Somehow, it is already that time again. While Tottenham Hotspur has struggled to meet expectations this season (at least in the league), it could be argued that Arsenal has fared even worse relative to its ambitions — despite the complete implosion of Manchester City, the back-to-back runners-up remain stuck in second place, overtaken by Liverpool, who are now heavy favorites to win the Premier League.
Arsenal is still expected to win Wednesday’s North London Derby, especially at home. Though Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs have performed well against the big six, this match does not set up well for their strengths. Anything can happen in a derby, and Tottenham will hope that the numbers and recent history fly out the window. Desperately in need of a spark, this match offers Spurs a chance for a revival.
Arsenal (3rd, 40pts) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (13th, 24pts)
Date: Wednesday, January 15
Time: 3:00 pm ET, 8:00 pm UK
Location: Emirates Stadium, London
TV: Peacock (US), TNT Sports 1 (UK)
Despite boasting just two league losses, Arsenal’s seven draws already surpass its total from each of the past two seasons. After a New Year’s Day victory, Mikel Arteta’s squad has faltered, drawing with Brighton in the league, falling behind 0-2 to Newcastle in the League Cup semifinals, and crashing out of the FA Cup against Manchester United. While all is not lost, this run of form raises questions.
Spurs, however, have struggled mightily in this derby. Arsenal has won six of the past eight encounters and has not lost a league NLD at home since 2010/11. The teams did share the points at the Emirates last season, but Arsenal controlled the first fixture this campaign with a narrow victory on the road. This rivalry has felt lopsided in recent years, seemingly irrespective of either team’s form.
Do not give in
Arsenal remains methodical in possession, intent on dictating tempo and disrupting the opponent’s rhythm. Now that the goals are drying up, though, Arteta’s side is losing some of the praise its approach (and set pieces) was receiving. Recent contests have seen healthy xG figures yield little where it counts. For Spurs, patience will be paramount; forcing the issue risks exposing the already-depleted defense. The plan must be to frustrate Arsenal into abandoning its build-up.
Patience does not mean passivity. Heung-min Son scored the equalizer in this fixture last year by capitalizing on a forced turnover. Tottenham’s best opportunities will again likely come in transition. Neither side exceeded 1.0 xG in their September meeting, suggesting the more clinical team will leave happier. Spurs must remain disciplined for the full 90 minutes and not give away clean attempts on goal. If Arsenal is forced to create, its defense could be left open to counters.
Play for the badge
The visitors remain the more injury-stricken side, but Arsenal’s once-fortunate health has finally started to turn. Bukayo Saka’s absence has been clearly felt, and now Gabriel Jesus joins him on the sidelines, further hampering creativity and attacking output. While Tottenham’s injuries — especially along the backline — remain a major concern, Arsenal’s misfortunes could level out this end of the pitch a bit.
With key players missing, unsung heroes will decide this match. For Spurs, contributions from Radu Dragusin, Archie Gray, and Djed Spence have kept them afloat, while new signing Antonin Kinsky has injected fresh energy. There would be no better way to encapsulate this chaotic season than for a makeshift Tottenham defense to somehow steal a result at the Emirates.
