at right back, Evanilson replaced Unal at centre forward, Billing came in for the suspended Kluivert and Brooks started instead of Ouattara. Adams had a ‘niggle’ and didn’t make the bench, meaning we were very light, with two keepers and 4 players from the under-18s.

The formation was largely as anticipated although Kerkez (3) was less advanced than normal, potentially as Fulham was targeting the space behind Semenyo (24). Our first change came in the 63rd minute at 1-1 with Ouattara (11) replacing Brooks (7). From that point Semenyo and Ouattara swapped wings a lot, meaning Ouattara’s average position was central, with Semenyo’s moving in from the left. Immediately we went 2-1 down, Billing (29) was brought off for Unal (26) although the lack of the extra midfielder was ceding a lot of possession. In the 82nd minute, Iraola reverted back to 1 up front, with Evanilson (9) replaced by debutant Winterburn (47) and Aarons (37) replacing Hill (23) at right back. Brooks (7) being furthest forward is more due to the fact that AFCB were the dominant team for the first hour, and then Fulham came stronger, rather than Brooks being intentionally the most advanced.

Kerkez had the most touches, 76, in total. Semenyo had the most touches in the opposition half (54) and in the Final third (36)

Huijsen attempted the most passes with 57, Cook attempted the most in the opposition’s half (35) and Semenyo attempted the most in the final third (20). We averaged 79% pass completion. Of the starting 11, Cook, Evanilson and Kerkez, had completion 85% or over, Cook had a very impressive 49 successes from 51 attempts.

AFCB players tried to take on a man 20 times being successful 8 times (Brooks, Ouattara, Kerkez and Semenyo were successful 2 times each).

AFCB players were tackled 26 times with Semenyo being tackled 8 times.

AFCB attempted 25 crosses, being successful with 6 (4 times from Cook and twice from Kerkez).

AFCB had 31 touches in the opposition’s penalty area with Evanilson having 6. Fulham had 22 touches in our penalty area.

AFCB created 12 chances (3 big). Fulham created 9 chances, none big. Cook created 4 chances with Billing, Hill and Semenyo creating the big chances.

We had 16 attempts (3 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 8 times. Fulham had 11 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target 6 times. Brooks and Evanilson had 3 attempts each, with the big chances falling to Ouattara, Evanilson and Semenyo.

AFCB won 25 of 40 aerials duals. Both Huijsen and Semenyo won 5 from 6 and Ouattara won 4 from 5.

AFCB won 12 of 22 tackles. Billing won 5 from 6.

Kerkez made most defensive actions with 18, although the bulk of these were recoveries as Fulham tried to play it into the gap behind Semenyo. Hill, Huijsen., Kerkez and Zabarnyi made 2 interception each, Kerkez made most recoveries (13). Zabarnyi made most clearances (7) and Huijsen and Zabarnyi made one block each.

The Opta expected goals had Brooks highest (0.43) although Ouattara, Evanilson, Huijsen and Semenyo were at 0.25 or higher. For expected assists, Cook was highest at 0.49 with Ouattara second with 0.29.

The foul count was AFCB 16, Fulham 7 with the ref seeming (to my eyes) to give a number of soft fouls to Fulham. Huijsen and Zabarnyi made joint-most fouls (3) with Christie and Semenyo fouled the most (2).

According to Opta, no AFCB player made an error leading to a chance.

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