West Ham are not a club that hires and fires managers willy nilly so it says everything that Julen Lopetegui is on the brink.
David Sullivan very much prides himself on being an owner who doesn’t sack managers lightly at West Ham.
While noble and very much how things should be – in an ideal world at least – that is not necessarily a trait that breeds success in the modern game.
There is little evidence to lean on nowadays across football that blindly sticking by one manager for a prolonged period brings success.
As a general rule managers come and go much more frequently than in the past.
From West Ham’s point of view there is some evidence is there to suggest patience can be rewarded. Although ultimately all things run their course. Some quicker than others.
In the Premier League era, West Ham’s most successful managers David Moyes, Sam Allardyce, Alan Pardew and Harry Redknapp all took charge of over 160 games.
Slaven Bilic’s Farewell Boleyn season was special, but he oversaw 109.
It suggests time can pay off at West Ham.
But would the Hammers have achieved more if they had changed managers at the right time instead of giving the wrong people too much rope?
Avram Grant and Glenn Roeder being the most obvious and ultimately disastrous examples.
Sullivan has briefed Athletic journalist David Ornstein this week that he may have to go against his modus operandi of ‘honouring contracts’ if things don’t improve quickly under Julen Lopetegui.
The Spaniard is only on a two-year deal with a third automatically triggered by qualification for Europe.
As things stand there is no danger of that clause being activated this season.
West Ham’s owners have to weigh up what would cost more.
History could eerily repeat itself at West Ham
Lopetegui’s compensation if he were to be axed.
Or the cost of holding on to him too long in the faint hope it will come good. That could effectively waste an entire season and fan interest – which is already waning – would dwindle so much it would start seriously impacting income.
And that’s when owners really start to take notice.
Hammers supporters have left six of Lopetegui’s 13 games so far long before the final whistle. In their thousands.
Players are either not buying into the message from the head coach or he is not getting it across to them.
Either way speculation is rife the former Spain manager’s time is nearly up.
Now history could eerily repeat itself at West Ham and it’s terrible for Lopetegui.
West Ham’s 18th permanent manager has been likened to Grant after his miserable start to life in east London.
In more ways than one – for the results and performances and quite literally being miserable.
But on closer inspection, Lopetegui is actually much more similar to Manuel Pellegrini.
In fact the parallels are astonishing.
When the Chilean was appointed it was very much a Sullivan pick. Just as Lopetegui was in the summer.
Pellegrini was something of a vanity project for the Hammers’ majority owner.
And he lavished what was at the time an unprecedented transfer splurge on Pellegrini. Just like Lopetegui – albeit with Tim Steidten overseeing recruitment as Mario Husillos had done back then.
Like Lopetegui, Pellegrini was also a former Real Madrid boss.
They both wanted West Ham to ‘play like a big team’. That has meant a naively high line, trying to play possession football and not too much concentration on the opposition’s tactics.
Both Pellegrini and Lopetegui followed Moyes at West Ham.
Pellegrini did ok in his first season, finishing 10th. But it all unravelled in the second.
And the feeling around the club then is remarkably similar to what we’re seeing now at the London Stadium.
Omens are terrible for Lopetegui – the new Pellegrini
The outcome could be remarkably – almost spookily – similar too.
Because Lopetegui could be sacked in December after playing Leicester – just like Pellegrini – if things don’t pick up.
West Ham play Newcastle away and Arsenal at home next.
Daunting fixtures at the best of times, not least when you can barely muster shots at goal let alone performances good enough to win games.
And particularly when without your best player – Mohammed Kudus.
If Lopetegui does survive the international break, many feel it is simply delaying the inevitable given those fixtures.
On form it could be two chastening defeats.
That would see Lopetegui play Leicester – if still in post – most definitely needing to win on December 3rd.
This time West Ham are away from home too – unlike Pellegrini’s side who faced the Foxes at the London Stadium in December 2019.
Pellegrini oversaw a 2-1 defeat which saw him sacked and replaced by Moyes.
The omens do not look good for Lopetegui.
What followed back in 2019-20 was four-and-a-half years of undeniable progress at West Ham.
If Lopetegui is sacked after failing to beat Leicester, the Hammers will be hoping his replacement can spark the club back into life just like back then.
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